OCUL Stock Analysis: Ocular Therapeutix | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.074m USD | 12M Return: 7.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.0M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -41.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ocular Therapeutix (NASDAQ: OCUL) is a Bedford, Massachusetts-based biopharmaceutical company founded in 2006 and listed on NASDAQ since 2014. It focuses on developing and commercializing therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions in the United States, using a proprietary bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation platform designed to enable sustained, localized drug delivery.
The company markets DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert indicated for post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. Its clinical pipeline includes AXPAXLI, an axitinib intravitreal hydrogel currently in Phase 3 trials for wet age-related macular degeneration and non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, and OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral hydrogel that has completed Phase 2 trials for open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension. Ocular Therapeutix also maintains a license and collaboration agreement with AffaMed Therapeutics covering the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC.
As a clinical-stage and commercial biopharma, OCUL operates a hybrid business model that combines revenue from its approved product with significant ongoing R&D investment tied to its mid- and late-stage pipeline. The company sits within the GICS Health Care / Pharmaceuticals sub-industry, a sector characterized by long development timelines, regulatory risk, and dependence on clinical trial outcomes and partnership agreements for growth.
- AXPAXLI phase 3 wet AMD data readout
- DEXTENZA post-surgical sales growth
- Competition from Eylea and Vabysmo in retina
| Net Income: -290.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.34 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.27k% < 20% (prev 586.4%; Δ 678.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.31 > 3% & CFO -226.2m > Net Income -290.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 14.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (224.1m) vs 12m ago 32.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.24% > 18% (prev 90.67%; Δ -3.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.14% > 50% (prev 14.69%; Δ -5.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -23.98 > 6 (EBIT TTM -278.9m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m) |
| A: 0.90 (Total Current Assets 706.0m - Total Current Liabilities 47.7m) / Total Assets 732.5m |
| B: -1.70 (Retained Earnings -1.25b / Total Assets 732.5m) |
| C: -0.49 (EBIT TTM -278.9m / Avg Total Assets 569.2m) |
| D: 3.85 (Book Value of Equity 581.6m / Total Liabilities 151.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.10 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 24.3m/25.2m, Revenue 52.0m/59.6m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 90.67% / 87.24%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 52.0m / 59.6m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -290.5m - CFO -226.2m) / TA 732.5m) |
| Beneish M = -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.33 with a total of 2,830,198 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.34%, over one month by +26.59%, over three months by +23.86% and over the past year by +7.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.50 (which is 8% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Ocular Therapeutix has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OCUL.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 27.1 | 162.2% |
P/S = 39.8469
P/B = 3.5654
Revenue TTM = 52.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -278.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -274.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 72.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 86.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.40m
Net Debt = -574.2m USD (calculated: Debt 86.9m - CCE 661.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.50b USD (2.07b + Debt 86.9m - CCE 661.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -23.98 (Ebit TTM -278.9m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
EV/FCF = -5.94x (Enterprise Value 1.50b / FCF TTM -252.3m)
FCF Yield = -16.83% (FCF TTM -252.3m / Enterprise Value 1.50b)
FCF Margin = -484.8% (FCF TTM -252.3m / Revenue TTM 52.0m)
Net Margin = -558.2% (Net Income TTM -290.5m / Revenue TTM 52.0m)
Gross Margin = 87.24% ((Revenue TTM 52.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.64m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.68% (prev 87.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.05 (Enterprise Value 1.50b / Total Assets 732.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.39% (Interest Expense 11.6m / Debt 86.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -220.3m (EBIT -278.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 12.67 (Total Current Assets 706.0m / Total Current Liabilities 55.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 86.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 581.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.09 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -574.2m / EBITDA -274.2m)
Debt / FCF = 2.28 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -574.2m / FCF TTM -252.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 450.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -51.03% (Net Income -290.5m / Total Assets 732.5m)
RoE = -64.55% (Net Income TTM -290.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 450.0m)
RoCE = -53.42% (EBIT -278.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 450.0m + L.T.Debt 72.1m))
RoIC = -32.14% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -220.3m / Invested Capital 685.4m)
WACC = 8.55% (E(2.07b)/V(2.16b) * Re(8.47%) + D(86.9m)/V(2.16b) * Rd(13.39%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 37.87%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -252.3m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -2.09 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -41.20 | Revenue CAGR: -2.91% | SUE: -0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.39 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.39 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.55 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-9.3% | GrowthRev=-0.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-1.54 | Chg30d=-0.99% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+1.0% | GrowthRev=+131.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)