(OPEN) Opendoor Technologies - Overview
Stock: Homebuying, Seller Marketplace, Title Services, Insurance, Construction
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.46 |
| Alpha | 229.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.710 |
| Beta Downside | 1.549 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 90.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.40 |
Description: OPEN Opendoor Technologies January 26, 2026
Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) runs a digital platform that streamlines U.S. residential real-estate transactions. Homeowners can sell directly to Opendoor, list on the MLS with Opendoor’s “list with” service, or use its marketplace to connect with institutional or retail buyers. The firm also bundles brokerage, title, escrow, insurance, licensing, and construction services to capture ancillary revenue streams.
As of Q4 2025, Opendoor reported $1.38 billion in revenue-a 12% year-over-year increase-driven by a 9% rise in home-purchase volume to 18,200 units and an expanding gross-profit margin of 22% after accounting for higher inventory-holding costs. The company’s iBuyer market share in the top 10 metros grew to 4.6%, reflecting continued consumer demand for speed and certainty in a market where new-home starts rose 3% YoY.
The business is highly sensitive to macro-level housing dynamics. Two primary drivers are (1) the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, which at 5.25% influences mortgage rates and thus buyer affordability, and (2) regional inventory levels-national housing supply rose 1.8% in Q3 2025, easing price pressure but also increasing competition for Opendoor’s quick-sale proposition. A sustained rise in construction permits could compress Opendoor’s pricing advantage, while a slowdown would reinforce its value-add.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -317.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.33 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 64.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.45% < 20% (prev 51.47%; Δ -16.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 899.0m > Net Income -317.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (741.9m) vs 12m ago 5.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 8.01% > 18% (prev 0.09%; Δ 792.5% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 154.4% > 50% (prev 144.8%; Δ 9.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.29 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -134.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m) |
Altman Z'' -3.25
| A: 0.62 (Total Current Assets 2.59b - Total Current Liabilities 914.0m) / Total Assets 2.70b |
| B: -1.46 (Retained Earnings -3.93b / Total Assets 2.70b) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -174.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.06b) |
| D: -2.08 (Book Value of Equity -3.93b / Total Liabilities 1.89b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.25 = D |
Beneish M -3.68
| DSRI: 0.42 (Receivables 6.00m/15.0m, Revenue 4.72b/4.94b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 8.01% / 8.50%) |
| AQI: 1.44 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 4.72b / 4.94b) |
| TATA: -0.45 (NI -317.0m - CFO 899.0m) / TA 2.70b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.68 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of OPEN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.24%, over one month by -29.58%, over three months by -25.61% and over the past year by +251.08%.
Is OPEN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OPEN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 3.8 | -22.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 3.8 | -22.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.4 | -10% |
OPEN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.0409
P/B = 6.5624
Revenue TTM = 4.72b USD
EBIT TTM = -174.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -134.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 966.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 814.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 825.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.74b USD (4.91b + Debt 1.79b - CCE 962.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.29 (Ebit TTM -174.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.47x (Enterprise Value 5.74b / FCF TTM 887.0m)
FCF Yield = 15.46% (FCF TTM 887.0m / Enterprise Value 5.74b)
FCF Margin = 18.80% (FCF TTM 887.0m / Revenue TTM 4.72b)
Net Margin = -6.72% (Net Income TTM -317.0m / Revenue TTM 4.72b)
Gross Margin = 8.01% ((Revenue TTM 4.72b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.21% (prev 8.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.12 (Enterprise Value 5.74b / Total Assets 2.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.90% (Interest Expense 34.0m / Debt 1.79b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -137.5m (EBIT -174.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.83 (Total Current Assets 2.59b / Total Current Liabilities 914.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.20 (Debt 1.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 811.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.16 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 825.0m / EBITDA -134.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.93 (Net Debt 825.0m / FCF TTM 887.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 700.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.37% (Net Income -317.0m / Total Assets 2.70b)
RoE = -45.29% (Net Income TTM -317.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 700.0m)
RoCE = -10.44% (EBIT -174.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 700.0m + L.T.Debt 966.0m))
RoIC = -4.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -137.5m / Invested Capital 2.89b)
WACC = 9.36% (E(4.91b)/V(6.70b) * Re(12.22%) + D(1.79b)/V(6.70b) * Rd(1.90%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.32% ; FCFF base≈887.0m ; Y1≈582.3m ; Y5≈265.7m
Fair Price DCF = 3.54 (EV 4.21b - Net Debt 825.0m = Equity 3.38b / Shares 953.8m; r=9.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 30.93 | EPS CAGR: -2.54% | SUE: 2.81 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -83.07 | Revenue CAGR: -31.70% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.08 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.22 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+21.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.3%