ORLY Stock Analysis: O’Reilly Automotive | NASDAQ
Auto Parts | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 69.595m USD | 12M Return: -12.1% | US67103H1077 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 469M
EPS Trend: 91.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
OReilly Automotive is a U.S.-listed retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories, operating across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company sells new and remanufactured hard parts (such as alternators, batteries, brake components, and engine parts), maintenance items (filters, fluids, oil, wipers, antifreeze), accessories, auto body paint, tools, and service equipment. It also offers value-added services including used oil and battery recycling, battery and wiper replacement, diagnostic testing, check engine light code extraction, a loaner tool program, drum and rotor resurfacing, and custom hydraulic hoses. OReilly serves two distinct customer groups: do-it-yourself consumers and professional service providers (mechanics and installers), and it markets products under multiple proprietary brands such as OReilly Auto Parts, BrakeBest, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, and Import Direct. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
The automotive aftermarket parts retail sector is distinct from original equipment manufacturing, as it serves the replacement and maintenance needs of vehicles already in use, with industry players typically employing a dual-channel model that supplies both retail DIY customers and professional installers. OReilly trades on NASDAQ under the ticker ORLY and is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector, Automotive Retail sub-industry.
- Aging US vehicle fleet sustains aftermarket parts demand growth
- Professional service provider segment expansion lifts margins
- New store openings accelerate across US and Mexico markets
| Net Income: 2.65b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.79% < 20% (prev -14.05%; Δ 1.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 3.29b > Net Income 2.65b |
| Net Debt (11.9b) to EBITDA (4.17b): 2.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (828.9m) vs 12m ago -3.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.64% > 18% (prev 51.40%; Δ 0.24% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 111.9% > 50% (prev 108.2%; Δ 3.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.64b / Interest Expense TTM 252.8m) |
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 7.20b - Total Current Liabilities 9.57b) / Total Assets 17.4b |
| B: -0.20 (Retained Earnings -3.42b / Total Assets 17.4b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 3.64b / Avg Total Assets 16.6b) |
| D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -1.84b / Total Liabilities 19.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.17 = B |
| DSRI: 0.76 (Receivables 457.8m/552.1m, Revenue 18.6b/17.1b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 51.40% / 51.64%) |
| AQI: 2.89 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 18.6b / 17.1b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 2.65b - CFO 3.29b) / TA 17.4b) |
| Beneish M = -2.05 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 89.27 with a total of 5,892,545 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.26%, over one month by +5.16%, over three months by +3.74% and over the past year by -12.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 86.20 (which is 3.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
O’Reilly Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.41. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ORLY.
- StrongBuy: 18
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 107.4 | 20.3% |
P/E Trailing = 27.3111
P/E Forward = 23.4192
P/S = 3.7472
P/B = 206.1799
P/EG = 1.6087
Revenue TTM = 18.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.64b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.01b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 452.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.57b
Net Debt = 11.9b USD (calculated: Debt 12.2b - CCE 262.2m)
Enterprise Value = 81.5b USD (69.6b + Debt 12.2b - CCE 262.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.39 (Ebit TTM 3.64b / Interest Expense TTM 252.8m)
EV/FCF = 37.79x (Enterprise Value 81.5b / FCF TTM 2.16b)
FCF Yield = 2.65% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Enterprise Value 81.5b)
FCF Margin = 11.61% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Revenue TTM 18.6b)
Net Margin = 14.27% (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Revenue TTM 18.6b)
Gross Margin = 51.64% ((Revenue TTM 18.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.45% (prev 51.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.69 (Enterprise Value 81.5b / Total Assets 17.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.08% (Interest Expense 252.8m / Debt 12.2b)
Taxrate = 22.01% (748.2m / 3.40b)
NOPAT = 2.84b (EBIT 3.64b * (1 - 22.01%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 7.20b / Total Current Liabilities 9.57b)
Debt / Equity = -6.62 (negative equity) (Debt 12.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.85 (Net Debt 11.9b / EBITDA 4.17b)
Debt / FCF = 5.52 (Net Debt 11.9b / FCF TTM 2.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.96% (Net Income 2.65b / Total Assets 17.4b)
RoE = -232.4% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Total Stockholder Equity -1.14b)
RoCE = 61.90% (EBIT 3.64b / Capital Employed (Equity -1.14b + L.T.Debt 7.01b))
RoIC = 35.43% (NOPAT 2.84b / Invested Capital 8.00b)
WACC = 5.71% (E(69.6b)/V(81.8b) * Re(6.42%) + D(12.2b)/V(81.8b) * Rd(2.08%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -19.89 | Cagr: -1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.00b ; Y1≈2.30b ; Y5≈3.38b
[DCF] Fair Price = 48.14 (EV 50.8b - Net Debt 11.9b = Equity 38.9b / Shares 809.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.67 | EPS CAGR: 5.34% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.34 | Revenue CAGR: 6.28% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.28 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.65 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+11.2% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)