(NWE) NorthWestern - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.89% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.02% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 74.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.39 |
| Alpha | 28.24 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.51 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.329 |
| Beta | 0.240 |
| Beta Downside | 0.300 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.97% |
| Mean DD | 7.96% |
| Median DD | 6.34% |
Description: NWE NorthWestern November 08, 2025
NorthWestern Energy (NASDAQ: NWE) is a regulated utility that supplies electricity and natural gas to roughly 787,000 customers across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. The company owns and operates extensive transmission and distribution infrastructure-6,596 mi of electric transmission, 18,794 mi of electric distribution, 2,133 mi of gas transmission, and 5,221 mi of gas distribution in Montana, plus additional lines in South Dakota and Nebraska.
Key operational metrics (2023) include a regulated revenue base of about $2.1 billion, a net profit margin near 5.5 %, and capital expenditures of roughly $400 million, reflecting ongoing grid modernization and renewable-energy integration projects. The utility’s earnings are heavily influenced by state-level rate cases, which historically adjust rates to cover cost-of-service investments and inflation.
Sector drivers that materially affect NWE’s outlook are (1) the pace of electricity decarbonization-state mandates in the region are pushing utilities toward higher renewable penetration, (2) natural-gas price volatility, which can impact both cost of supply and demand for heating, and (3) macro-economic trends in the Upper Midwest, where population growth and industrial activity dictate load growth rates.
For a deeper dive into NWE’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful starting point.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (216.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 94.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.49pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -15.33% (prev -29.73%; Δ 14.40pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 401.1m > Net Income 216.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (3.15b) to EBITDA (614.5m) ratio: 5.12 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (61.4m) change vs 12m ago -0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 64.84% (prev 55.67%; Δ 9.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 19.44% (prev 19.05%; Δ 0.38pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.52 (EBITDA TTM 614.5m / Interest Expense TTM 146.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.64
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 443.9m - Total Current Liabilities 684.6m) / Total Assets 8.30b |
| (B) 0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 892.4m / Total Assets 8.30b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 369.9m / Avg Total Assets 8.08b |
| (D) 0.16 = Book Value of Equity 886.7m / Total Liabilities 5.42b |
| Total Rating: 0.64 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.58
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.70% |
| 3. FCF Margin -7.78% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.09 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.12 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.66)% |
| 7. RoE 7.54% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 15.06% |
| 9. EPS Trend -3.23% |
What is the price of NWE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.46%, over one month by +0.79%, over three months by +20.11% and over the past year by +38.10%.
Is NWE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NWE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 61.5 | -9.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 61.5 | -9.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 76.5 | 12.7% |
NWE Fundamental Data Overview December 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 18.6119
P/E Forward = 14.5773
P/S = 2.5701
P/B = 1.3981
P/EG = 2.0837
Beta = 0.361
Revenue TTM = 1.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 369.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 614.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.15b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.18b USD (4.03b + Debt 3.15b - CCE 6.20m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.52 (Ebit TTM 369.9m / Interest Expense TTM 146.6m)
FCF Yield = -1.70% (FCF TTM -122.2m / Enterprise Value 7.18b)
FCF Margin = -7.78% (FCF TTM -122.2m / Revenue TTM 1.57b)
Net Margin = 13.82% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Revenue TTM 1.57b)
Gross Margin = 64.84% ((Revenue TTM 1.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 551.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.42% (prev 59.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 7.18b / Total Assets 8.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.22% (Interest Expense 38.4m / Debt 3.15b)
Taxrate = 18.69% (8.79m / 47.0m)
NOPAT = 300.8m (EBIT 369.9m * (1 - 18.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 443.9m / Total Current Liabilities 684.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.09 (Debt 3.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.12 (Net Debt 3.15b / EBITDA 614.5m)
Debt / FCF = -25.75 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 3.15b / FCF TTM -122.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.61% (Net Income 216.9m / Total Assets 8.30b)
RoE = 7.54% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.88b)
RoCE = 6.25% (EBIT 369.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.88b + L.T.Debt 3.04b))
RoIC = 4.97% (NOPAT 300.8m / Invested Capital 6.06b)
WACC = 4.31% (E(4.03b)/V(7.19b) * Re(6.90%) + D(3.15b)/V(7.19b) * Rd(1.22%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.12%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -122.2m)
EPS Correlation: -3.23 | EPS CAGR: -7.07% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.06 | Revenue CAGR: 2.92% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.85 | Chg30d=+0.026 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+7.7% | Growth Revenue=+5.2%
Additional Sources for NWE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle