PEGA Stock Analysis: Pegasystems | NASDAQ

Decision Engine, Customer Service, Workflow Automation, Cloud Services

Total Rating 47

Safety 78

Buy Signal -0.61

Software - Application
Industry Rotation: -9.2

Market Cap: 5.66B
Avg Turnover: 70.1M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility43.7%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.98%

VaR vs Median-2.45%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.71

Rel. Str. IBD14.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group20.1

Character TTM

Beta1.013

Beta Downside1.303

Hurst Exponent0.494

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD60.91%

CAGR/Max DD0.30

CAGR/Mean DD1.00

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 5.35%
EPS Trend: 17.9%

Last SUE: -0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 10.05%
Rev. Trend: 95.4%

Last SUE: -0.17
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +3.8% 5

Feb +2.0% 15

Mar -1.6% 30

Apr +0.2% 14

May -1.2% 8

Jun +0.8% 10

Jul +0.9% 28

Aug -1.4% 8

Sep -3.1% 43

Oct -0.2% 0

Nov +3.7% 28

Dec -3.9% 25

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: PEGA Pegasystems

Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ: PEGA) is a U.S.-based enterprise software company founded in 1983 and headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. The company develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports software globally, with operations spanning the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Its flagship offering is Pega Infinity, a portfolio that includes Pega Customer Decision Hub (an AI-powered real-time decision engine), Pega Customer Service, and the Pega Platform for AI-driven workflow automation.

The company also provides complementary solutions such as the Situational Layer Cake, Pega GenAI Blueprint, Pega Cloud, Pega Catalyst, and Pega Academy, along with global service assurance and client support. Pegasystems primarily sells to organizations in financial services, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing, high tech, and consumer industries, using a direct sales force supplemented by partnerships with technology providers and application developers.

As an Application Software company within the Information Technology sector, Pegasystems operates in the enterprise software market, which typically relies on a combination of recurring subscription, licensing, and cloud-based revenue models. It has been publicly traded since its 1996 IPO and is currently classified as a mid-cap stock.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Pega Cloud subscription growth accelerates recurring revenue mix
GenAI Blueprint adoption fuels competitive positioning against Salesforce and ServiceNow
Enterprise IT budget tightening pressures perpetual license bookings

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0

Net Income: 324.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.36 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.63 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 2.44% < 20% (prev 14.68%; Δ -12.23% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.37 > 3% & CFO 513.0m > Net Income 324.0m
Net Debt (-232.9m) to EBITDA (196.9m): -1.18 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (175.3m) vs 12m ago -3.77% < -2%
Gross Margin: 75.57% > 18% (prev 75.47%; Δ 0.10% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 128.2% > 50% (prev 126.5%; Δ 1.67% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 421.9 > 6 (EBIT TTM 183.1m / Interest Expense TTM 434k)

Altman Z'' 3.00

A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 761.7m - Total Current Liabilities 719.3m) / Total Assets 1.38b
B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 499.5m / Total Assets 1.38b)
C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 183.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.35b)
D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 560.4m / Total Liabilities 823.7m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.00 = A

Beneish M -2.89

DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 375.2m/385.1m, Revenue 1.74b/1.68b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 75.47% / 75.57%)
AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.28)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.74b / 1.68b)
TATA: -0.14 (NI 324.0m - CFO 513.0m) / TA 1.38b)
Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of PEGA shares?

As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.60 with a total of 1,619,657 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.04%, over one month by -3.26%, over three months by +11.00% and over the past year by -37.55%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 32.60 (which is 5.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is PEGA a buy, sell or hold?

Pegasystems has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PEGA.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 2
Hold: 6
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the PEGA price?

Analysts Target Price	40	15.6%

Pegasystems (PEGA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 5.66b (5.66b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 18.9176
P/E Forward = 13.4228
P/S = 3.26
P/B = 10.3211
P/EG = 2.9891
Revenue TTM = 1.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 183.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 196.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 42.0m USD (estimated: total debt 57.0m - short term 15.0m)
Short Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 129.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 72.0m
Net Debt = -232.9m USD (calculated: Debt 129.0m - CCE 361.9m)
Enterprise Value = 5.43b USD (5.66b + Debt 129.0m - CCE 361.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 421.9 (Ebit TTM 183.1m / Interest Expense TTM 434k)
EV/FCF = 10.80x (Enterprise Value 5.43b / FCF TTM 502.5m)
FCF Yield = 9.26% (FCF TTM 502.5m / Enterprise Value 5.43b)
FCF Margin = 28.94% (FCF TTM 502.5m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = 18.66% (Net Income TTM 324.0m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 75.57% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 424.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.32% (prev 75.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.92 (Enterprise Value 5.43b / Total Assets 1.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.34% (Interest Expense 434k / Debt 129.0m)
Taxrate = 27.97% (5.18m / 18.5m)
NOPAT = 131.9m (EBIT 183.1m * (1 - 27.97%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 761.7m / Total Current Liabilities 719.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 129.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 560.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.18 (Net Debt -232.9m / EBITDA 196.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.46 (Net Debt -232.9m / FCF TTM 502.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 662.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.93% (Net Income 324.0m / Total Assets 1.38b)
RoE = 48.90% (Net Income TTM 324.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 662.6m)
RoCE = 25.99% (EBIT 183.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 662.6m + L.T.Debt 42.0m))
RoIC = 22.24% (NOPAT 131.9m / Invested Capital 593.0m)
WACC = 9.33% (E(5.66b)/V(5.79b) * Re(9.54%) + D(129.0m)/V(5.79b) * Rd(0.34%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 9.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 27.55 | Cagr: 1.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.85% ; FCFF base≈464.0m ; Y1≈531.9m ; Y5≈782.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 62.50 (EV 10.0b - Net Debt -232.9m = Equity 10.3b / Shares 164.4m; r=9.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 17.87 | EPS CAGR: 5.35% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.42 | Revenue CAGR: 10.05% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+0.99% | Revisions=-64% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.43 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=-64% | GrowthEPS=+15.9% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.61 | Chg30d=-1.22% | Revisions=-79% | GrowthEPS=+7.3% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -81% (up=2, down=31)