(NVAX) Novavax - Overview
Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.477m USD | Total Return: 26.3% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 33.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -4.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Negative Equity with losses - insolvent profile
Interest Coverage Ratio -5.6 is critical
Altman Z'' -15.00 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is a Maryland-based biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of protein-based vaccines for infectious diseases. Its primary product portfolio includes the Nuvaxovid COVID-19 vaccine and the R21 Matrix-M malaria vaccine. The company utilizes a partnership-heavy business model, maintaining strategic licensing and manufacturing agreements with global pharmaceutical leaders such as Sanofi, Pfizer, and Takeda.
The biotechnology sector is characterized by high research and development costs and a rigorous regulatory approval process managed by agencies like the FDA. Unlike mRNA competitors, Novavax utilizes recombinant nanoparticle technology and its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant to enhance immune responses. For a more comprehensive look at these technical fundamentals, readers should evaluate the data available on ValueRay.
- Sanofi licensing agreement provides immediate capital and long-term royalty revenue streams
- Transition to seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market impacts annual recurring revenue volume
- Clinical trial progress for COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine influences valuation
- Reduced operating expenses and manufacturing optimization drive path toward profitability
- Regulatory approvals for Matrix-M adjuvant vaccines expand global market penetration potential
| Net Income: -87.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -47.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.25% < 20% (prev 35.53%; Δ 49.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -91.6m > Net Income -87.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (163.3m) vs 12m ago -8.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.64% > 18% (prev 0.87%; Δ 8.38k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.05% > 50% (prev 97.06%; Δ -46.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -44.4m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m) |
| A: 0.49 (Total Current Assets 850.8m - Total Current Liabilities 342.5m) / Total Assets 1.04b |
| B: -4.39 (Retained Earnings -4.58b / Total Assets 1.04b) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -66.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.17b) |
| D: -3.86 (Book Value of Equity -4.58b / Total Liabilities 1.19b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -15.54 = D |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 23.3m/44.5m, Revenue 596.3m/1.25b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 84.64% / 87.44%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 0.48 (Revenue 596.3m / 1.25b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI -87.8m - CFO -91.6m) / TA 1.04b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.98 with a total of 3,206,638 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.66%,
over one month by +8.99%,
over three months by -1.60% and
over the past year by +26.34%.
Novavax has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NVAX.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 14.1 | 57.1% |
P/S = 2.5562
P/B = 41.226
P/EG = 1.3218
Revenue TTM = 596.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -66.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -44.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 291.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.11m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 299.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.02m
Net Debt = 148.8m USD (calculated: Debt 299.1m - CCE 150.3m)
Enterprise Value = 1.63b USD (1.48b + Debt 299.1m - CCE 150.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.60 (Ebit TTM -66.8m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m)
EV/FCF = -43.17x (Enterprise Value 1.63b / FCF TTM -37.7m)
FCF Yield = -2.32% (FCF TTM -37.7m / Enterprise Value 1.63b)
FCF Margin = -6.31% (FCF TTM -37.7m / Revenue TTM 596.3m)
Net Margin = -14.73% (Net Income TTM -87.8m / Revenue TTM 596.3m)
Gross Margin = 84.64% ((Revenue TTM 596.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 91.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.00% (prev 82.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.56 (Enterprise Value 1.63b / Total Assets 1.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.99% (Interest Expense 11.9m / Debt 299.1m)
Taxrate = 0.42% (1.86m / 442.2m)
NOPAT = -66.5m (EBIT -66.8m * (1 - 0.42%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.37 (Total Current Assets 850.8m / Total Current Liabilities 358.6m)
Debt / Equity = -2.07 (negative equity) (Debt 299.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -144.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.35 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 148.8m / EBITDA -44.4m)
Debt / FCF = -3.95 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 148.8m / FCF TTM -37.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -97.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.52% (Net Income -87.8m / Total Assets 1.04b)
RoE = -1.96% (Net Income TTM -87.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.48b)
RoCE = -1.40% (EBIT -66.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.48b + L.T.Debt 291.0m))
RoIC = -9.46% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.5m / Invested Capital 702.8m)
WACC = 8.50% (E(1.48b)/V(1.78b) * Re(9.42%) + D(299.1m)/V(1.78b) * Rd(3.99%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.67 | Cagr: 13.14%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -37.7m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.04 | Revenue CAGR: -1.20% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.40 | Chg30d=-200.83% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.47 | Chg30d=-27.22% | Revisions=-45% | GrowthEPS=-118.3% | GrowthRev=-63.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+22.86% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+46.2% | GrowthRev=-37.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50%