NTRA Stock Analysis: Natera | NASDAQ

Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 37.613m USD | 12M Return: 90% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Oncology Diagnostics, Prenatal Screening, Carrier Screening, Transplant Monitoring
Total Rating 57
Safety 32
Buy Signal 0.37
Diagnostics & Research
Industry Rotation: +5.9
Market Cap: 37.6B
Avg Turnover: 400M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility46.8%
VaR 5th Pctl7.91%
VaR vs Median2.47%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.59
Rel. Str. IBD87.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group55.8
Character TTM
Beta0.844
Beta Downside0.467
Hurst Exponent0.421
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD39.94%
CAGR/Max DD1.99
CAGR/Mean DD8.92
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of NTRA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -1.32, "2021-09": -1.63, "2021-12": -1.48, "2022-03": -1.45, "2022-06": -1.5, "2022-09": -1.25, "2022-12": -1.37, "2023-03": -1.23, "2023-06": -0.97, "2023-09": -0.95, "2023-12": -0.64, "2024-03": -0.56, "2024-06": -0.3, "2024-09": -0.26, "2024-12": -0.41, "2025-03": -0.5, "2025-06": -0.74, "2025-09": -0.64, "2025-12": 0.35, "2026-03": -0.6,
Last SUE: -0.14
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of NTRA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 142.026, 2021-09: 158.116, 2021-12: 173.028, 2022-03: 194.133, 2022-06: 198.2, 2022-09: 210.637, 2022-12: 217.252, 2023-03: 241.756, 2023-06: 261.404, 2023-09: 268.306, 2023-12: 311.105, 2024-03: 367.741, 2024-06: 413.351, 2024-09: 439.758, 2024-12: 476.061, 2025-03: 501.83, 2025-06: 546.6, 2025-09: 592.183, 2025-12: 665.5, 2026-03: 696.644,
Rev. CAGR: 45.08%
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 13

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Seasonal Tailwind
Supp Ema20

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -2.3% 12
Feb -1.0% 2
Mar -7.0% 15
Apr -0.6% 2
May +6.7% 44
Jun +4.5% 38
Jul -7.5% 25
Aug +19.2% 57
Sep -4.3% 25
Oct -6.4% 23
Nov -7.7% 6
Dec -5.0% 34

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NTRA Natera

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is a molecular diagnostics company that develops and commercializes genetic testing services globally. Its oncology offerings include Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for molecular residual disease (MRD) monitoring and treatment response; Latitude, a blood-based MRD test for colorectal cancer; and Altera, a tissue-based comprehensive genomic profiling assay. In reproductive health, the company provides Panorama (non-invasive prenatal testing), Horizon (carrier screening), and single-gene NIPT products (Fetal Focus and Vistara). Additional services include Anora for miscarriage tissue analysis, Prospera for solid organ transplant rejection assessment, Renasight for kidney disease, and Empower for hereditary cancer screening.

The company distributes its tests through a direct sales force, laboratory distribution partners, and its Constellation cloud-based platform, serving independent and reference laboratories, hospitals, physician practices, research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies. It also maintains a partnership with BGI Genomics for NGS assay development and a collaboration with Diakonos Oncology in melanoma molecular response. The company is classified within the Health Care sector under the Biotechnology sub-industry and trades as a large-cap stock on the NASDAQ following its 2015 IPO.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Signatera oncology volume drives double-digit revenue growth
  • CMS reimbursement expansions accelerate MRD test adoption
  • Cash burn narrows as oncology gross margins scale
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0
Net Income: -226.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.40 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 43.73% < 20% (prev 57.38%; Δ -13.66% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 211.0m > Net Income -226.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.96 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (141.5m) vs 12m ago 5.01% < -2%
Gross Margin: 65.16% > 18% (prev 61.81%; Δ 3.35% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 115.1% > 50% (prev 105.7%; Δ 9.38% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -27.47 > 6 (EBIT TTM -277.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)
Altman Z'' 0.53
A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.65b - Total Current Liabilities 558.3m) / Total Assets 2.61b
B: -1.09 (Retained Earnings -2.86b / Total Assets 2.61b)
C: -0.13 (EBIT TTM -277.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.17b)
D: 2.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.77b / Total Liabilities 840.4m)
Altman-Z'' = 0.53 = B
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 417.6m/318.2m, Revenue 2.50b/1.83b)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 61.81% / 65.16%)
AQI: 9.06 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 2.50b / 1.83b)
TATA: -0.17 (NI -226.3m - CFO 211.0m) / TA 2.61b)
Beneish M = 1.92 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of NTRA shares?

As of July 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 267.18 with a total of 981,543 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.01%, over one month by +16.77%, over three months by +30.07% and over the past year by +89.99%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 252.30 (which is 5.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is NTRA a buy, sell or hold?

Natera has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.48. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NTRA.

  • StrongBuy: 12
  • Buy: 8
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRA price?
Analysts Target Price 282.1 5.6%
Natera (NTRA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 22 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 37.6b (37.6b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 15.0395
P/B = 21.202
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = -277.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -223.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 145.0m USD (estimated: total debt 240.1m - short term 95.1m)
Short Term Debt = 95.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 399.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 159.8m
Net Debt = -688.1m USD (calculated: Debt 399.9m - CCE 1.09b)
Enterprise Value = 36.9b USD (37.6b + Debt 399.9m - CCE 1.09b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -27.47 (Ebit TTM -277.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)
EV/FCF = 401.3x (Enterprise Value 36.9b / FCF TTM 92.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.25% (FCF TTM 92.0m / Enterprise Value 36.9b)
FCF Margin = 3.68% (FCF TTM 92.0m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = -9.05% (Net Income TTM -226.3m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 65.16% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 871.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.80% (prev 67.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 14.12 (Enterprise Value 36.9b / Total Assets 2.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.53% (Interest Expense 10.1m / Debt 399.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -219.5m (EBIT -277.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.96 (Total Current Assets 1.65b / Total Current Liabilities 558.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 399.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 3.08 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -688.1m / EBITDA -223.8m)
 Debt / FCF = -7.48 (Net Debt -688.1m / FCF TTM 92.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.50b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.41% (Net Income -226.3m / Total Assets 2.61b)
RoE = -15.13% (Net Income TTM -226.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.50b)
RoCE = -16.93% (EBIT -277.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.50b + L.T.Debt 145.0m))
 RoIC = -10.83% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -219.5m / Invested Capital 2.03b)
 WACC = 8.88% (E(37.6b)/V(38.0b) * Re(8.95%) + D(399.9m)/V(38.0b) * Rd(2.53%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.10 | Cagr: 7.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.66% ; FCFF base≈89.3m ; Y1≈95.6m ; Y5≈115.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.12 (EV 1.62b - Net Debt -688.1m = Equity 2.31b / Shares 143.2m; r=8.88% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 8.00% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.68 | Revenue CAGR: 45.08% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 13
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.53 | Chg30d=-2.51% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=13
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.38 | Chg30d=-3.76% | Revisions=+42% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.71 | Chg30d=-1.78% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-12.4% | GrowthRev=+21.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=+1.78% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+88.0% | GrowthRev=+19.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +61% (up=13, down=2)