NVMI Stock Analysis: Nova | NASDAQ
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 15.986m USD | 12M Return: 55.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 293M
EPS Trend: 98.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 95.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVMI) is an Israel-based provider of process control and metrology systems used in semiconductor manufacturing. The company designs, develops, produces, and sells equipment that performs dimensional, film, and materials/chemical metrology measurements across key wafer fabrication steps, including lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. Nova sells its systems globally, with material exposure to Taiwan, the United States, China, and Korea, and serves the logic, foundry, memory, and packaging segments, as well as process equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993, is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel, and was renamed from Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. to Nova Ltd. in July 2021.
Within the broader semiconductor value chain, Nova operates in the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment sub-industry, supplying metrology tools that help chipmakers monitor and control critical process parameters as device geometries shrink. Process control metrology is a relatively concentrated sub-segment of the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market, with demand closely tied to fab capital spending and the increasing complexity of advanced nodes and 3D/advanced packaging architectures.
- Advanced packaging metrology orders surge on AI chip demand
- Wafer fab equipment spending recovery lifts process control revenue
- China and Taiwan revenue concentration exposes to geopolitical risks
| Net Income: 263.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 60.50% < 20% (prev 63.71%; Δ -3.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 217.1m > Net Income 263.7m |
| Net Debt (-230.8m) to EBITDA (334.3m): -0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.4m) vs 12m ago 7.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.46% > 18% (prev 57.28%; Δ 0.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.53% > 50% (prev 50.82%; Δ -4.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 134.3 > 6 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.32m) |
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 1.49b - Total Current Liabilities 943.9m) / Total Assets 2.42b |
| B: 0.44 (Retained Earnings 1.06b / Total Assets 2.42b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.94b) |
| D: 1.35 (Book Value of Equity 1.39b / Total Liabilities 1.03b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.40 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 176.9m/126.9m, Revenue 902.5m/744.0m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 57.28% / 57.46%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 902.5m / 744.0m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 263.7m - CFO 217.1m) / TA 2.42b) |
| Beneish M = -2.73 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 446.43 with a total of 856,432 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.21%, over one month by -12.11%, over three months by +0.47% and over the past year by +55.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 393.10 (which is 11.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Nova has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NVMI.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 597.6 | 33.9% |
P/E Trailing = 62.9825
P/E Forward = 50.5051
P/S = 17.7122
P/B = 12.4386
P/EG = 1.4554
Revenue TTM = 902.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 311.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 334.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 731.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 742.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 867.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 67.5m
Net Debt = -230.8m USD (calculated: Debt 867.7m - CCE 1.10b)
Enterprise Value = 15.8b USD (16.0b + Debt 867.7m - CCE 1.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 134.3 (Ebit TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.32m)
EV/FCF = 81.11x (Enterprise Value 15.8b / FCF TTM 194.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.23% (FCF TTM 194.3m / Enterprise Value 15.8b)
FCF Margin = 21.52% (FCF TTM 194.3m / Revenue TTM 902.5m)
Net Margin = 29.21% (Net Income TTM 263.7m / Revenue TTM 902.5m)
Gross Margin = 57.46% ((Revenue TTM 902.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 383.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.66% (prev 57.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.52 (Enterprise Value 15.8b / Total Assets 2.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.27% (Interest Expense 2.32m / Debt 867.7m)
Taxrate = 15.22% (47.3m / 311.0m)
NOPAT = 263.7m (EBIT 311.0m * (1 - 15.22%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 1.49b / Total Current Liabilities 943.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.63 (Debt 867.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -230.8m / EBITDA 334.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.19 (Net Debt -230.8m / FCF TTM 194.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.59% (Net Income 263.7m / Total Assets 2.42b)
RoE = 21.21% (Net Income TTM 263.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.24b)
RoCE = 15.75% (EBIT 311.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.24b + L.T.Debt 731.7m))
RoIC = 12.16% (NOPAT 263.7m / Invested Capital 2.17b)
WACC = 12.85% (E(16.0b)/V(16.9b) * Re(13.54%) + D(867.7m)/V(16.9b) * Rd(0.27%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 13.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 44.95 | Cagr: 3.29%
[DCF] Terminal Value 58.89% ; FCFF base≈205.2m ; Y1≈184.6m ; Y5≈156.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 52.56 (EV 1.44b - Net Debt -230.8m = Equity 1.67b / Shares 31.8m; r=12.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -12.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.04 | EPS CAGR: 29.76% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 95.68 | Revenue CAGR: 25.93% | SUE: 2.93 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=+2.89% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.71 | Chg30d=-0.39% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.48 | Chg30d=+1.50% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+21.6% | GrowthRev=+20.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.94 | Chg30d=+3.55% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+23.4% | GrowthRev=+21.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=16, down=6)