(OLLI) Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg - Overview
Stock: Closeout, Housewares, Toys, Food, Bedding
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.10 |
| Alpha | -16.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.787 |
| Beta Downside | 0.373 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.13% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.01 |
Description: OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg January 07, 2026
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) is a U.S. retailer that specializes in closeout and excess-inventory merchandise across categories such as housewares, food, health & beauty, toys, electronics, and seasonal items, operating under a portfolio of private-label banners including “Ollies,” “Good Stuff Cheap,” and “Real Brands! Real Bargains.”
Founded in 1982 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the company rebranded from Bargain Holdings, Inc. to its current name in March 2015 and now runs roughly 460 stores nationwide, positioning itself in the Broadline Retail sub-industry.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year (FY 2023) show revenue of about $2.6 billion, a comparable-store sales increase of roughly 5%, and an operating margin near 6%, while inventory turnover sits around 5.5×-metrics that underscore its ability to convert low-cost inventory into sales efficiently.
Macro-level drivers that materially affect Ollies include persistent consumer demand for value-oriented retail amid modest inflationary pressure, a relatively resilient discretionary spending pattern in the “discount” segment, and supply-chain disruptions that continue to generate closeout opportunities for the chain.
For a deeper quantitative view of Ollies valuation metrics, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 223.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.37% < 20% (prev 26.92%; Δ -5.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 261.9m > Net Income 223.6m |
| Net Debt (526.0m) to EBITDA (340.0m): 1.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.8m) vs 12m ago 0.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.74% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 4035 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.27% > 50% (prev 91.21%; Δ 4.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
Altman Z'' 5.29
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 903.8m - Total Current Liabilities 361.6m) / Total Assets 2.86b |
| B: 0.53 (Retained Earnings 1.52b / Total Assets 2.86b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 294.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.66b) |
| D: 1.49 (Book Value of Equity 1.52b / Total Liabilities 1.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.29 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.91
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 2.54m/2.37m, Revenue 2.54b/2.25b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 40.74% / 39.52%) |
| AQI: 1.18 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 2.54b / 2.25b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 223.6m - CFO 261.9m) / TA 2.86b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of OLLI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.40%, over one month by -7.37%, over three months by -12.83% and over the past year by +0.66%.
Is OLLI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OLLI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 141.7 | 30.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 141.7 | 30.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 114.5 | 5.7% |
OLLI Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 24.4499
P/S = 2.6605
P/B = 3.6915
P/EG = 2.08
Revenue TTM = 2.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 294.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 340.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.10m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 96.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 670.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 526.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.23b USD (6.75b + Debt 670.7m - CCE 186.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 294.2m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 39.23x (Enterprise Value 7.23b / FCF TTM 184.4m)
FCF Yield = 2.55% (FCF TTM 184.4m / Enterprise Value 7.23b)
FCF Margin = 7.27% (FCF TTM 184.4m / Revenue TTM 2.54b)
Net Margin = 8.81% (Net Income TTM 223.6m / Revenue TTM 2.54b)
Gross Margin = 40.74% ((Revenue TTM 2.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.50b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.34% (prev 39.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.53 (Enterprise Value 7.23b / Total Assets 2.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.69% (Interest Expense 4.63m / Debt 670.7m)
Taxrate = 22.97% (13.8m / 59.9m)
NOPAT = 226.6m (EBIT 294.2m * (1 - 22.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 903.8m / Total Current Liabilities 361.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 670.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.55 (Net Debt 526.0m / EBITDA 340.0m)
Debt / FCF = 2.85 (Net Debt 526.0m / FCF TTM 184.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.40% (Net Income 223.6m / Total Assets 2.86b)
RoE = 12.70% (Net Income TTM 223.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.76b)
RoCE = 16.70% (EBIT 294.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.76b + L.T.Debt 1.10m))
RoIC = 12.86% (NOPAT 226.6m / Invested Capital 1.76b)
WACC = 8.07% (E(6.75b)/V(7.42b) * Re(8.82%) + D(670.7m)/V(7.42b) * Rd(0.69%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.20%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.65% ; FCFF base≈144.2m ; Y1≈119.0m ; Y5≈85.8m
Fair Price DCF = 16.72 (EV 1.55b - Net Debt 526.0m = Equity 1.03b / Shares 61.3m; r=8.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -21.04% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 28.88 | EPS CAGR: -30.23% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.25 | Revenue CAGR: 5.55% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=4.48 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+15.7% | Growth Revenue=+13.1%