ORLY Stock Analysis: O’Reilly Automotive | NASDAQ

Auto Parts, Tools, Accessories, Maintenance

Total Rating 47

Safety 40

Buy Signal -0.74

Auto Parts
Industry Rotation: +3.7

Market Cap: 73.7B
Avg Turnover: 539M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility21.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.87%

VaR vs Median7.86%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.48

Rel. Str. IBD15.6

Rel. Str. Peer Group44.1

Character TTM

Beta0.127

Beta Downside0.072

Hurst Exponent0.448

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD23.27%

CAGR/Max DD0.58

CAGR/Mean DD2.00

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 5.34%
EPS Trend: 91.7%

Last SUE: 0.47
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.28%
Rev. Trend: 99.3%

Last SUE: 0.57
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Choppy

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -2.4% 5

Feb +2.5% 10

Mar +0.7% 30

Apr -4.2% 8

May -3.1% 33

Jun -0.1% 5

Jul +4.8% 32

Aug -1.8% 31

Sep -0.2% 16

Oct -1.7% 15

Nov +3.4% 63

Dec -2.3% 18

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ORLY O’Reilly Automotive

OReilly Automotive (ORLY) is a leading specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, and accessories, operating stores across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional service installers-a dual-customer model typical of full-line auto parts retailers that diversifies revenue across retail and commercial demand.

Its merchandise mix spans new and remanufactured hard parts (alternators, batteries, brakes, engine and driveline components, starters, etc.) and consumable maintenance items (filters, fluids, oil, wipers, lighting, appearance products), alongside accessories, body paint supplies, and shop tools/equipment. OReilly complements product sales with in-store services such as battery, wiper, and bulb installation, diagnostic and check-engine code testing, used oil and battery recycling, a loaner tool program, drum and rotor resurfacing, custom hydraulic hose fabrication, and professional paint-shop mixing.

Products are marketed under a portfolio of proprietary brands, including OReilly Auto Parts, BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima. Founded

Headlines to Watch Out For

DIY and professional demand lift comparable store sales growth
Tariff exposure pressures margins on imported aftermarket parts
Aggressive buyback program boosts earnings per share growth

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5

Net Income: 2.65b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.20 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -12.79% < 20% (prev -14.05%; Δ 1.26% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 3.29b > Net Income 2.65b
Net Debt (11.9b) to EBITDA (4.17b): 2.85 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (828.9m) vs 12m ago -3.77% < -2%
Gross Margin: 51.64% > 18% (prev 51.40%; Δ 0.24% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 111.9% > 50% (prev 108.2%; Δ 3.62% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.37 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.63b / Interest Expense TTM 252.8m)

Altman Z'' -0.17

A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 7.20b - Total Current Liabilities 9.57b) / Total Assets 17.4b
B: -0.20 (Retained Earnings -3.42b / Total Assets 17.4b)
C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 3.63b / Avg Total Assets 16.6b)
D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -1.84b / Total Liabilities 19.2b)
Altman-Z'' = -0.17 = B

Beneish M -2.05

DSRI: 0.76 (Receivables 457.8m/552.1m, Revenue 18.6b/17.1b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 51.40% / 51.64%)
AQI: 2.89 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 18.6b / 17.1b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 2.65b - CFO 3.29b) / TA 17.4b)
Beneish M = -2.05 (Cap -4..+1) = BB

What is the price of ORLY shares?

As of August 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 90.76 with a total of 4,472,169 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.96%, over one month by +7.37%, over three months by -1.07% and over the past year by -10.48%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 87.40 (which is 3.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is ORLY a buy, sell or hold?

O’Reilly Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.14. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ORLY.

StrongBuy: 14
Buy: 6
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the ORLY price?

Analysts Target Price	108.2	19.2%

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 73.7b (73.7b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 28.9048
P/E Forward = 28.0899
P/S = 3.9658
P/B = 206.1799
P/EG = 1.9314
Revenue TTM = 18.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.63b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.01b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 452.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.57b
Net Debt = 11.9b USD (calculated: Debt 12.2b - CCE 262.2m)
Enterprise Value = 85.6b USD (73.7b + Debt 12.2b - CCE 262.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.37 (Ebit TTM 3.63b / Interest Expense TTM 252.8m)
EV/FCF = 39.68x (Enterprise Value 85.6b / FCF TTM 2.16b)
FCF Yield = 2.52% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Enterprise Value 85.6b)
FCF Margin = 11.61% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Revenue TTM 18.6b)
Net Margin = 14.27% (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Revenue TTM 18.6b)
Gross Margin = 51.64% ((Revenue TTM 18.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.45% (prev 51.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.92 (Enterprise Value 85.6b / Total Assets 17.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.08% (Interest Expense 252.8m / Debt 12.2b)
Taxrate = 22.01% (748.2m / 3.40b)
NOPAT = 2.83b (EBIT 3.63b * (1 - 22.01%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 7.20b / Total Current Liabilities 9.57b)
Debt / Equity = -6.62 (negative equity) (Debt 12.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.85 (Net Debt 11.9b / EBITDA 4.17b)
Debt / FCF = 5.52 (Net Debt 11.9b / FCF TTM 2.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.96% (Net Income 2.65b / Total Assets 17.4b)
RoE = -232.4% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Total Stockholder Equity -1.14b)
RoCE = 61.83% (EBIT 3.63b / Capital Employed (Equity -1.14b + L.T.Debt 7.01b))
RoIC = 35.39% (NOPAT 2.83b / Invested Capital 8.00b)
WACC = 5.75% (E(73.7b)/V(85.8b) * Re(6.43%) + D(12.2b)/V(85.8b) * Rd(2.08%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -19.89 | Cagr: -1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.00b ; Y1≈2.30b ; Y5≈3.38b
[DCF] Fair Price = 48.14 (EV 50.8b - Net Debt 11.9b = Equity 38.9b / Shares 809.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.67 | EPS CAGR: 5.34% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.34 | Revenue CAGR: 6.28% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.92 | Chg30d=+1.68% | Revisions=+63% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.28 | Chg30d=+0.72% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+10.4% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.65 | Chg30d=+0.88% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+11.3% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65% (up=34, down=6)