(PCAR) PACCAR - Ratings and Ratios
Trucks, Parts, Financing, Leasing, Winches
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.09 |
| Alpha | -14.28 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.326 |
| Beta | 0.833 |
| Beta Downside | 0.752 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.75% |
| Mean DD | 10.18% |
| Median DD | 8.53% |
Description: PCAR PACCAR September 26, 2025
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks across North America, Europe, South America, Australia, and other international markets. The business is organized into three operating segments: Truck (Kenworth, Peterbilt, DAF), Parts (aftermarket components), and Financial Services (PacLease leasing and financing).
The Truck segment accounts for roughly 80% of total revenue, with FY2023 sales of about $22 billion, driven primarily by freight-transport demand and a rebound in over-the-road trucking volumes after the pandemic slowdown. A key sector driver is the ongoing shortage of qualified drivers, which sustains demand for higher-specification, fuel-efficient trucks.
The Parts segment contributes roughly 10% of revenue and benefits from the high-margin, recurring nature of aftermarket sales; its operating profit margin typically exceeds 20% because parts are sold at a premium to original equipment manufacturers.
Financial Services, the remaining ~10% of revenue, generates earnings that are highly sensitive to interest-rate environments; rising rates in 2024 have compressed lease spreads, but the segment’s diversified loan portfolio and strong dealer financing relationships provide a cushion against credit-cycle volatility.
Additional context: PACCAR’s FY2023 operating margin stood at 13.2%, and its free cash flow conversion was 85%, reflecting robust cash generation that funds both R&D for electric-driven trucks and share-repurchase programs.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial models and scenario analysis you may find useful.
PCAR Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 49,448m |
| Sub-Industry | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 1986-07-09 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -17.5% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.43 of 5 |
PCAR Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.19% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.68% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 20.47% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.8% |
PCAR Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 19.36% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.70 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.90 |
| Current Volume | 5639k |
| Average Volume | 2869.6k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (2.69b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.67b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 31.04% (prev 63.92%; Δ -32.87pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.72b > Net Income 2.69b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (9.55b) to EBITDA (4.14b) ratio: 2.30 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.42 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (526.8m) change vs 12m ago 0.06% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 15.39% (prev 19.38%; Δ -4.00pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 63.73% (prev 80.50%; Δ -16.77pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.52 (EBITDA TTM 4.14b / Interest Expense TTM 411.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.97
| (A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 14.73b - Total Current Liabilities 6.07b) / Total Assets 44.20b |
| (B) 0.43 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.05b / Total Assets 44.20b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 3.10b / Avg Total Assets 43.74b |
| (D) 0.77 = Book Value of Equity 19.01b / Total Liabilities 24.83b |
| Total Rating: 3.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 55.69
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.70% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.46% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.82 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.30 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.84)% |
| 7. RoE 14.58% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -66.29% |
| 9. EPS Trend -72.88% |
What is the price of PCAR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.39%, over one month by +3.98%, over three months by +2.81% and over the past year by -7.88%.
Is PCAR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PCAR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 107 | 3.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 107 | 3.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 121.3 | 17.8% |
PCAR Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
P/E Trailing = 18.4608
P/E Forward = 15.0376
P/S = 1.6744
P/B = 2.592
P/EG = 12.3703
Beta = 1.023
Revenue TTM = 27.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.10b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.55b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.05b USD (49.45b + Debt 15.85b - CCE 9.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.52 (Ebit TTM 3.10b / Interest Expense TTM 411.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.70% (FCF TTM 3.19b / Enterprise Value 56.05b)
FCF Margin = 11.46% (FCF TTM 3.19b / Revenue TTM 27.88b)
Net Margin = 9.65% (Net Income TTM 2.69b / Revenue TTM 27.88b)
Gross Margin = 15.39% ((Revenue TTM 27.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.57% (prev 15.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.27 (Enterprise Value 56.05b / Total Assets 44.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.20% (Interest Expense 31.8m / Debt 15.85b)
Taxrate = -414.8% (out of range, set to none) (-475.4m / 114.6m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 2.42 (Total Current Assets 14.73b / Total Current Liabilities 6.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.82 (Debt 15.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.30 (Net Debt 9.55b / EBITDA 4.14b)
Debt / FCF = 2.99 (Net Debt 9.55b / FCF TTM 3.19b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.09% (Net Income 2.69b / Total Assets 44.20b)
RoE = 14.58% (Net Income TTM 2.69b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.46b)
RoCE = 10.59% (EBIT 3.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.46b + L.T.Debt 10.77b))
RoIC = 10.72% (EBIT 3.10b / (Assets 44.20b - Curr.Liab 6.07b - Cash 9.25b))
WACC = 6.88% (E(49.45b)/V(65.30b) * Re(9.09%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.12% ; FCFE base≈3.03b ; Y1≈3.73b ; Y5≈6.37b
Fair Price DCF = 170.0 (DCF Value 89.28b / Shares Outstanding 525.2m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -72.88 | EPS CAGR: -15.16% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -66.29 | Revenue CAGR: -16.04% | SUE: -2.18 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for PCAR Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle