PAYX Stock Analysis: Paychex | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 41.550m USD | 12M Return: -7.9% | US7043261079 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 286M
EPS Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is a leading provider of integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions, serving small and medium-sized businesses across the United States, Europe, and India. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, the company has been publicly traded since its 1990 IPO. Paychex is classified within the GICS Human Resource & Employment Services sub-industry under the broader Industrials sector, despite the technology-enabled nature of many of its offerings.
Its service portfolio spans payroll processing, payroll tax administration, employee benefits administration, retirement plan administration, HR support, talent management, workforce management, and a growing suite of financial wellness and earned-wage access products. Paychex also operates an insurance brokerage offering property, casualty, workers compensation, and health and benefits coverage to its SMB client base.
Distribution is carried out primarily through a direct sales force, a model well-suited to the relationship-driven, high-touch needs of smaller employers. The SMB focus differentiates Paychex from enterprise HCM competitors and aligns it with a large, fragmented customer pool that often lacks in-house HR and payroll infrastructure.
- Interest income on client funds declines as Fed cuts rates
- Paycor acquisition expands HCM software and PEO segment revenue
- SMB hiring and wage growth drive payroll processing volume gains
| Net Income: 1.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.22% < 20% (prev 35.18%; Δ -7.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 2.56b > Net Income 1.76b |
| Net Debt (3.51b) to EBITDA (3.02b): 1.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (358.2m) vs 12m ago -1.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.29% > 18% (prev 72.35%; Δ 1.93% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.78% > 50% (prev 33.64%; Δ 6.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.58b / Interest Expense TTM 269.5m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 8.61b - Total Current Liabilities 6.84b) / Total Assets 16.2b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 1.81b / Total Assets 16.2b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 2.58b / Avg Total Assets 16.4b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 3.74b / Total Liabilities 12.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.46 = A |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 2.21b/1.98b, Revenue 6.51b/5.57b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 72.35% / 74.29%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.43 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 6.51b / 5.57b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.76b - CFO 2.56b) / TA 16.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 115.01 with a total of 2,902,015 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.95%, over one month by -7.61%, over three months by +21.14% and over the past year by -7.92%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 111.50 (which is 3.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Paychex has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.83. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PAYX.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 119.3 | 3.7% |
P/E Trailing = 24.2158
P/E Forward = 19.802
P/S = 6.3805
P/B = 11.2757
P/EG = 2.0826
Revenue TTM = 6.51b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.56b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 22.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.68b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 52.2m
Net Debt = 3.51b USD (calculated: Debt 4.68b - CCE 1.18b)
Enterprise Value = 45.1b USD (41.6b + Debt 4.68b - CCE 1.18b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.56 (Ebit TTM 2.58b / Interest Expense TTM 269.5m)
EV/FCF = 19.41x (Enterprise Value 45.1b / FCF TTM 2.32b)
FCF Yield = 5.15% (FCF TTM 2.32b / Enterprise Value 45.1b)
FCF Margin = 35.65% (FCF TTM 2.32b / Revenue TTM 6.51b)
Net Margin = 27.03% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Revenue TTM 6.51b)
Gross Margin = 74.29% ((Revenue TTM 6.51b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.01% (prev 76.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.79 (Enterprise Value 45.1b / Total Assets 16.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.76% (Interest Expense 269.5m / Debt 4.68b)
Taxrate = 23.83% (550.8m / 2.31b)
NOPAT = 1.96b (EBIT 2.58b * (1 - 23.83%))
Current Ratio = 1.26 (Total Current Assets 8.61b / Total Current Liabilities 6.84b)
Debt / Equity = 1.25 (Debt 4.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.16 (Net Debt 3.51b / EBITDA 3.02b)
Debt / FCF = 1.51 (Net Debt 3.51b / FCF TTM 2.32b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.75% (Net Income 1.76b / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = 45.13% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.90b)
RoCE = 30.47% (EBIT 2.58b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.90b + L.T.Debt 4.56b))
RoIC = 21.73% (NOPAT 1.96b / Invested Capital 9.03b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(41.6b)/V(46.2b) * Re(6.13%) + D(4.68b)/V(46.2b) * Rd(5.76%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -66.11 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.10b ; Y1≈2.41b ; Y5≈3.55b
[DCF] Fair Price = 140.0 (EV 53.3b - Net Debt 3.51b = Equity 49.8b / Shares 356.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.97 | EPS CAGR: 7.99% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.20 | Revenue CAGR: 9.08% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-08-31): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2027-05-31): EPS=5.98 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
EPS next Year (2028-05-31): EPS=6.39 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.9% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=2, down=10)