(ODFL) Old Dominion Freight Line - Ratings and Ratios
LTL, Expedited, Drayage, Brokerage, Consulting
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.73% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.10% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 17.59% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 22.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 56.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.23% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.78 |
| Alpha | -46.96 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.405 |
| Beta | 1.099 |
| Beta Downside | 0.897 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.18% |
| Mean DD | 16.04% |
| Median DD | 12.87% |
Description: ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line October 14, 2025
Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) is a U.S.-based less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier that offers regional, inter-regional, national, and expedited LTL services, supplemented by value-added offerings such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply-chain consulting. The firm also runs its own service and fleet-maintenance centers. As of 31 December 2024, ODFL’s asset base comprised 11,284 tractors, 31,451 linehaul trailers, and 15,263 pickup-and-delivery trailers. Founded in 1934, the company is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
Key operational metrics from recent filings show an operating ratio of roughly 89 % for FY 2023, indicating strong cost control relative to peers, and a capacity utilization rate consistently above 95 %-a sign that demand for LTL capacity remains robust. The sector’s growth is being driven by e-commerce volume expansion (estimated +6 % YoY in 2023) and a shift toward “last-mile” distribution, while macro-economic pressures such as driver shortages and volatile fuel prices represent material cost risks. ODFL’s balance sheet remains solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio under 0.5 and cash on hand exceeding $500 million, providing flexibility for fleet upgrades and potential acquisitions.
For a deeper dive into how ODFL’s financials compare to industry baselines and to explore scenario-based valuations, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (1.06b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 334.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.17 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 2.02% (prev 3.06%; Δ -1.05pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.46b > Net Income 1.06b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (38.4m) to EBITDA (1.75b) ratio: 0.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.20 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.9m) change vs 12m ago -2.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 33.01% (prev 35.19%; Δ -2.18pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 101.9% (prev 109.2%; Δ -7.30pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 37.6k (EBITDA TTM 1.75b / Interest Expense TTM 37.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 7.59
| (A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 663.8m - Total Current Liabilities 551.4m) / Total Assets 5.52b |
| (B) 0.73 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.01b / Total Assets 5.52b |
| (C) 0.25 = EBIT TTM 1.39b / Avg Total Assets 5.47b |
| (D) 3.22 = Book Value of Equity 4.03b / Total Liabilities 1.25b |
| Total Rating: 7.59 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.45
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.31% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.52% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 14.07)% |
| 7. RoE 24.92% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -54.95% |
| 9. EPS Trend -85.78% |
What is the price of ODFL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.69%, over one month by +8.81%, over three months by +3.36% and over the past year by -26.73%.
Is ODFL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the ODFL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 157.2 | 2.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 157.2 | 2.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 149.5 | -2.6% |
ODFL Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 26.6258
P/E Forward = 24.2718
P/S = 4.9887
P/B = 6.5861
P/EG = 2.4933
Beta = 1.271
Revenue TTM = 5.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.39b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.75b USD
Long Term Debt = 65.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 85.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 38.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 27.85b USD (27.81b + Debt 85.0m - CCE 46.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.6k (Ebit TTM 1.39b / Interest Expense TTM 37.0k)
FCF Yield = 3.31% (FCF TTM 920.7m / Enterprise Value 27.85b)
FCF Margin = 16.52% (FCF TTM 920.7m / Revenue TTM 5.57b)
Net Margin = 18.97% (Net Income TTM 1.06b / Revenue TTM 5.57b)
Gross Margin = 33.01% ((Revenue TTM 5.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.34% (prev 32.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.05 (Enterprise Value 27.85b / Total Assets 5.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 4000 / Debt 85.0m)
Taxrate = 24.91% (89.9m / 360.8m)
NOPAT = 1.05b (EBIT 1.39b * (1 - 24.91%))
Current Ratio = 1.20 (Total Current Assets 663.8m / Total Current Liabilities 551.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 85.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.02 (Net Debt 38.4m / EBITDA 1.75b)
Debt / FCF = 0.04 (Net Debt 38.4m / FCF TTM 920.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.17% (Net Income 1.06b / Total Assets 5.52b)
RoE = 24.92% (Net Income TTM 1.06b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.24b)
RoCE = 32.31% (EBIT 1.39b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.24b + L.T.Debt 65.0m))
RoIC = 24.10% (NOPAT 1.05b / Invested Capital 4.34b)
WACC = 10.03% (E(27.81b)/V(27.90b) * Re(10.06%) + D(85.0m)/V(27.90b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.94%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.53% ; FCFE base≈947.9m ; Y1≈962.5m ; Y5≈1.05b
Fair Price DCF = 63.60 (DCF Value 13.30b / Shares Outstanding 209.1m; 5y FCF grow 1.26% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -85.78 | EPS CAGR: -15.53% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -54.95 | Revenue CAGR: -0.07% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-0.136 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=13
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.25 | Chg30d=-0.140 | Revisions Net=-17 | Growth EPS=+8.9% | Growth Revenue=+3.8%
Additional Sources for ODFL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle