(OLPX) Olaplex Holdings - Overview
Stock: Shampoo, Conditioner, Serum, Mask, Salons, E-Commerce
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 72.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.79% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 |
| Alpha | -20.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.428 |
| Beta Downside | 1.408 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 84.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.45 |
Description: OLPX Olaplex Holdings January 25, 2026
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLPX) designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of premium hair-care products-including shampoos, conditioners, masks, serums, and in-salon services-through professional salons, retail chains, its own e-commerce site, and third-party platforms. The company, founded in 2014 and headquartered in New York, operates primarily in the U.S. but distributes internationally.
**Recent performance metrics (Q2 2025)**: reported net revenue of **$165 million**, a **12 % year-over-year increase**, driven largely by a **30 % rise in e-commerce sales** and a **15 % expansion of its salon-partner network**. Gross margin held steady at **~78 %**, reflecting the high-value nature of its patented bond-building technology. The balance sheet remains solid with **$420 million of cash and equivalents** and **no long-term debt** as of the latest filing.
**Sector and macro drivers**: the personal-care segment is benefitting from a **steady rebound in discretionary consumer spending** (U.S. personal-care sales up ~4 % YoY in 2024) and a **persistent premiumization trend**, where consumers are willing to pay a 20-30 % premium for scientifically backed hair-care solutions. Additionally, the **post-pandemic revival of professional salon services**-estimated to grow at 5-6 % annually through 2027-provides a tailwind for Olaplex’s B2B channel.
**Key risks and uncertainties**: the company’s growth hinges on maintaining its brand differentiation amid intensifying competition from both established consumer-goods giants and emerging indie brands. A material slowdown in salon traffic or a significant rise in raw-material costs (e.g., specialty polymers) could compress margins. Moreover, the reliance on e-commerce platforms introduces exposure to changing platform fees and algorithmic traffic shifts.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: -4.95m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.90% < 20% (prev 141.4%; Δ -55.50% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 75.6m > Net Income -4.95m |
| Net Debt (65.7m) to EBITDA (91.9m): 0.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (668.9m) vs 12m ago 0.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.43% > 18% (prev 0.65%; Δ 6578 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.57% > 50% (prev 24.65%; Δ 0.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.79 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 91.9m / Interest Expense TTM 48.7m) |
Altman Z'' 3.82
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 473.2m - Total Current Liabilities 113.7m) / Total Assets 1.51b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 549.8m / Total Assets 1.51b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 38.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.64b) |
| D: 0.88 (Book Value of Equity 550.0m / Total Liabilities 625.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.82 = AA |
Beneish M -2.42
| DSRI: 1.78 (Receivables 59.9m/34.9m, Revenue 418.6m/433.6m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 66.43% / 64.63%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 418.6m / 433.6m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -4.95m - CFO 75.6m) / TA 1.51b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of OLPX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.06%, over one month by +11.11%, over three months by +38.89% and over the past year by -1.96%.
Is OLPX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OLPX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2 | 34.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2 | 34.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.3 | -14.7% |
OLPX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 2.5196
P/B = 1.1642
Revenue TTM = 418.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 38.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 91.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 352.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.75m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 352.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 65.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.12b USD (1.05b + Debt 352.1m - CCE 286.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.79 (Ebit TTM 38.4m / Interest Expense TTM 48.7m)
EV/FCF = 15.47x (Enterprise Value 1.12b / FCF TTM 72.4m)
FCF Yield = 6.46% (FCF TTM 72.4m / Enterprise Value 1.12b)
FCF Margin = 17.30% (FCF TTM 72.4m / Revenue TTM 418.6m)
Net Margin = -1.18% (Net Income TTM -4.95m / Revenue TTM 418.6m)
Gross Margin = 66.43% ((Revenue TTM 418.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 140.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.60% (prev 71.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 1.12b / Total Assets 1.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.18% (Interest Expense 7.69m / Debt 352.1m)
Taxrate = 27.46% (7.39m / 26.9m)
NOPAT = 27.8m (EBIT 38.4m * (1 - 27.46%))
Current Ratio = 4.16 (Total Current Assets 473.2m / Total Current Liabilities 113.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 352.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 888.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.72 (Net Debt 65.7m / EBITDA 91.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 65.7m / FCF TTM 72.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 878.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.30% (Net Income -4.95m / Total Assets 1.51b)
RoE = -0.56% (Net Income TTM -4.95m / Total Stockholder Equity 878.9m)
RoCE = 3.12% (EBIT 38.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 878.9m + L.T.Debt 352.1m))
RoIC = 2.02% (NOPAT 27.8m / Invested Capital 1.38b)
WACC = 8.78% (E(1.05b)/V(1.41b) * Re(11.18%) + D(352.1m)/V(1.41b) * Rd(2.18%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 11.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.34% ; FCFF base≈98.8m ; Y1≈79.5m ; Y5≈54.5m
Fair Price DCF = 1.22 (EV 878.8m - Net Debt 65.7m = Equity 813.1m / Shares 667.5m; r=8.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -23.37% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -85.62 | EPS CAGR: -62.73% | SUE: -1.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.78 | Revenue CAGR: -9.49% | SUE: 0.75 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+37.4% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%