(OTLY) Oatly - Ratings and Ratios
Oatmilk, Yogurt, Frozen, Cream, Spreads
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 64.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 90.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.22% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 |
| Alpha | -22.45 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.40 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.459 |
| Beta | 0.887 |
| Beta Downside | 0.758 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.56% |
| Mean DD | 60.34% |
| Median DD | 67.02% |
Description: OTLY Oatly December 29, 2025
Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) is a Swedish-based oat-milk producer that markets a broad plant-based dairy portfolio-including original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate, unsweetened, “Super Basic,” Barista-edition, oat-based yogurts (Oatgurts), frozen desserts, cooking creams, crème fraîche, whipping cream, custard, flavored spreads, and ready-to-go drinks-across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, APAC, Latin America, the U.S., Canada, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, primarily via retail and e-commerce channels. The firm, founded in 1994 as Havre Global AB and rebranded to Oatly Group AB in March 2021, operates under the GICS sub-industry “Packaged Foods & Meats.”
Key recent metrics: Q3 2024 reported net revenue of $285 million, a 22 % YoY increase driven by strong demand in North America and expanding shelf-space in Europe; gross margin improved to 38 % as the company leveraged higher-capacity oat-processing facilities to dilute fixed costs; and the company’s cash conversion cycle shortened to 45 days, reflecting better inventory management and faster e-commerce fulfillment. Primary economic drivers include rising consumer preference for plant-based alternatives, volatile dairy commodity prices that make oat-milk relatively cost-competitive, and regulatory incentives for lower-carbon food products in the EU and U.S.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of Oatly’s valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-224.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 50.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 11.05pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -41.76% (prev -25.07%; Δ -16.68pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -27.6m > Net Income -224.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 0.42 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (30.1m) change vs 12m ago 0.54% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 30.60% (prev 27.37%; Δ 3.22pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 99.15% (prev 88.49%; Δ 10.67pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.23 (EBITDA TTM -89.8m / Interest Expense TTM 61.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -12.01
| (A) -0.45 = (Total Current Assets 258.4m - Total Current Liabilities 610.4m) / Total Assets 779.6m |
| (B) -1.76 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.37b / Total Assets 779.6m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.76 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.16 = EBIT TTM -137.5m / Avg Total Assets 850.2m |
| (D) -2.12 = Book Value of Equity -1.61b / Total Liabilities 759.7m |
| Total Rating: -12.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 26.53
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -6.32% |
| 3. FCF Margin -6.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 29.30 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -5.44 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -31.09)% |
| 7. RoE -265.1% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 89.36% |
| 9. EPS Trend -53.35% |
What is the price of OTLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.63%, over one month by -6.33%, over three months by -33.53% and over the past year by -11.36%.
Is OTLY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OTLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.8 | 76.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.8 | 76.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.4 | -25.1% |
OTLY Fundamental Data Overview December 26, 2025
P/S = 0.4116
P/B = 18.5637
Beta = 1.961
Revenue TTM = 843.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -137.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -89.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 116.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 404.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 547.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 488.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 835.6m USD (346.9m + Debt 547.6m - CCE 58.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.23 (Ebit TTM -137.5m / Interest Expense TTM 61.8m)
FCF Yield = -6.32% (FCF TTM -52.8m / Enterprise Value 835.6m)
FCF Margin = -6.26% (FCF TTM -52.8m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Net Margin = -26.67% (Net Income TTM -224.9m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Gross Margin = 30.60% ((Revenue TTM 843.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 585.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.78% (prev 32.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 835.6m / Total Assets 779.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 16.2m / Debt 547.6m)
Taxrate = -1.43% (negative due to tax credits) (923.0k / -64.5m)
NOPAT = -139.5m (EBIT -137.5m * (1 - -1.43%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.42 (Total Current Assets 258.4m / Total Current Liabilities 610.4m)
Debt / Equity = 29.30 (Debt 547.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.44 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 488.7m / EBITDA -89.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 488.7m / FCF TTM -52.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 84.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -28.84% (Net Income -224.9m / Total Assets 779.6m)
RoE = -265.1% (Net Income TTM -224.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 84.8m)
RoCE = -68.36% (EBIT -137.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 84.8m + L.T.Debt 116.3m))
RoIC = -25.65% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -139.5m / Invested Capital 543.8m)
WACC = 5.44% (E(346.9m)/V(894.5m) * Re(9.28%) + D(547.6m)/V(894.5m) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(-0.01)))
Discount Rate = 9.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.55%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -52.8m)
EPS Correlation: -53.35 | EPS CAGR: -74.34% | SUE: -3.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.36 | Revenue CAGR: 8.13% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.80 | Chg30d=-0.350 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.30 | Chg30d=-0.533 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+43.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%
Additional Sources for OTLY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle