OLLI Stock Analysis: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg | NASDAQ
Discount Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 5.211m USD | 12M Return: -25.7% | US6811161099 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 146M
EPS Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) is a U.S. retailer specializing in closeout merchandise and excess inventory, offering a broad assortment of products at discounted prices. Its merchandise mix spans health and beauty, food and beverages, pet supplies, cleaning, housewares, home decor, furniture, seasonal items, electronics, clothing, sporting goods, and general merchandise, sold under proprietary brand names including Ollies, Good Stuff Cheap, and American Way. Founded in 1982 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the company is listed on NASDAQ as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The company operates within the off-price/closeout retail model, which is characterized by purchasing excess inventory, manufacturer overruns, and packaging changes from suppliers at deep discounts and reselling them at lower prices than traditional retailers. This model allows closeout retailers to offer treasure hunt shopping experiences with constantly changing inventory, which drives frequent customer visits and distinguishes them from conventional discount and broadline retailers.
- New store expansion accelerates unit growth and revenue
- Low-income consumer spending pressured by inflation and tariffs
- Closeout supply chain access underpins margin and competitive moat
| Net Income: 273.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.09% < 20% (prev 24.56%; Δ -6.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 340.8m > Net Income 273.6m |
| Net Debt (538.1m) to EBITDA (422.6m): 1.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.2m) vs 12m ago -2.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.13% > 18% (prev 40.74%; Δ -0.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.83% > 50% (prev 87.12%; Δ 8.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 458.8 > 6 (EBIT TTM 363.8m / Interest Expense TTM 793k) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 916.9m - Total Current Liabilities 411.6m) / Total Assets 3.03b |
| B: 0.58 (Retained Earnings 1.75b / Total Assets 3.03b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 363.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.91b) |
| D: 1.67 (Book Value of Equity 1.90b / Total Liabilities 1.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.58 = AAA |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 7.80m/1.81m, Revenue 2.79b/2.44b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 40.74% / 40.13%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 2.79b / 2.44b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 273.6m - CFO 340.8m) / TA 3.03b) |
| Beneish M = -1.19 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of November 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 90.26 with a total of 1,250,379 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.90%, over one month by +4.01%, over three months by +24.09% and over the past year by -25.68%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 80.40 (which is 10.9% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OLLI.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 101.6 | 12.6% |
P/E Trailing = 19.6242
P/E Forward = 17.0358
P/S = 1.8656
P/B = 2.3496
P/EG = 2.08
Revenue TTM = 2.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 363.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 422.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.42m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 100.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 725.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 723.4m already included)
Net Debt = 538.1m USD (calculated: Debt 725.6m - CCE 187.5m)
Enterprise Value = 5.75b USD (5.21b + Debt 725.6m - CCE 187.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 458.8 (Ebit TTM 363.8m / Interest Expense TTM 793k)
EV/FCF = 25.75x (Enterprise Value 5.75b / FCF TTM 223.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.88% (FCF TTM 223.2m / Enterprise Value 5.75b)
FCF Margin = 7.99% (FCF TTM 223.2m / Revenue TTM 2.79b)
Net Margin = 9.79% (Net Income TTM 273.6m / Revenue TTM 2.79b)
Gross Margin = 40.13% ((Revenue TTM 2.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.94% (prev 41.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.90 (Enterprise Value 5.75b / Total Assets 3.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 793k / Debt 725.6m)
Taxrate = 24.64% (89.5m / 363.0m)
NOPAT = 274.2m (EBIT 363.8m * (1 - 24.64%))
Current Ratio = 2.23 (Total Current Assets 916.9m / Total Current Liabilities 411.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 725.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.90b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.27 (Net Debt 538.1m / EBITDA 422.6m)
Debt / FCF = 2.41 (Net Debt 538.1m / FCF TTM 223.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.39% (Net Income 273.6m / Total Assets 3.03b)
RoE = 14.58% (Net Income TTM 273.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.88b)
RoCE = 19.37% (EBIT 363.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.88b + L.T.Debt 1.42m))
RoIC = 10.64% (NOPAT 274.2m / Invested Capital 2.58b)
WACC = 6.86% (E(5.21b)/V(5.94b) * Re(7.80%) + D(725.6m)/V(5.94b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -65.31 | Cagr: -1.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈191.6m ; Y1≈219.7m ; Y5≈323.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 72.85 (EV 4.87b - Net Debt 538.1m = Equity 4.33b / Shares 59.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.58 | EPS CAGR: 17.63% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.15 | Revenue CAGR: 12.48% | SUE: -0.90 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.17% | Revisions=-59% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=4.61 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+83% | GrowthEPS=+19.4% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=4.95 | Chg30d=+0.20% | Revisions=-56% | GrowthEPS=+7.4% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -9% (up=19, down=23)