PDD Stock Analysis: PDD Holdings | NASDAQ
Internet Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 117.316m USD | 12M Return: -37% | US7223041028 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 436M
EPS Trend: 42.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 89.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates Pinduoduo, a China-based online marketplace offering a wide range of product categories with interactive shopping features, and Temu, a cross-border online platform that connects consumers directly with manufacturers and merchants. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Broadline Retail sub-industry, which includes businesses that sell diverse product assortments across multiple categories through a single retail platform. Originally incorporated in 2015 as Pinduoduo Inc., the company rebranded to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. PDD went public on NASDAQ in July 2018 and is classified as a large-cap stock.
- Temus global expansion drives international revenue acceleration
- China domestic GMV pressured by intensifying competition with Alibaba and JD
- Cross-border logistics costs compress transaction margin guidance
- Regulatory scrutiny on low-cost imports threatens Temus U.S. growth
| Net Income: 93.3b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 76.62% < 20% (prev 66.91%; Δ 9.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 112b > Net Income 93.3b |
| Net Debt (-452b) to EBITDA (126b): -3.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.47b) vs 12m ago -0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.32% > 18% (prev 57.45%; Δ -1.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 72.99% > 50% (prev 72.22%; Δ 0.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.03 > 6 (EBIT TTM 123b / Interest Expense TTM 6.80b) |
| A: 0.52 (Total Current Assets 557b - Total Current Liabilities 213b) / Total Assets 663b |
| B: 0.49 (Retained Earnings 324b / Total Assets 663b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 123b / Avg Total Assets 615b) |
| D: 2.08 (Book Value of Equity 448b / Total Liabilities 216b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.51 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 6.08b/6.01b, Revenue 449b/410b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 57.45% / 56.32%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 449b / 410b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 93.3b - CFO 112b) / TA 663b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 80.97 with a total of 4,557,250 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.47%, over one month by +4.17%, over three months by -3.77% and over the past year by -36.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 78.70 (which is 2.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
PDD Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PDD.
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 114.8 | 41.8% |
Market Cap CNY = 784b (117b USD * 6.6861 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 9.2192
P/E Forward = 6.2344
P/S = 0.2603
P/B = 1.6856
P/EG = 0.6926
Revenue TTM = 449b CNY
EBIT TTM = 123b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 126b CNY
Long Term Debt = 2.39b CNY (estimated: total debt 4.84b - short term 2.46b)
Short Term Debt = 2.46b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.84b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 4.84b already included)
Net Debt = -452b CNY (calculated: Debt 4.84b - CCE 456b)
Enterprise Value = 333b CNY (784b + Debt 4.84b - CCE 456b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.03 (Ebit TTM 123b / Interest Expense TTM 6.80b)
EV/FCF = 2.97x (Enterprise Value 333b / FCF TTM 112b)
FCF Yield = 33.62% (FCF TTM 112b / Enterprise Value 333b)
FCF Margin = 24.92% (FCF TTM 112b / Revenue TTM 449b)
Net Margin = 20.77% (Net Income TTM 93.3b / Revenue TTM 449b)
Gross Margin = 56.32% ((Revenue TTM 449b - Cost of Revenue TTM 196b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.26% (prev 55.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.50 (Enterprise Value 333b / Total Assets 663b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 140.5% (Interest Expense 6.80b / Debt 4.84b)
Taxrate = 19.43% (22.5b / 116b)
NOPAT = 98.9b (EBIT 123b * (1 - 19.43%))
Current Ratio = 2.62 (Total Current Assets 557b / Total Current Liabilities 213b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 4.84b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 448b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.59 (Net Debt -452b / EBITDA 126b)
Debt / FCF = -4.04 (Net Debt -452b / FCF TTM 112b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 419b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.16% (Net Income 93.3b / Total Assets 663b)
RoE = 22.25% (Net Income TTM 93.3b / Total Stockholder Equity 419b)
RoCE = 29.12% (EBIT 123b / Capital Employed (Equity 419b + L.T.Debt 2.39b))
RoIC = 22.96% (NOPAT 98.9b / Invested Capital 431b)
WACC = 9.20% (E(784b)/V(789b) * Re(9.26%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.24 | Cagr: 10.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.26% ; FCFF base≈105b ; Y1≈120b ; Y5≈177b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.94k (EV 2314b - Net Debt -452b = Equity 2765b / Shares 1.42b; r=9.20% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 42.02 | EPS CAGR: 12.12% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.68 | Revenue CAGR: 29.09% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=18.84 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=68.57 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-4% | GrowthEPS=-5.3% | GrowthRev=+7.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=82.58 | Chg30d=-0.84% | Revisions=-7% | GrowthEPS=+20.4% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=30, down=30)