NVMI Stock Analysis: Nova | NASDAQ

Dimensional Metrology, Film Thickness, Materials Characterization, Chemical Monitoring

Total Rating 43

Safety 73

Buy Signal -0.18

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Industry Rotation: +57.7

Market Cap: 12.6B
Avg Turnover: 158M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility53.2%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.38%

VaR vs Median7.06%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.56

Rel. Str. IBD28.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group9.2

Character TTM

Beta2.132

Beta Downside1.973

Hurst Exponent0.429

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD44.75%

CAGR/Max DD1.23

CAGR/Mean DD4.55

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 29.79%
EPS Trend: 98.1%

Last SUE: 1.46
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 28.23%
Rev. Trend: 97.9%

Last SUE: 1.51
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.1% 5

Feb +0.6% 5

Mar -1.2% 8

Apr +3.0% 5

May +6.2% 32

Jun -3.5% 14

Jul +1.5% 15

Aug -1.4% 18

Sep -4.6% 28

Oct +0.2% 0

Nov +6.8% 27

Dec +0.8% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NVMI Nova

Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVMI) is an Israeli-headquartered company that designs, develops, produces, and sells process control and metrology systems used in semiconductor manufacturing. The company sells its products globally, with key markets including Taiwan, the United States, China, and Korea, and serves the logic, foundry, memory, and advanced packaging segments of the integrated circuit industry, as well as process equipment manufacturers.

Novas product portfolio centers on metrology platforms that perform dimensional, film thickness, and materials and chemical measurements across key semiconductor process steps such as lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. The company was founded in 1993, is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel, and was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. before rebranding to Nova Ltd. in July 2021.

The company operates in the semiconductor materials and equipment subsector, where process control and metrology tools play a critical role in detecting defects and verifying process accuracy to support manufacturing yield. Israel is a notable hub for semiconductor equipment innovation, hosting several established players in this specialized segment of the broader semiconductor supply chain.

Headlines to Watch Out For

China DRAM tools sales face escalating US export control restrictions
Advanced packaging Big Bet expands total addressable market beyond core metrology
KLA competition pressures Novas position in dimensional metrology market share

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5

Net Income: 270.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.85 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 55.07% < 20% (prev 68.20%; Δ -13.12% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 212.4m > Net Income 270.4m
Net Debt (-147.6m) to EBITDA (330.2m): -0.45 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.5m) vs 12m ago 7.48% < -2%
Gross Margin: 57.12% > 18% (prev 57.10%; Δ 0.02% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 46.61% > 50% (prev 52.63%; Δ -6.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 132.3 > 6 (EBIT TTM 306.4m / Interest Expense TTM 2.32m)

Altman Z'' 5.27

A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 936.6m) / Total Assets 2.49b
B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 1.06b / Total Assets 2.49b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 306.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.01b)
D: 1.43 (Book Value of Equity 1.47b / Total Liabilities 1.02b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.27 = AAA

Beneish M -2.59

DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 210.3m/138.4m, Revenue 937.5m/807.1m)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 57.10% / 57.12%)
AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.32)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 937.5m / 807.1m)
TATA: 0.02 (NI 270.4m - CFO 212.4m) / TA 2.49b)
Beneish M = -2.59 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of NVMI shares?

As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 392.86 with a total of 241,813 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.06%, over one month by +4.18%, over three months by -15.81% and over the past year by +18.70%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 367.60 (which is 6.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).

Is NVMI a buy, sell or hold?

Nova has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NVMI.

StrongBuy: 5
Buy: 2
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NVMI price?

Analysts Target Price	532	35.4%

Nova (NVMI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 12.6b (12.6b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 49.2687
P/E Forward = 25.8398
P/S = 13.439
P/B = 7.9458
P/EG = 1.4554
Revenue TTM = 937.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 306.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 330.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 731.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 743.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 873.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 69.9m
Net Debt = -147.6m USD (calculated: Debt 873.4m - CCE 1.02b)
Enterprise Value = 12.5b USD (12.6b + Debt 873.4m - CCE 1.02b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 132.3 (Ebit TTM 306.4m / Interest Expense TTM 2.32m)
EV/FCF = 65.62x (Enterprise Value 12.5b / FCF TTM 189.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.52% (FCF TTM 189.8m / Enterprise Value 12.5b)
FCF Margin = 20.24% (FCF TTM 189.8m / Revenue TTM 937.5m)
Net Margin = 28.84% (Net Income TTM 270.4m / Revenue TTM 937.5m)
Gross Margin = 57.12% ((Revenue TTM 937.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 402.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.54% (prev 57.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.00 (Enterprise Value 12.5b / Total Assets 2.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.27% (Interest Expense 2.32m / Debt 873.4m)
Taxrate = 15.32% (48.9m / 319.3m)
NOPAT = 259.4m (EBIT 306.4m * (1 - 15.32%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 936.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.60 (Debt 873.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.47b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.45 (Net Debt -147.6m / EBITDA 330.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.78 (Net Debt -147.6m / FCF TTM 189.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.44% (Net Income 270.4m / Total Assets 2.49b)
RoE = 20.25% (Net Income TTM 270.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 14.82% (EBIT 306.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 731.7m))
RoIC = 11.53% (NOPAT 259.4m / Invested Capital 2.25b)
WACC = 12.62% (E(12.6b)/V(13.5b) * Re(13.48%) + D(873.4m)/V(13.5b) * Rd(0.27%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 13.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.72 | Cagr: 3.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.45% ; FCFF base≈196.5m ; Y1≈183.8m ; Y5≈168.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.73 (EV 1.56b - Net Debt -147.6m = Equity 1.71b / Shares 31.8m; r=12.62% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -8.19% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.06 | EPS CAGR: 29.79% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 97.90 | Revenue CAGR: 28.23% | SUE: 1.51 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=+3.56% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.67 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+23.8% | GrowthRev=+22.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.66 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+28.0% | GrowthRev=+26.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=15, down=3)