(NVA) Nova Minerals - Overview

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 236m USD | Total Return: 155.1% in 12m

Gold, Antimony, Critical Minerals
Total Rating 46
Safety 63
Buy Signal -0.36
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: -9.1
Market Cap: 236M
Avg Turnover: 2.83M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility85.0%
VaR 5th Pctl13.5%
VaR vs Median-3.33%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.20
Rel. Str. IBD89.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group79
Character TTM
Beta0.208
Beta Downside-0.843
Hurst Exponent0.474
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD65.20%
CAGR/Max DD2.81
CAGR/Mean DD6.04

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -178.8 is critical

Tailwinds

Rs(ibd) Leader

Description: NVA Nova Minerals

Nova Minerals Limited (NASDAQ: NVA) is an Australian-based mining company focused on the exploration and development of gold, antimony, and critical minerals. The companys primary asset is an 85% interest in the Estelle Gold project, an expansive 514-square-kilometer site located in the Tintina Gold Belt of Alaska. This region is a globally recognized mineral province known for hosting large-scale intrusion-related gold systems.

The business model centers on the high-risk, high-reward exploration phase of the mining lifecycle, where value is generated by defining and expanding resource estimates to attract major producers or move toward feasibility. Antimony, which the company also explores, is increasingly categorized as a critical mineral due to its essential role in military applications and flame retardants, often facing supply chain constraints. Investors can utilize ValueRay to further analyze the companys valuation and capital structure.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Gold resource expansion at flagship Estelle project increases total asset valuation
  • Antimony discovery provides exposure to strategic critical mineral supply chains
  • Alaskan regulatory approvals and permitting timelines dictate project development speed
  • Fluctuations in spot gold prices impact economic viability of low-grade deposits
  • Capital requirements for feasibility studies influence share dilution and liquidity risk
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: error (cannot be calculated; needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM)
FCF/TA: -0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.22 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -12.0m > Net Income -34.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.63 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (558k) vs 12m ago -86.95% < -2%
Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin)
Asset Turnover: 0.0% > 50% (prev 743.8%; Δ -743.8% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -178.8 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -33.2m / Interest Expense TTM 193k)
Altman Z'' 3.68
A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 65.3m - Total Current Liabilities 18.0m) / Total Assets 185.5m
B: -0.48 (Retained Earnings -88.4m / Total Assets 185.5m)
C: -0.23 (EBIT TTM -34.6m / Avg Total Assets 153.0m)
D: 4.83 (Book Value of Equity 147.5m / Total Liabilities 30.5m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.68 = AA
What is the price of NVA shares?

As of May 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.20 with a total of 416,000 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.16%, over one month by +1.81%, over three months by -16.33% and over the past year by +155.14%.

Is NVA a buy, sell or hold?

Nova Minerals has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NVA.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NVA price?
Analysts Target Price 10 61.3%
Nova Minerals (NVA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 235.7m (235.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap AUD = 329.1m (235.7m USD * 1.3965 USD.AUD)
P/B = 2.2293
Revenue TTM = 0.0 AUD
EBIT TTM = -34.6m AUD
EBITDA TTM = -33.2m AUD
Long Term Debt = 4.92m AUD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 1.17m AUD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.09m AUD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -53.0m AUD (calculated: Debt 6.09m - CCE 59.1m)
Enterprise Value = 276.1m AUD (329.1m + Debt 6.09m - CCE 59.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -178.8 (Ebit TTM -34.6m / Interest Expense TTM 193k)
EV/FCF = -14.63x (Enterprise Value 276.1m / FCF TTM -18.9m)
FCF Yield = -6.83% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Enterprise Value 276.1m)
 FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
 Net Margin = unknown
 Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 460k) / Revenue TTM)
 Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 276.1m / Total Assets 185.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.18% (Interest Expense 193k / Debt 6.09m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -27.3m (EBIT -34.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.63 (Total Current Assets 65.3m / Total Current Liabilities 18.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 6.09m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 147.5m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 1.60 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -53.0m / EBITDA -33.2m)
 Debt / FCF = 2.81 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -53.0m / FCF TTM -18.9m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 122.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.22% (Net Income -34.0m / Total Assets 185.5m)
RoE = -16.13% (Net Income TTM -34.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 210.7m)
RoCE = -16.04% (EBIT -34.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 210.7m + L.T.Debt 4.92m))
 RoIC = -16.20% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -27.3m / Invested Capital 168.7m)
 WACC = 6.64% (E(329.1m)/V(335.2m) * Re(6.72%) + D(6.09m)/V(335.2m) * Rd(3.18%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (yearly) Correlation: 100.0 | Cagr: 33.33%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -18.9m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -78.42 | Revenue CAGR: -24.29% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0