NVAX Stock Analysis: Novavax | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.534m USD | 12M Return: 43.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 39.2M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -4.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novavax, Inc. is a U.S.-based biotechnology company that develops and commercializes vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases, operating in the United States, Europe, and other international markets.
The companys commercial portfolio includes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine, and the R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. Its COVID-19 vaccine is developed, manufactured, and distributed through license and collaboration agreements with major pharmaceutical partners including Sanofi, Pfizer, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, and Serum Life Sciences.
Novavax was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. It trades on NASDAQ under the ticker NVAX and is classified within the Health Care sector under the Biotechnology sub-industry. As a small-cap vaccine developer, the company follows a partnership-driven commercialization model commonly used in the biotech industry, allowing it to scale manufacturing and global distribution through larger pharmaceutical partners rather than maintaining its own full-scale commercial infrastructure.
- Nuvaxovid COVID vaccine demand declines globally
- Sanofi partnership expands Matrix-M adjuvant vaccine pipeline
- Cash burn raises dilution risk for shareholders
| Net Income: -87.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -47.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.25% < 20% (prev 35.53%; Δ 49.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -91.6m > Net Income -87.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (163.3m) vs 12m ago -8.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.64% > 18% (prev 87.44%; Δ -2.80% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.05% > 50% (prev 97.06%; Δ -46.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM -64.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m) |
| A: 0.49 (Total Current Assets 850.8m - Total Current Liabilities 342.5m) / Total Assets 1.04b |
| B: -4.39 (Retained Earnings -4.58b / Total Assets 1.04b) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -64.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.17b) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -144.8m / Total Liabilities 1.19b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -11.61 = D |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 23.3m/44.5m, Revenue 596.3m/1.25b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 87.44% / 84.64%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 0.48 (Revenue 596.3m / 1.25b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI -87.8m - CFO -91.6m) / TA 1.04b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.46 with a total of 4,505,552 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.07%, over one month by +9.74%, over three months by +18.55% and over the past year by +43.12%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.40 (which is 11.2% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Novavax has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NVAX.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 14.1 | 49.2% |
P/E Forward = 2.5846
P/S = 2.6858
P/B = 33.1966
P/EG = 1.3218
Revenue TTM = 596.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -64.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -42.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 291.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.11m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 299.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.02m
Net Debt = 148.8m USD (calculated: Debt 299.1m - CCE 150.3m)
Enterprise Value = 1.68b USD (1.53b + Debt 299.1m - CCE 150.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.41 (Ebit TTM -64.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m)
EV/FCF = -44.69x (Enterprise Value 1.68b / FCF TTM -37.7m)
FCF Yield = -2.24% (FCF TTM -37.7m / Enterprise Value 1.68b)
FCF Margin = -6.31% (FCF TTM -37.7m / Revenue TTM 596.3m)
Net Margin = -14.73% (Net Income TTM -87.8m / Revenue TTM 596.3m)
Gross Margin = 84.64% ((Revenue TTM 596.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 91.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.00% (prev 82.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.61 (Enterprise Value 1.68b / Total Assets 1.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.99% (Interest Expense 11.9m / Debt 299.1m)
Taxrate = 0.42% (1.86m / 442.2m)
NOPAT = -64.2m (EBIT -64.5m * (1 - 0.42%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.37 (Total Current Assets 850.8m / Total Current Liabilities 358.6m)
Debt / Equity = -2.07 (negative equity) (Debt 299.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -144.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.53 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 148.8m / EBITDA -42.1m)
Debt / FCF = -3.95 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 148.8m / FCF TTM -37.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -97.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.52% (Net Income -87.8m / Total Assets 1.04b)
RoE = 89.73% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -87.8m / Total Stockholder Equity -97.9m)
RoCE = -33.37% (EBIT -64.5m / Capital Employed (Equity -97.9m + L.T.Debt 291.0m))
RoIC = -9.54% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -64.2m / Invested Capital 673.0m)
WACC = 9.27% (E(1.53b)/V(1.83b) * Re(10.30%) + D(299.1m)/V(1.83b) * Rd(3.99%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 10.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.67 | Cagr: 13.14%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -37.7m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.04 | Revenue CAGR: -1.20% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.38 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.47 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-118.3% | GrowthRev=-63.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+46.2% | GrowthRev=-37.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -41% (up=5, down=14)