(OCUL) Ocular Therapeutix - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.835m USD | Total Return: 14.1% in 12m

Ophthalmic Inserts, Hydrogel Implants, Retinal Therapies, Drug Delivery
Total Rating 15
Safety 37
Buy Signal -0.98
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -8.2
Market Cap: 1.83B
Avg Turnover: 25.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility78.3%
VaR 5th Pctl11.9%
VaR vs Median-8.56%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.45
Rel. Str. IBD15.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group20.1
Character TTM
Beta0.720
Beta Downside0.598
Hurst Exponent0.474
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD72.77%
CAGR/Max DD0.13
CAGR/Mean DD0.31
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of OCUL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.04, "2021-06": -0.11, "2021-09": 0.03, "2021-12": -0.05, "2022-03": -0.16, "2022-06": -0.25, "2022-09": -0.31, "2022-12": -0.24, "2023-03": -0.39, "2023-06": -0.26, "2023-09": -0.17, "2023-12": -0.35, "2024-03": -0.7, "2024-06": -0.26, "2024-09": -0.22, "2024-12": -0.29, "2025-03": -0.3724, "2025-06": -0.39, "2025-09": -0.38, "2025-12": -0.29, "2026-03": -0.4019,
Last SUE: -0.30
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of OCUL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 7.342, 2021-06: 11.718, 2021-09: 12.153, 2021-12: 12.308, 2022-03: 13.187, 2022-06: 12.266, 2022-09: 11.965, 2022-12: 14.075, 2023-03: 13.374, 2023-06: 15.186, 2023-09: 15.081, 2023-12: 14.801, 2024-03: 14.774, 2024-06: 16.441, 2024-09: 15.425, 2024-12: 17.082, 2025-03: 10.698, 2025-06: 13.459, 2025-09: 14.544, 2025-12: 13.25, 2026-03: 10.785,
Rev. CAGR: -2.91%
Rev. Trend: -41.2%
Last SUE: -0.83
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Share dilution 32.3% YoY

Interest Coverage Ratio -24.6 is critical

Altman Z'' -11.69 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: OCUL Ocular Therapeutix

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is a Massachusetts-based biopharmaceutical firm specializing in ocular therapies utilizing a proprietary bioresorbable hydrogel-based delivery system. This technology enables the sustained release of medication, aiming to replace traditional eye drop regimens which often suffer from low patient compliance. The company currently markets DEXTENZA for post-surgical inflammation and allergic conjunctivitis while advancing a clinical pipeline focused on high-prevalence conditions such as wet age-related macular degeneration and glaucoma.

The company operates within the specialized ophthalmology sector, where high barriers to entry exist due to complex regulatory requirements and the technical challenges of ocular drug delivery. Ocular Therapeutix utilizes a hybrid business model, generating revenue through direct commercial sales in the United States while leveraging strategic partnerships, such as its collaboration with AffaMed Therapeutics, to expand its geographic reach and development capabilities. Investors may find ValueRay useful for evaluating how these clinical milestones align with broader sector performance.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • AXPAXLI Phase 3 clinical trial data determines long-term valuation for wet AMD treatment
  • DEXTENZA prescription volume and market share growth drives immediate quarterly revenue
  • R&D expenditure and cash runway management dictate future equity financing needs
  • FDA regulatory approval timelines for hydrogel-based pipeline assets impact investor sentiment
  • Competition from established anti-VEGF therapies pressures market entry for retinal products
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0
Net Income: -290.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.34 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.27k% < 20% (prev 586.4%; Δ 678.7% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.31 > 3% & CFO -226.2m > Net Income -290.5m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 14.81 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (224.1m) vs 12m ago 32.29% < -2%
Gross Margin: 87.24% > 18% (prev 0.91%; Δ 8.63k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.14% > 50% (prev 14.69%; Δ -5.55% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -24.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -281.7m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
Altman Z'' -11.69
A: 0.90 (Total Current Assets 706.0m - Total Current Liabilities 47.7m) / Total Assets 732.5m
B: -1.70 (Retained Earnings -1.25b / Total Assets 732.5m)
C: -0.50 (EBIT TTM -286.4m / Avg Total Assets 569.2m)
D: -8.25 (Book Value of Equity -1.25b / Total Liabilities 151.0m)
Altman-Z'' = -11.69 = D
Beneish M -3.35
DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 24.3m/25.2m, Revenue 52.0m/59.6m)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 87.24% / 90.67%)
AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00)
SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 52.0m / 59.6m)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -290.5m - CFO -226.2m) / TA 732.5m)
Beneish M = -3.35 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of OCUL shares?

As of May 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.22 with a total of 2,093,073 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.15%, over one month by -14.80%, over three months by -2.14% and over the past year by +14.07%.

Is OCUL a buy, sell or hold?

Ocular Therapeutix has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OCUL.

  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the OCUL price?
Analysts Target Price 26 216.3%
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 May 2026
P/S = 35.2605
P/B = 3.155
Revenue TTM = 52.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -286.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -281.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 71.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 3.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 85.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 5.63m
Net Debt = -575.9m USD (calculated: Debt 85.1m - CCE 661.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.26b USD (1.83b + Debt 85.1m - CCE 661.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -24.63 (Ebit TTM -286.4m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
EV/FCF = -4.99x (Enterprise Value 1.26b / FCF TTM -252.3m)
FCF Yield = -20.04% (FCF TTM -252.3m / Enterprise Value 1.26b)
 FCF Margin = -484.8% (FCF TTM -252.3m / Revenue TTM 52.0m)
 Net Margin = -558.2% (Net Income TTM -290.5m / Revenue TTM 52.0m)
 Gross Margin = 87.24% ((Revenue TTM 52.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.64m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.68% (prev 87.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.72 (Enterprise Value 1.26b / Total Assets 732.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.66% (Interest Expense 11.6m / Debt 85.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -226.2m (EBIT -286.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 12.67 (Total Current Assets 706.0m / Total Current Liabilities 55.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 85.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 581.6m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 2.04 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -575.9m / EBITDA -281.7m)
 Debt / FCF = 2.28 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -575.9m / FCF TTM -252.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 450.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -51.03% (Net Income -290.5m / Total Assets 732.5m)
RoE = -17.13% (Net Income TTM -290.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.70b)
RoCE = -16.21% (EBIT -286.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.70b + L.T.Debt 71.3m))
 RoIC = -33.58% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -226.2m / Invested Capital 673.8m)
 WACC = 8.61% (E(1.83b)/V(1.92b) * Re(8.51%) + D(85.1m)/V(1.92b) * Rd(13.66%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 37.87%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -252.3m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -41.20 | Revenue CAGR: -2.91% | SUE: -0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.41 | Chg30d=-21.48% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.41 | Chg30d=-15.80% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.62 | Chg30d=-15.92% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=-14.0% | GrowthRev=-0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-1.53 | Chg30d=-21.66% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+5.7% | GrowthRev=+124.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -33%