PDD Stock Analysis: PDD Holdings | NASDAQ
Internet Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 117.274m USD | 12M Return: -18.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 632M
EPS Trend: 76.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of e-commerce businesses, most notably the Pinduoduo platform-offering a wide range of product categories with interactive shopping experiences-and Temu, an online marketplace that helps merchants streamline manufacturing and commercial operations. The company was incorporated in 2015 in Dublin, Ireland, originally as Pinduoduo Inc., before rebranding to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023.
The company operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Broadline Retail sub-industry, competing in the global online retail landscape. Pinduoduo is recognized for its social commerce and group-buying model, which leverages consumer networks to drive volume-based pricing, while Temu represents its expansion into cross-border e-commerce, connecting international consumers directly with manufacturers and merchants.
- Temu global expansion fuels revenue growth but pressures margins
- China consumer weakness slows Pinduoduo GMV growth
- US tariff changes threaten Temus cross-border model
| Net Income: 96.8b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 73.56% < 20% (prev 62.27%; Δ 11.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 116b > Net Income 96.8b |
| Net Debt (-505b) to EBITDA (102b): -4.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.48b) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.98% > 18% (prev 59.73%; Δ -3.75% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 75.49% > 50% (prev 75.91%; Δ -0.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.51 (Total Current Assets 535b - Total Current Liabilities 211b) / Total Assets 635b |
| B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 296b / Total Assets 635b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 99.2b / Avg Total Assets 583b) |
| D: 1.98 (Book Value of Equity 422b / Total Liabilities 213b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.08 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 15.5b/12.9b, Revenue 440b/403b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 59.73% / 55.98%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 440b / 403b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 96.8b - CFO 116b) / TA 635b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 85.13 with a total of 4,291,394 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.33%, over one month by +4.05%, over three months by -15.01% and over the past year by -18.90%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 81.90 (which is 3.8% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
PDD Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.14. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PDD.
- StrongBuy: 18
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 116 | 36.3% |
Market Cap CNY = 797b (117b USD * 6.7929 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 8.6818
P/E Forward = 7.9554
P/S = 0.2651
P/B = 1.8858
P/EG = 0.765
Revenue TTM = 440b CNY
EBIT TTM = 99.2b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 102b CNY
Long Term Debt = 2.61b CNY (estimated: total debt 5.10b - short term 2.49b)
Short Term Debt = 2.49b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.10b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.12b already included)
Net Debt = -505b CNY (calculated: Debt 5.10b - CCE 510b)
Enterprise Value = 291b CNY (797b + Debt 5.10b - CCE 510b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 99.2b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 2.52x (Enterprise Value 291b / FCF TTM 116b)
FCF Yield = 39.66% (FCF TTM 116b / Enterprise Value 291b)
FCF Margin = 26.26% (FCF TTM 116b / Revenue TTM 440b)
Net Margin = 21.99% (Net Income TTM 96.8b / Revenue TTM 440b)
Gross Margin = 55.98% ((Revenue TTM 440b - Cost of Revenue TTM 194b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.86% (prev 55.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 291b / Total Assets 635b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.10b)
Taxrate = 17.96% (21.2b / 118b)
NOPAT = 81.4b (EBIT 99.2b * (1 - 17.96%))
Current Ratio = 2.54 (Total Current Assets 535b / Total Current Liabilities 211b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 5.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 422b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.95 (Net Debt -505b / EBITDA 102b)
Debt / FCF = -4.37 (Net Debt -505b / FCF TTM 116b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 398b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.60% (Net Income 96.8b / Total Assets 635b)
RoE = 24.34% (Net Income TTM 96.8b / Total Stockholder Equity 398b)
RoCE = 24.78% (EBIT 99.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 398b + L.T.Debt 2.61b))
RoIC = 20.09% (NOPAT 81.4b / Invested Capital 405b)
WACC = 9.58% (E(797b)/V(802b) * Re(9.64%) + D(5.10b)/V(802b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 60.0 | Cagr: 10.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.14% ; FCFF base≈116b ; Y1≈116b ; Y5≈121b
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.45k (EV 1560b - Net Debt -505b = Equity 2065b / Shares 1.42b; r=9.58% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -0.72% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 76.23 | EPS CAGR: 28.89% | SUE: -1.09 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 91.27 | Revenue CAGR: 39.27% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=18.35 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=-73% | Analysts=13
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=18.58 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=68.23 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=-90% | GrowthEPS=-5.7% | GrowthRev=+11.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=83.55 | Chg30d=-3.02% | Revisions=-90% | GrowthEPS=+22.5% | GrowthRev=+11.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -93% (up=1, down=67)