(OLMA) Olema Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: Palazestrant, OP-3136
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 89.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.38 |
| Alpha | 276.83 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.136 |
| Beta Downside | -0.131 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 82.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.95 |
Description: OLMA Olema Pharmaceuticals December 31, 2025
Olema Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OLMA) is a clinical-stage biotech that concentrates on novel oral therapies for estrogen-receptor-positive (ER+) / HER2-negative breast cancer, the most common subtype of women’s cancers worldwide.
Its lead candidate, **palazestrant**, is a dual-action estrogen-receptor antagonist and selective degrader (SERD). The drug is currently in three concurrent studies: the pivotal Phase 3 OPERA-01 monotherapy trial in second-/third-line metastatic ER+/HER2- disease; combination arms with CDK4/6 inhibitors (palbociclib, ribociclib), the PI3Kα inhibitor alpelisib, and the mTOR inhibitor everolimus (Phase 1/2); and a separate Phase 3 trial for recurrent/metastatic disease. Positive readouts from any of these studies would be a material catalyst for the stock.
Olema’s secondary pipeline includes **OP-3136**, an orally bioavailable KAT6 inhibitor targeting the same ER+/HER2- population and other solid tumors. OP-3136 is in Phase 1, and early-stage data are expected in H2 2025. The company also retains a small-molecule platform that could be leveraged for future indications.
Key financial and market context (as of the latest 10-Q, Q3 2024): market capitalization ≈ $120 M; cash and equivalents ≈ $45 M, giving roughly 12 months of runway at current burn (~$3.5 M / quarter). The global ER+/HER2- breast-cancer market is projected to exceed $12 B by 2028, driven by an aging female population and expanding use of CDK4/6-based regimens-both of which are direct comparators for palazestrant. A critical risk is the competitive landscape, where next-generation oral SERDs such as elacestrant (Roche) and giredestrant (Roche) have already secured FDA approvals, potentially compressing pricing power.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of OLMA’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analyst tools on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -150.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.38 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 80.4k% < 20% (prev 9941 %; Δ 70.5k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.38 > 3% & CFO -134.7m > Net Income -150.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 8.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (85.7m) vs 12m ago 49.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.84% > 18% (prev 0.81%; Δ 1403 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.12% > 50% (prev 0.82%; Δ -0.69% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -13.75 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -161.3m / Interest Expense TTM -11.8m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.83 (Total Current Assets 334.3m - Total Current Liabilities 41.7m) / Total Assets 352.5m |
| B: -1.56 (Retained Earnings -551.5m / Total Assets 352.5m) |
| C: -0.56 (EBIT TTM -161.7m / Avg Total Assets 291.3m) |
| D: -12.25 (Book Value of Equity -551.0m / Total Liabilities 45.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -16.25 = D |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 22.38 (Receivables 2.97m/687.0k, Revenue 364.0k/1.88m) |
| GMI: 5.43 (GM 14.84% / 80.63%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.19 (Revenue 364.0k / 1.88m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -150.0m - CFO -134.7m) / TA 352.5m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 18.02 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of OLMA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.40%, over one month by +1.28%, over three months by +209.65% and over the past year by +305.76%.
Is OLMA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OLMA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 45.9 | 81% |
| Analysts Target Price | 45.9 | 81% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 25.6 | 0.9% |
OLMA Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
Revenue TTM = 364.0k USD
EBIT TTM = -161.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -161.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.00m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.48m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -30.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.74b USD (2.06b + Debt 4.48m - CCE 329.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -13.75 (Ebit TTM -161.7m / Interest Expense TTM -11.8m)
EV/FCF = -12.90x (Enterprise Value 1.74b / FCF TTM -134.7m)
FCF Yield = -7.75% (FCF TTM -134.7m / Enterprise Value 1.74b)
FCF Margin = -37.0k% (FCF TTM -134.7m / Revenue TTM 364.0k)
Net Margin = -41.2k% (Net Income TTM -150.0m / Revenue TTM 364.0k)
Gross Margin = 14.84% ((Revenue TTM 364.0k - Cost of Revenue TTM 310.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.93 (Enterprise Value 1.74b / Total Assets 352.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 29.39% (Interest Expense 1.32m / Debt 4.48m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -127.8m (EBIT -161.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 8.03 (Total Current Assets 334.3m / Total Current Liabilities 41.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 4.48m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 307.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -30.8m / EBITDA -161.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.23 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -30.8m / FCF TTM -134.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 361.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -51.48% (Net Income -150.0m / Total Assets 352.5m)
RoE = -41.51% (Net Income TTM -150.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 361.3m)
RoCE = -44.39% (EBIT -161.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 361.3m + L.T.Debt 3.00m))
RoIC = -35.22% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -127.8m / Invested Capital 362.8m)
WACC = 6.46% (E(2.06b)/V(2.07b) * Re(6.42%) + D(4.48m)/V(2.07b) * Rd(29.39%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 25.10%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -134.7m)
EPS Correlation: 66.58 | EPS CAGR: 33.84% | SUE: 2.09 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 9.12 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.53 | Chg30d=+0.029 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.31 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-20.5% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%