(OLLI) Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg - Overview

Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Discount Stores | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 5.840m USD | Total Return: -11.9% in 12m

Stock Housewares, Food, Apparel, Toys, Books
Total Rating 47
Safety 74
Buy Signal -0.66
Discount Stores +1.6
Broadline Retail +11.1
Market Cap: 5,840m
Avg Trading Vol: 141M USD
ATR: 4.26%
Peers RS (IBD): 19.4
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility38.9%
Rel. Tail Risk-7.51%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Alpha-34.48
Character TTM
Beta0.954
Beta Downside1.278
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD36.62%
CAGR/Max DD0.49
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of OLLI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-04": 0.8, "2021-07": 0.52, "2021-10": 0.34, "2022-01": 0.69, "2022-04": 0.2, "2022-07": 0.22, "2022-10": 0.37, "2023-01": 0.84, "2023-04": 0.49, "2023-07": 0.67, "2023-10": 0.51, "2024-01": 1.23, "2024-04": 0.73, "2024-07": 0.78, "2024-10": 0.58, "2025-01": 1.19, "2025-04": 0.75, "2025-07": 0.99, "2025-10": 0.75, "2026-01": 1.39,
EPS CAGR: 67.70%
EPS Trend: 76.3%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of OLLI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-04: 452.492, 2021-07: 415.881, 2021-10: 383.487, 2022-01: 501.135, 2022-04: 406.666, 2022-07: 452.482, 2022-10: 418.072, 2023-01: 549.789, 2023-04: 459.154, 2023-07: 514.509, 2023-10: 480.05, 2024-01: 648.949, 2024-04: 508.818, 2024-07: 578.375, 2024-10: 517.428, 2025-01: 667.084, 2025-04: 576.767, 2025-07: 679.556, 2025-10: 613.619, 2026-01: 779.256,
Rev. CAGR: 18.94%
Rev. Trend: 84.9%
Last SUE: -0.46
Qual. Beats: 0
Risks
Technicals: choppy
Description: OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a Pennsylvania-based retailer specializing in the sale of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The company operates through a diverse inventory model covering categories such as housewares, food, health and beauty aids, and electronics. It markets products under several proprietary brands, including Ollies Army and Good Stuff Cheap.

The business model relies on opportunistic buying, where the company purchases high-quality branded goods from manufacturers at deep discounts resulting from overproduction or packaging changes. This segment of the broadline retail sector typically performs counter-cyclically, as consumer demand for value-oriented pricing often increases during periods of economic volatility. Exploring the companys historical margin trends on ValueRay can provide further clarity on its operational efficiency.

Founded in 1982, the company underwent a corporate name change in 2015 and continues to expand its physical footprint across the United States. Its strategy focuses on Real Brands! Real Bargains, leveraging a revolving supply chain of liquidated stock to maintain a competitive pricing advantage over traditional big-box retailers.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Closeout inventory availability impacts merchandise margins
  • Consumer discretionary spending shifts affect sales volume
  • Supply chain disruptions increase freight and logistics costs
  • New store openings drive revenue growth
  • Inflationary pressures influence operating expenses
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 9.0
Net Income: 240.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.41 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 21.28% < 20% (prev 30.35%; Δ -9.07% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 296.5m > Net Income 240.6m
Net Debt (426.2m) to EBITDA (368.3m): 1.16 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.41 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.7m) vs 12m ago -0.35% < -2%
Gross Margin: 38.95% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 3.86k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 96.05% > 50% (prev 88.70%; Δ 7.35% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.24k > 6 (EBITDA TTM 368.3m / Interest Expense TTM 256k)
Altman Z'' 5.38
A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 964.1m - Total Current Liabilities 400.4m) / Total Assets 2.95b
B: 0.54 (Retained Earnings 1.61b / Total Assets 2.95b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 316.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.76b)
D: 1.51 (Book Value of Equity 1.61b / Total Liabilities 1.07b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 5.38 = AAA
Beneish M -2.46
DSRI: 1.39 (Receivables 3.81m/2.35m, Revenue 2.65b/2.27b)
GMI: 1.02 (GM 38.95% / 39.91%)
AQI: 1.21 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.26)
SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 2.65b / 2.27b)
TATA: -0.02 (NI 240.6m - CFO 296.5m) / TA 2.95b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.46 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of OLLI shares? As of April 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 95.22 with a total of 1,886,400 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.40%, over one month by -12.83%, over three months by -18.59% and over the past year by -11.89%.
Is OLLI a buy, sell or hold? Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OLLI.
  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OLLI price?
Wallstreet Target Price 139.3 46.3%
Analysts Target Price 139.3 46.3%
OLLI Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 24.4782
P/E Forward = 20.284
P/S = 2.2045
P/B = 2.946
P/EG = 2.08
Revenue TTM = 2.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 316.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 368.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 974k USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 109.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 685.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 426.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.23b USD (5.84b + Debt 685.9m - CCE 296.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.24k (Ebit TTM 316.6m / Interest Expense TTM 256k)
EV/FCF = 32.00x (Enterprise Value 6.23b / FCF TTM 194.7m)
FCF Yield = 3.12% (FCF TTM 194.7m / Enterprise Value 6.23b)
FCF Margin = 7.35% (FCF TTM 194.7m / Revenue TTM 2.65b)
Net Margin = 9.08% (Net Income TTM 240.6m / Revenue TTM 2.65b)
Gross Margin = 38.95% ((Revenue TTM 2.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.99% (prev 39.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.11 (Enterprise Value 6.23b / Total Assets 2.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.68% (Interest Expense 4.63m / Debt 685.9m)
Taxrate = 24.93% (28.4m / 114.0m)
NOPAT = 237.7m (EBIT 316.6m * (1 - 24.93%))
Current Ratio = 2.41 (Total Current Assets 964.1m / Total Current Liabilities 400.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 685.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.16 (Net Debt 426.2m / EBITDA 368.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.19 (Net Debt 426.2m / FCF TTM 194.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.72% (Net Income 240.6m / Total Assets 2.95b)
RoE = 13.30% (Net Income TTM 240.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.81b)
RoCE = 17.49% (EBIT 316.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.81b + L.T.Debt 974k))
RoIC = 13.13% (NOPAT 237.7m / Invested Capital 1.81b)
WACC = 8.41% (E(5.84b)/V(6.53b) * Re(9.34%) + D(685.9m)/V(6.53b) * Rd(0.68%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.68% ; FCFF base≈159.6m ; Y1≈131.7m ; Y5≈95.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.94 (EV 1.64b - Net Debt 426.2m = Equity 1.22b / Shares 61.0m; r=8.41% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -21.04% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.29 | EPS CAGR: 67.70% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.91 | Revenue CAGR: 18.94% | SUE: -0.46 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.009 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=4.48 | Chg7d=+0.001 | Chg30d=-0.052 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+16.1% | Growth Revenue=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=5.12 | Chg7d=+0.013 | Chg30d=+0.052 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+11.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.17 (5 Up / 7 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 5.3% (Discount Rate 9.3% - Earnings Yield 4.1%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +8.9% (Analyst 14.1% - Implied 5.3%)
External Resources
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