ORLY Stock Analysis: O’Reilly Automotive | NASDAQ
Auto Parts | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 71.477m USD | 12M Return: -8.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 795M
EPS Trend: 92.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
OReilly Automotive (ORLY) is a leading specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, and accessories, operating stores across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional service installers-a dual-customer model typical of full-line auto parts retailers that diversifies revenue across retail and commercial demand.
Its merchandise mix spans new and remanufactured hard parts (alternators, batteries, brakes, engine and driveline components, starters, etc.) and consumable maintenance items (filters, fluids, oil, wipers, lighting, appearance products), alongside accessories, body paint supplies, and shop tools/equipment. OReilly complements product sales with in-store services such as battery, wiper, and bulb installation, diagnostic and check-engine code testing, used oil and battery recycling, a loaner tool program, drum and rotor resurfacing, custom hydraulic hose fabrication, and professional paint-shop mixing.
Products are marketed under a portfolio of proprietary brands, including OReilly Auto Parts, BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima. Founded
- DIY and professional demand lift comparable store sales growth
- Tariff exposure pressures margins on imported aftermarket parts
- Aggressive buyback program boosts earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 2.60b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.40% < 20% (prev -14.71%; Δ 2.31% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 3.04b > Net Income 2.60b |
| Net Debt (11.0b) to EBITDA (4.10b): 2.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (842.5m) vs 12m ago -2.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.63% > 18% (prev 51.23%; Δ 0.40% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 113.0% > 50% (prev 110.3%; Δ 2.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.58b / Interest Expense TTM 240.2m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 6.97b - Total Current Liabilities 9.22b) / Total Assets 16.9b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -2.64b / Total Assets 16.9b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 3.58b / Avg Total Assets 16.1b) |
| D: -0.06 (Book Value of Equity -1.07b / Total Liabilities 18.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.05 = B |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 596.2m/522.1m, Revenue 18.2b/16.9b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 51.23% / 51.63%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 18.2b / 16.9b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.60b - CFO 3.04b) / TA 16.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 86.05 with a total of 6,264,508 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.27%, over one month by +0.49%, over three months by -7.30% and over the past year by -8.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 81.70 (which is 5.1% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
O’Reilly Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.14. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ORLY.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 110.3 | 28.1% |
P/E Trailing = 26.9531
P/E Forward = 25.7069
P/S = 3.9261
P/B = 206.1799
P/EG = 1.7658
Revenue TTM = 18.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.10b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.20b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 445.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.54b
Net Debt = 11.0b USD (calculated: Debt 11.3b - CCE 252.6m)
Enterprise Value = 82.5b USD (71.5b + Debt 11.3b - CCE 252.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.89 (Ebit TTM 3.58b / Interest Expense TTM 240.2m)
EV/FCF = 43.11x (Enterprise Value 82.5b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
FCF Yield = 2.32% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 82.5b)
FCF Margin = 10.51% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 18.2b)
Net Margin = 14.30% (Net Income TTM 2.60b / Revenue TTM 18.2b)
Gross Margin = 51.63% ((Revenue TTM 18.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.81b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.47% (prev 51.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.87 (Enterprise Value 82.5b / Total Assets 16.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.13% (Interest Expense 240.2m / Debt 11.3b)
Taxrate = 21.94% (732.0m / 3.34b)
NOPAT = 2.79b (EBIT 3.58b * (1 - 21.94%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 6.97b / Total Current Liabilities 9.22b)
Debt / Equity = -10.56 (negative equity) (Debt 11.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.07b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.69 (Net Debt 11.0b / EBITDA 4.10b)
Debt / FCF = 5.76 (Net Debt 11.0b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -989.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.16% (Net Income 2.60b / Total Assets 16.9b)
RoE = -263.2% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.60b / Total Stockholder Equity -989.2m)
RoCE = 68.69% (EBIT 3.58b / Capital Employed (Equity -989.2m + L.T.Debt 6.20b))
RoIC = 35.31% (NOPAT 2.79b / Invested Capital 7.91b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(71.5b)/V(82.7b) * Re(6.62%) + D(11.3b)/V(82.7b) * Rd(2.13%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 7.88 | Cagr: -0.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.56% ; FCFF base≈1.96b ; Y1≈1.87b ; Y5≈1.78b
[DCF] Fair Price = 20.53 (EV 28.0b - Net Debt 11.0b = Equity 17.0b / Shares 828.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -6.17% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.05 | EPS CAGR: 5.21% | SUE: 1.54 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.52 | Revenue CAGR: 6.15% | SUE: 2.78 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+42% | Analysts=18
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+31% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.26 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+9.6% | GrowthRev=+7.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.62 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +45% (up=21, down=7)