(NTRA) Natera - Ratings and Ratios
Prenatal Screening, Carrier Screening, Cancer Monitoring, Transplant Assessment, Genetic Profiling
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 67.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.81% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 23.71 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.674 |
| Beta | 1.224 |
| Beta Downside | 1.144 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.94% |
| Mean DD | 8.29% |
| Median DD | 5.94% |
Description: NTRA Natera October 16, 2025
Natera (NTRA) is a global molecular diagnostics firm that leverages next-generation sequencing to offer a portfolio of non-invasive prenatal tests (Panorama, Vistara, Horizon), hereditary cancer and carrier-screening assays (Empower, Anora), and specialty oncology and transplant monitoring tools (Signatera, Altera, Prospera, Renasight). The company also provides the cloud-based analytics platform Constellation and distributes its products through a mix of direct sales, laboratory partners, and collaborations with BGI Genomics and Foundation Medicine.
In FY 2024 Natera reported $1.03 billion in revenue, reflecting a 28 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by strong growth in its prenatal and oncology segments. The firm’s gross margin expanded to 78 % as it scaled its high-margin NIPT assays, while its cash-flow conversion improved to $180 million, underscoring the capital-efficient nature of its SaaS-enabled test platform. Key sector drivers include rising global demand for non-invasive prenatal screening-projected to exceed $5 billion by 2028-and expanding reimbursement for liquid-biopsy oncology tests, which together create a tailwind for Natera’s recurring-revenue model.
If you’re looking to deepen your valuation analysis, a quick review of ValueRay’s quantitative models for NTRA can surface hidden upside and risk factors worth exploring further.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (-309.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 127.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.22pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 47.49% (prev 66.66%; Δ -19.16pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 194.3m > Net Income -309.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.27 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (137.2m) change vs 12m ago 10.84% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 63.70% (prev 57.66%; Δ 6.04pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 124.1% (prev 96.29%; Δ 27.76pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -69.90 (EBITDA TTM -268.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -7.84
| (A) 0.55 = (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 442.0m) / Total Assets 1.82b |
| (B) -1.55 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.82b / Total Assets 1.82b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.55 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.18 = EBIT TTM -305.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.71b |
| (D) -4.96 = Book Value of Equity -2.82b / Total Liabilities 569.3m |
| Total Rating: -7.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 47.90
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.30% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.42% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.15 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.19 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -33.77)% |
| 7. RoE -25.07% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 99.20% |
| 9. EPS Trend 84.39% |
What is the price of NTRA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.13%, over one month by +23.36%, over three months by +45.44% and over the past year by +40.77%.
Is NTRA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 12
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 234.2 | -1.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 234.2 | -1.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 313.1 | 32% |
NTRA Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/S = 15.0379
P/B = 25.4197
Beta = 1.643
Revenue TTM = 2.12b USD
EBIT TTM = -305.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -268.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 118.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 80.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 184.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -856.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 30.97b USD (31.83b + Debt 184.7m - CCE 1.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -69.90 (Ebit TTM -305.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m)
FCF Yield = 0.30% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Enterprise Value 30.97b)
FCF Margin = 4.42% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Net Margin = -14.61% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Gross Margin = 63.70% ((Revenue TTM 2.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 768.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.91% (prev 63.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 17.00 (Enterprise Value 30.97b / Total Assets 1.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 1.04m / Debt 184.7m)
Taxrate = -0.24% (negative due to tax credits) (207.0k / -87.3m)
NOPAT = -306.2m (EBIT -305.5m * (1 - -0.24%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 3.27 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 442.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 184.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -856.7m / EBITDA -268.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.16 (Net Debt -856.7m / FCF TTM 93.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -16.97% (Net Income -309.2m / Total Assets 1.82b)
RoE = -25.07% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.23b)
RoCE = -22.60% (EBIT -305.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.23b + L.T.Debt 118.4m))
RoIC = -23.31% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -306.2m / Invested Capital 1.31b)
WACC = 10.46% (E(31.83b)/V(32.01b) * Re(10.52%) + D(184.7m)/V(32.01b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.17% ; FCFE base≈93.6m ; Y1≈61.4m ; Y5≈28.1m
Fair Price DCF = 2.81 (DCF Value 387.8m / Shares Outstanding 138.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 84.39 | EPS CAGR: 79.87% | SUE: -1.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.20 | Revenue CAGR: 38.83% | SUE: 3.26 | # QB: 11
Additional Sources for NTRA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle