OLLI Stock Analysis: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg | NASDAQ
Discount Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.486m USD | 12M Return: -48.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 192M
EPS Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) is a U.S. retailer specializing in closeout merchandise and excess inventory, offering a broad assortment across categories including health and beauty, food and beverages, pet supplies, housewares, home decor, furniture, seasonal goods, toys, books, electronics, clothing, and sporting goods. The company sells under multiple brand names, most notably Ollies and Ollies Bargain Outlet, as well as Good Stuff Cheap, Ollies Army, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, and American Way. Ollies was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. It was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. before adopting its current name in March 2015, and has been publicly traded since its July 2015 IPO.
As a closeout retailer, Ollies purchases surplus, discontinued, or overstocked inventory directly from manufacturers, suppliers, and other retailers at deep discounts and resells that merchandise to consumers at reduced prices, typically 20–70% below traditional retail. This opportunistic sourcing model differentiates Ollies from conventional discount retailers and dollar stores, and the company is categorized within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Broadline Retail sub-industry.
- New store unit growth drives comparable sales expansion
- Lower-income consumer spending pressures ticket and traffic
- Tariff costs and closeout sourcing availability squeeze gross margins
| Net Income: 249.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 20.02% < 20% (prev 27.79%; Δ -7.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 313.3m > Net Income 249.4m |
| Net Debt (460.7m) to EBITDA (393.5m): 1.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.2m) vs 12m ago -1.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.59% > 18% (prev 40.27%; Δ -0.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.82% > 50% (prev 86.43%; Δ 9.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 54.47 > 6 (EBIT TTM 336.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.17m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 961.0m - Total Current Liabilities 414.2m) / Total Assets 2.99b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 1.66b / Total Assets 2.99b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 336.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.85b) |
| D: 1.71 (Book Value of Equity 1.89b / Total Liabilities 1.10b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.60 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.78 (Receivables 4.89m/2.35m, Revenue 2.73b/2.34b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 40.27% / 39.59%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 2.73b / 2.34b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 249.4m - CFO 313.3m) / TA 2.99b) |
| Beneish M = -2.13 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 64.90 with a total of 2,008,727 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.55%, over one month by -17.11%, over three months by -27.82% and over the past year by -48.77%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 59.60 (which is 8.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy OLLI.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 120.2 | 85.2% |
P/E Trailing = 18.3688
P/E Forward = 17.2117
P/S = 1.6425
P/B = 2.4155
P/EG = 2.08
Revenue TTM = 2.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 336.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 393.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.51m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 112.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 710.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 707.9m already included)
Net Debt = 460.7m USD (calculated: Debt 710.3m - CCE 249.6m)
Enterprise Value = 4.95b USD (4.49b + Debt 710.3m - CCE 249.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 54.47 (Ebit TTM 336.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.17m)
EV/FCF = 23.26x (Enterprise Value 4.95b / FCF TTM 212.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.30% (FCF TTM 212.7m / Enterprise Value 4.95b)
FCF Margin = 7.79% (FCF TTM 212.7m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Net Margin = 9.13% (Net Income TTM 249.4m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Gross Margin = 39.59% ((Revenue TTM 2.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.88% (prev 35.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.65 (Enterprise Value 4.95b / Total Assets 2.99b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.87% (Interest Expense 6.17m / Debt 710.3m)
Taxrate = 24.40% (80.5m / 329.9m)
NOPAT = 254.1m (EBIT 336.1m * (1 - 24.40%))
Current Ratio = 2.32 (Total Current Assets 961.0m / Total Current Liabilities 414.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 710.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.17 (Net Debt 460.7m / EBITDA 393.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.17 (Net Debt 460.7m / FCF TTM 212.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.75% (Net Income 249.4m / Total Assets 2.99b)
RoE = 13.49% (Net Income TTM 249.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.85b)
RoCE = 18.16% (EBIT 336.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.85b + L.T.Debt 1.51m))
RoIC = 9.94% (NOPAT 254.1m / Invested Capital 2.56b)
WACC = 7.68% (E(4.49b)/V(5.20b) * Re(8.79%) + D(710.3m)/V(5.20b) * Rd(0.87%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈165.9m ; Y1≈190.1m ; Y5≈279.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 62.03 (EV 4.21b - Net Debt 460.7m = Equity 3.75b / Shares 60.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.01 | EPS CAGR: 18.35% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.16 | Revenue CAGR: 12.44% | SUE: -0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=+0.62% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.84 | Chg30d=-2.23% | Revisions=-61% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=4.49 | Chg30d=+1.19% | Revisions=+24% | GrowthEPS=+16.4% | GrowthRev=+12.5%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=5.12 | Chg30d=+0.85% | Revisions=+13% | GrowthEPS=+13.9% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=20, down=34)