(ORLY) O’Reilly Automotive - Ratings and Ratios
Parts, Tools, Fluids, Accessories, Paint
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 32.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.76 |
| Alpha | 12.89 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.20 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.395 |
| Beta | 0.165 |
| Beta Downside | 0.033 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 18.07% |
| Mean DD | 4.11% |
| Median DD | 3.53% |
Description: ORLY O’Reilly Automotive December 02, 2025
OReilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) is a U.S.-based retailer and supplier of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, operating across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. Its product mix spans new and remanufactured hard parts (e.g., alternators, brakes, batteries) as well as consumer accessories (e.g., floor mats, truck gear) and professional-service equipment.
Beyond product sales, the company differentiates itself with value-added services such as oil, filter and battery recycling, on-site diagnostic testing, loaner-tool programs, and custom paint-shop mixing, catering to both DIY enthusiasts and professional installers.
Key operational metrics (FY 2024) show a 5.2% same-store sales growth, a 1,200-store footprint (up 7% YoY), and an operating margin of roughly 9.8%, reflecting efficient inventory turnover (~5.5× per year) in a market where vehicle age averages 11 years-a core driver of aftermarket demand.
Macro-level drivers include rising vehicle-miles-travelled (VMT) post-pandemic, a tightening labor market that pushes owners toward DIY repairs, and supply-chain resilience that favors established distributors like OReilly. The aftermarket sector is expected to grow at a 3.5% CAGR through 2028, outpacing new-car sales.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst dashboard.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (2.48b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.05b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.82pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -12.10% (prev -15.12%; Δ 3.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.75b > Net Income 2.48b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (8.20b) to EBITDA (3.88b) ratio: 2.11 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.76 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (852.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.38% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 51.47% (prev 51.21%; Δ 0.27pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 113.2% (prev 112.8%; Δ 0.38pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 14.72 (EBITDA TTM 3.88b / Interest Expense TTM 229.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.01
| (A) -0.13 = (Total Current Assets 6.60b - Total Current Liabilities 8.71b) / Total Assets 16.28b |
| (B) -0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.44b / Total Assets 16.28b |
| (C) 0.22 = EBIT TTM 3.38b / Avg Total Assets 15.43b |
| (D) -0.14 = Book Value of Equity -2.41b / Total Liabilities 17.17b |
| Total Rating: -0.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.15
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.66% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.95% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -9.39 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.11 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 52.84)% |
| 7. RoE -204.7% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 90.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend 80.08% |
What is the price of ORLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.76%, over one month by +4.16%, over three months by -5.68% and over the past year by +20.13%.
Is ORLY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ORLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 110 | 11.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 110 | 11.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 114.2 | 15.5% |
ORLY Fundamental Data Overview December 02, 2025
P/E Trailing = 35.3125
P/E Forward = 30.3951
P/S = 4.927
P/B = 210.1772
P/EG = 2.1923
Beta = 0.621
Revenue TTM = 17.46b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.38b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.88b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.92b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 436.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.20b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 94.24b USD (86.04b + Debt 8.40b - CCE 204.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.72 (Ebit TTM 3.38b / Interest Expense TTM 229.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.66% (FCF TTM 1.56b / Enterprise Value 94.24b)
FCF Margin = 8.95% (FCF TTM 1.56b / Revenue TTM 17.46b)
Net Margin = 14.22% (Net Income TTM 2.48b / Revenue TTM 17.46b)
Gross Margin = 51.47% ((Revenue TTM 17.46b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.85% (prev 51.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.79 (Enterprise Value 94.24b / Total Assets 16.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.71% (Interest Expense 59.6m / Debt 8.40b)
Taxrate = 21.41% (197.8m / 923.6m)
NOPAT = 2.66b (EBIT 3.38b * (1 - 21.41%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 6.60b / Total Current Liabilities 8.71b)
Debt / Equity = -9.39 (negative equity) (Debt 8.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -894.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.11 (Net Debt 8.20b / EBITDA 3.88b)
Debt / FCF = 5.25 (Net Debt 8.20b / FCF TTM 1.56b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.26% (Net Income 2.48b / Total Assets 16.28b)
RoE = -204.7% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.48b / Total Stockholder Equity -1.21b)
RoCE = 71.98% (EBIT 3.38b / Capital Employed (Equity -1.21b + L.T.Debt 5.92b))
RoIC = 58.92% (NOPAT 2.66b / Invested Capital 4.51b)
WACC = 6.08% (E(86.04b)/V(94.44b) * Re(6.62%) + D(8.40b)/V(94.44b) * Rd(0.71%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.12% ; FCFE base≈1.72b ; Y1≈1.59b ; Y5≈1.45b
Fair Price DCF = 30.87 (DCF Value 26.06b / Shares Outstanding 844.1m; 5y FCF grow -9.30% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 80.08 | EPS CAGR: 14.59% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 90.65 | Revenue CAGR: 10.00% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.71 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=14
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.31 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.8%
Additional Sources for ORLY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle