(NTGR) NETGEAR - Ratings and Ratios
Routers, Modems, Switches, Access-Points, Mesh
NTGR EPS (Earnings per Share)
NTGR Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 65.4% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 |
| Alpha Jensen | 7.78 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.484 |
| Beta | 1.091 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.92% |
| Mean DD | 21.23% |
Description: NTGR NETGEAR September 11, 2025
NETGEAR, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTGR) is a global provider of networking hardware and services, operating across three geographic regions—Americas, EMEA, and APAC. The firm structures its business into two distinct segments: Connected Home and NETGEAR for Business.
The Connected Home segment targets residential consumers with a portfolio that includes Wi‑Fi routers, mesh networking systems, broadband modems, Wi‑Fi gateways, range extenders, powerline adapters, and digital displays. Revenue in this segment is increasingly tied to value‑added services such as subscription‑based security, parental‑control software, and technical support, which historically have contributed ~10‑15% of segment revenue and offer higher gross margins than hardware alone.
The NETGEAR for Business segment serves small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs) and managed service providers (MSPs) with professional‑grade routers, enterprise‑class cloud‑managed access points, Ethernet switches, Pro AV solutions, and the Insight remote‑management platform. Cloud‑managed networking has been a growth driver, with Insight subscriptions growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 30% YoY over the past three years, reflecting broader industry migration toward software‑defined networking (SDN) and subscription‑based revenue models.
Distribution is diversified across wholesale distributors, brick‑and‑mortar and e‑commerce retailers, direct‑to‑consumer online channels, value‑added resellers, and broadband service providers. This multi‑channel approach reduces reliance on any single sales conduit but also introduces margin compression in wholesale channels, where average gross margins are typically 20‑25% versus ~35% in direct online sales.
Key economic drivers for NETGEAR include: (1) continued expansion of broadband penetration and the rollout of Wi‑Fi 6/6E standards, which stimulate replacement cycles for consumer routers; (2) the acceleration of remote work and hybrid office models, driving demand for secure, cloud‑managed enterprise networking; (3) growth in the Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem, increasing the need for robust home networking solutions; and (4) macro‑level pricing pressure from low‑cost competitors (e.g., TP‑Link, Xiaomi) that can erode volume‑based revenue if NETGEAR cannot differentiate via software services.
Financially, NETGEAR has historically reported revenue in the $1.3‑$1.5 billion range, with operating margins hovering around 5‑7% after accounting for R&D and SG&A expenses. Free cash flow generation has been modest, often constrained by inventory levels and working‑capital demands tied to component shortages. The company’s balance sheet shows a moderate leverage profile (net debt to EBITDA ~2.5×), providing flexibility for strategic acquisitions in the cloud‑security space.
From a valuation perspective, the primary upside hinges on the successful scaling of Insight subscription revenue and the ability to capture share in the enterprise cloud‑managed networking market, which is projected to grow at a 12‑15% CAGR through 2028. Conversely, downside risks include sustained component supply constraints, margin erosion from price competition, and the potential for slower consumer upgrade cycles if Wi‑Fi 6E adoption stalls.
NTGR Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 983m |
| Sub-Industry | Communications Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 2003-07-31 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 2.76% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
NTGR Dividends
Currently no dividends paidNTGR Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 15.44% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.30 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.73 |
| Current Volume | 355.8k |
| Average Volume | 392.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-26.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 42.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -23.80pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 63.29% (prev 73.21%; Δ -9.91pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.58m > Net Income -26.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.85 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (28.8m) change vs 12m ago -2.07% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 36.01% (prev 29.75%; Δ 6.26pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 83.61% (prev 78.85%; Δ 4.75pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -5.41 (EBITDA TTM -29.8m / Interest Expense TTM -5.83m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.57
| (A) 0.55 = (Total Current Assets 681.9m - Total Current Liabilities 239.2m) / Total Assets 810.8m |
| (B) -0.64 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -521.1m / Total Assets 810.8m |
| (C) -0.04 = EBIT TTM -31.5m / Avg Total Assets 836.7m |
| (D) -1.71 = Book Value of Equity -521.0m / Total Liabilities 304.0m |
| Total Rating: -0.57 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 31.33
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.94% = -0.97 |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.94% = -0.73 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.08 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.39 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -16.78)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE -4.96% = -0.83 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -47.28% = -3.55 |
| 9. EPS Trend 17.96% = 0.90 |
What is the price of NTGR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.68%, over one month by -15.13%, over three months by +16.06% and over the past year by +18.65%.
Is NETGEAR a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of NTGR is around 27.30 USD . This means that NTGR is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -6.73%.
Is NTGR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTGR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.3 | 24.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.3 | 24.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.8 | 5.2% |
NTGR Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025
P/E Trailing = 15.5459
P/E Forward = 238.0952
P/S = 1.4087
P/B = 1.8476
P/EG = 2.84
Beta = 1.091
Revenue TTM = 699.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -31.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -29.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 30.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 21.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 43.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -160.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 699.7m USD (983.1m + Debt 43.0m - CCE 326.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.41 (Ebit TTM -31.5m / Interest Expense TTM -5.83m)
FCF Yield = -1.94% (FCF TTM -13.5m / Enterprise Value 699.7m)
FCF Margin = -1.94% (FCF TTM -13.5m / Revenue TTM 699.6m)
Net Margin = -3.73% (Net Income TTM -26.1m / Revenue TTM 699.6m)
Gross Margin = 36.01% ((Revenue TTM 699.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 447.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.15% (prev 37.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 699.7m / Total Assets 810.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 1.41m / Debt 43.0m)
Taxrate = -18.21% (negative due to tax credits) (736.0k / -4.04m)
NOPAT = -37.3m (EBIT -31.5m * (1 - -18.21%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 2.85 (Total Current Assets 681.9m / Total Current Liabilities 239.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 43.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 506.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.39 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -160.5m / EBITDA -29.8m)
Debt / FCF = 11.85 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -160.5m / FCF TTM -13.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 526.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.22% (Net Income -26.1m / Total Assets 810.8m)
RoE = -4.96% (Net Income TTM -26.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 526.3m)
RoCE = -5.66% (EBIT -31.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 526.3m + L.T.Debt 30.6m))
RoIC = -6.99% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -37.3m / Invested Capital 532.8m)
WACC = 9.78% (E(983.1m)/V(1.03b) * Re(10.04%) + D(43.0m)/V(1.03b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(-0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.47%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -13.5m)
EPS Correlation: 17.96 | EPS CAGR: 7.09% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: -47.28 | Revenue CAGR: -10.33% | SUE: 2.46 | # QB: 6
Additional Sources for NTGR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle