(NTRA) Natera - Overview
Stock: Prenatal Tests, Cancer Tests, Organ Tests, Software
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.67 |
| Alpha | 7.12 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.202 |
| Beta Downside | 0.873 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.94% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.63 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: NTRA Natera February 13, 2026
Natera (NTRA) is a Texas-based molecular diagnostics company that markets a broad suite of DNA-based tests, ranging from non-invasive prenatal screening (Panorama, Vistara) and carrier screening (Horizon) to oncology-focused assays such as Signatera (residual disease) and Altera (tissue-based profiling). The firm also offers specialty panels for transplant rejection (Prospera) and kidney genetics (Renasight), plus a cloud-software platform (Constellation) that enables partner labs to run its assays.
In its most recent fiscal year (2023), Natera reported revenue of $1.07 billion, up ≈ 19 % YoY, driven primarily by double-digit growth in its oncology franchise (Signatera + Altera) and continued expansion of prenatal testing volumes. The company’s gross margin improved to ≈ 78 % as it scaled high-margin NGS workflows, while operating cash flow turned positive at $150 million, reflecting tighter cost control and a shift toward a recurring-revenue model via its cloud software subscriptions.
Key industry tailwinds include the projected $15 billion U.S. prenatal testing market (CAGR ≈ 9 % through 2028) and the accelerating adoption of liquid-biopsy assays in oncology, which together underpin Natera’s growth outlook. However, the firm faces competitive pressure from larger players (e.g., Illumina, Roche) and reimbursement uncertainty for some of its newer panels, which could moderate upside.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing ValueRay’s analyst models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -309.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 47.49% < 20% (prev 66.66%; Δ -19.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 194.3m > Net Income -309.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (137.2m) vs 12m ago 10.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.70% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 6312 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.1% > 50% (prev 96.29%; Δ 27.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -69.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -268.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m) |
Altman Z'' -7.84
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 442.0m) / Total Assets 1.82b |
| B: -1.55 (Retained Earnings -2.82b / Total Assets 1.82b) |
| C: -0.18 (EBIT TTM -305.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.71b) |
| D: -4.96 (Book Value of Equity -2.82b / Total Liabilities 569.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -7.84 = D |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 286.4m/306.9m, Revenue 2.12b/1.53b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 63.70% / 57.66%) |
| AQI: 1.61 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 2.12b / 1.53b) |
| TATA: -0.28 (NI -309.2m - CFO 194.3m) / TA 1.82b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NTRA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.86%, over one month by -9.68%, over three months by -5.95% and over the past year by +26.12%.
Is NTRA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 257.2 | 21.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 257.2 | 21.3% |
NTRA Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/B = 22.9667
Revenue TTM = 2.12b USD
EBIT TTM = -305.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -268.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 118.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 80.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 184.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -856.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 29.31b USD (30.17b + Debt 184.7m - CCE 1.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -69.90 (Ebit TTM -305.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m)
EV/FCF = 313.3x (Enterprise Value 29.31b / FCF TTM 93.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.32% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Enterprise Value 29.31b)
FCF Margin = 4.42% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Net Margin = -14.61% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Gross Margin = 63.70% ((Revenue TTM 2.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 768.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.91% (prev 63.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 16.09 (Enterprise Value 29.31b / Total Assets 1.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 1.04m / Debt 184.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -241.4m (EBIT -305.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.27 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 442.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 184.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -856.7m / EBITDA -268.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.16 (Net Debt -856.7m / FCF TTM 93.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -18.12% (Net Income -309.2m / Total Assets 1.82b)
RoE = -25.07% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.23b)
RoCE = -22.60% (EBIT -305.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.23b + L.T.Debt 118.4m))
RoIC = -18.37% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -241.4m / Invested Capital 1.31b)
WACC = 10.29% (E(30.17b)/V(30.36b) * Re(10.35%) + D(184.7m)/V(30.36b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.66% ; FCFF base≈93.6m ; Y1≈61.4m ; Y5≈28.0m
Fair Price DCF = 8.97 (EV 394.2m - Net Debt -856.7m = Equity 1.25b / Shares 139.4m; r=10.29% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 85.60 | EPS CAGR: 98.92% | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.30 | Revenue CAGR: 38.83% | SUE: 3.26 | # QB: 11
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.60 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.99 | Chg30d=+0.021 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+17.9% | Growth Revenue=+16.8%