(NTRA) Natera - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Diagnostics & Research | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 26.690m USD | Total Return: 33.3% in 12m

Prenatal Testing, Oncology Diagnostics, Organ Monitoring, Genetic Screening

Total Rating 45

Safety 27

Buy Signal -0.29

Diagnostics & Research
Industry Rotation: +7.4

Market Cap: 26.7B
Avg Turnover: 315M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility44.4%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.54%

VaR vs Median2.97%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.82

Rel. Str. IBD44.8

Rel. Str. Peer Group29.8

Character TTM

Beta0.902

Beta Downside0.670

Hurst Exponent0.342

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD39.94%

CAGR/Max DD1.56

CAGR/Mean DD7.09

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -0.13
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 45.08%
Rev. Trend: 99.7%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 13

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -28.2 is critical

Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation

Altman Z'' -5.28 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: NTRA Natera

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is a diagnostics company specializing in molecular testing and personalized genetic analysis. The company’s portfolio spans three primary clinical areas: oncology, women’s health, and organ health. Key products include Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) test for minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring, and Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT).

The company operates within the precision medicine sector, utilizing a business model that combines direct sales to medical providers with a cloud-based distribution platform called Constellation. This software-as-a-service (SaaS) model allows external laboratories to run Natera’s proprietary algorithms locally, expanding the company’s global footprint without the need for extensive physical infrastructure. The diagnostics industry is currently characterized by high barriers to entry due to stringent regulatory requirements and the need for extensive clinical validation data.

Natera’s oncology business focuses on longitudinal monitoring, which transitions molecular testing from a one-time event to a recurring diagnostic service throughout a patients treatment lifecycle. Investors may find it useful to examine ValueRay for deeper insights into the companys valuation and market positioning. Beyond oncology, the firm provides screening for hereditary conditions and transplant rejection through its Prospera and Renasight panels.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Signatera oncology volume growth drives long-term revenue and market share expansion
Medicare reimbursement decisions for MRD testing impact core profitability and margins
Panorama prenatal screening leadership maintains stable cash flow for R&D investment
Ongoing patent litigation outcomes influence competitive positioning and legal expense volatility
Operating leverage improvements accelerate the timeline toward sustainable GAAP net profitability

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 4.0

Net Income: -226.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.40 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 43.73% < 20% (prev 57.38%; Δ -13.66% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 211.0m > Net Income -226.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.96 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (141.5m) vs 12m ago 5.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 65.16% > 18% (prev 0.62%; Δ 6.45k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 115.1% > 50% (prev 105.7%; Δ 9.38% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -28.24 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -274.6m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)

Altman Z'' -5.28

A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.65b - Total Current Liabilities 558.3m) / Total Assets 2.61b
B: -1.09 (Retained Earnings -2.86b / Total Assets 2.61b)
C: -0.13 (EBIT TTM -285.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.17b)
D: -3.40 (Book Value of Equity -2.86b / Total Liabilities 840.4m)
Altman-Z'' = -5.28 = D

Beneish M 1.00

DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 417.6m/318.2m, Revenue 2.50b/1.83b)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 65.16% / 61.81%)
AQI: 9.06 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 2.50b / 1.83b)
TATA: -0.17 (NI -226.3m - CFO 211.0m) / TA 2.61b)
Beneish M = 1.77 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of NTRA shares? As of May 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 203.69 with a total of 1,491,426 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.03%, over one month by -2.21%, over three months by -2.94% and over the past year by +33.26%.

Is NTRA a buy, sell or hold? Natera has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.48. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NTRA.

StrongBuy: 12
Buy: 8
Hold: 0
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRA price?

Analysts Target Price	260.9	28.1%

Natera (NTRA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 May 2026

P/S = 10.6719
P/B = 15.633
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = -285.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -274.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 145.0m USD (estimated: total debt 240.1m - short term 95.1m)
Short Term Debt = 95.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 399.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 159.8m
Net Debt = -688.1m USD (calculated: Debt 399.9m - CCE 1.09b)
Enterprise Value = 26.00b USD (26.69b + Debt 399.9m - CCE 1.09b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -28.24 (Ebit TTM -285.6m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)
EV/FCF = 282.6x (Enterprise Value 26.00b / FCF TTM 92.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.35% (FCF TTM 92.0m / Enterprise Value 26.00b)
FCF Margin = 3.68% (FCF TTM 92.0m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = -9.05% (Net Income TTM -226.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 65.16% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 871.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.80% (prev 67.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.95 (Enterprise Value 26.00b / Total Assets 2.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.22% (Interest Expense 892k / Debt 399.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -225.6m (EBIT -285.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.96 (Total Current Assets 1.65b / Total Current Liabilities 558.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 399.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.51 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -688.1m / EBITDA -274.6m)
Debt / FCF = -7.48 (Net Debt -688.1m / FCF TTM 92.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.50b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.41% (Net Income -226.3m / Total Assets 2.61b)
RoE = -5.19% (Net Income TTM -226.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.36b)
RoCE = -6.34% (EBIT -285.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.36b + L.T.Debt 145.0m))
RoIC = -21.22% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -225.6m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 9.03% (E(26.69b)/V(27.09b) * Re(9.16%) + D(399.9m)/V(27.09b) * Rd(0.22%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 7.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.13% ; FCFF base≈89.3m ; Y1≈58.6m ; Y5≈26.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.94 (EV 449.6m - Net Debt -688.1m = Equity 1.14b / Shares 143.2m; r=9.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.68 | Revenue CAGR: 45.08% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 13
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.51 | Chg30d=+5.68% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.36 | Chg30d=+18.55% | Revisions=-14% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.67 | Chg30d=+9.80% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=-10.1% | GrowthRev=+21.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.38 | Chg30d=+43.41% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+77.0% | GrowthRev=+18.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%