NTRA Stock Analysis: Natera | NASDAQ
Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 56.712m USD | 12M Return: 111.8% | US6323071042 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 673M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 14
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Natera, Inc. is a US-based molecular diagnostics company that develops and commercializes a broad portfolio of genetic and blood-based testing services across three primary clinical areas: oncology (including Signatera for molecular residual disease monitoring, Latitude for colorectal cancer, and Altera for tumor genomic profiling), reproductive health (such as Panorama non-invasive prenatal testing, Horizon carrier screening, and Vistara single-gene NIPT), and transplant and kidney genetics (including Prospera for solid organ transplant rejection assessment and Renasight). The company also offers hereditary cancer screening through its Empower test and miscarriage tissue analysis via Anora.
The business operates a hybrid distribution model, selling through a direct sales force and laboratory distribution partners that serve independent labs, national and regional reference laboratories, medical centers, physician practices, research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies. A notable element of its strategy is Constellation, a cloud-based distribution platform that allows partner laboratories to offer Nateras tests under their own brand, extending the companys reach without relying solely on centralized lab processing. Supporting infrastructure includes the NateraCore patient and provider platform, phlebotomy services, and EMR integration.
Natera maintains strategic partnerships that extend its commercial and clinical footprint, including a collaboration with BGI Genomics to develop NGS-based genetic testing assays and a research collaboration with Diakonos Oncology focused on molecular response assessment in refractory melanoma. The company was originally founded as Gene Security Network, LLC before adopting its current name in 2012, and trades on Nasdaq as a large-cap biotechnology stock following its 2015 IPO.
- Signatera MRD test volume accelerates oncology revenue growth
- NIPT competition pressures margins in reproductive health segment
- Medicare reimbursement expansion for Signatera boosts covered lives
| Net Income: -192.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.85% < 20% (prev 53.29%; Δ -12.44% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 228.2m > Net Income -192.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (143.3m) vs 12m ago 5.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 65.30% > 18% (prev 62.91%; Δ 2.40% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.6% > 50% (prev 111.8%; Δ 10.85% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -24.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM -244.5m / Interest Expense TTM 9.97m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 1.66b - Total Current Liabilities 553.2m) / Total Assets 2.66b |
| B: -1.10 (Retained Earnings -2.93b / Total Assets 2.66b) |
| C: -0.11 (EBIT TTM -244.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.21b) |
| D: 2.18 (Book Value of Equity 1.82b / Total Liabilities 836.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.68 = B |
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 422.0m/309.2m, Revenue 2.71b/1.96b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 62.91% / 65.30%) |
| AQI: 8.86 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 2.71b / 1.96b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -192.3m - CFO 228.2m) / TA 2.66b) |
| Beneish M = 1.85 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 399.42 with a total of 1,328,903 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.41%, over one month by +7.76%, over three months by +52.08% and over the past year by +111.78%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 377.80 (which is 5.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Natera has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.61. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NTRA.
- StrongBuy: 16
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 403.9 | 1.1% |
P/E Forward = 5000.0
P/S = 20.9496
P/B = 30.9251
Revenue TTM = 2.71b USD
EBIT TTM = -244.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -178.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 143.1m USD (estimated: total debt 238.5m - short term 95.4m)
Short Term Debt = 95.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 396.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 158.2m
Net Debt = -694.8m USD (calculated: Debt 396.7m - CCE 1.09b)
Enterprise Value = 56.0b USD (56.7b + Debt 396.7m - CCE 1.09b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -24.51 (Ebit TTM -244.5m / Interest Expense TTM 9.97m)
EV/FCF = 781.3x (Enterprise Value 56.0b / FCF TTM 71.7m)
FCF Yield = 0.13% (FCF TTM 71.7m / Enterprise Value 56.0b)
FCF Margin = 2.65% (FCF TTM 71.7m / Revenue TTM 2.71b)
Net Margin = -7.11% (Net Income TTM -192.3m / Revenue TTM 2.71b)
Gross Margin = 65.30% ((Revenue TTM 2.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 939.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.46% (prev 64.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 21.08 (Enterprise Value 56.0b / Total Assets 2.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.51% (Interest Expense 9.97m / Debt 396.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -193.2m (EBIT -244.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.00 (Total Current Assets 1.66b / Total Current Liabilities 553.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 396.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.89 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -694.8m / EBITDA -178.7m)
Debt / FCF = -9.69 (Net Debt -694.8m / FCF TTM 71.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.64b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.71% (Net Income -192.3m / Total Assets 2.66b)
RoE = -11.73% (Net Income TTM -192.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.64b)
RoCE = -13.71% (EBIT -244.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.64b + L.T.Debt 143.1m))
RoIC = -9.36% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -193.2m / Invested Capital 2.06b)
WACC = 8.19% (E(56.7b)/V(57.1b) * Re(8.23%) + D(396.7m)/V(57.1b) * Rd(2.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.30 | Cagr: 7.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈84.8m ; Y1≈74.4m ; Y5≈60.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.51 (EV 964.9m - Net Debt -694.8m = Equity 1.66b / Shares 144.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.61 | Revenue CAGR: 44.20% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 14
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-17.67% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.47 | Chg30d=-6.22% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+3.0% | GrowthRev=+26.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.23 | Chg30d=-123.91% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+84.4% | GrowthRev=+20.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -46% (up=2, down=8)