PGY Stock Analysis: Pagaya Technologies | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.799m USD | 12M Return: -27.2% | IL0011858912 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 55.0M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: PGY) is a product-focused technology company that applies artificial intelligence and proprietary data science to financial services, operating primarily in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. Founded in 2016 and headquartered in New York, the company partners with banks, fintech firms, auto finance providers, and residential real estate service providers to support credit decisioning and customer acquisition.
Its product suite centers on lending optimization. Flagship offerings include Decline Monetization (re-routing rejected loan applications through its network), Dual Look and First Look (real-time credit evaluation tools), and FastPass (transaction acceleration). Pagaya also provides customer acquisition tools such as the Affiliate Optimizer Engine and Direct Marketing Engine, which use its data network to help partners source new borrowers through affiliate and direct channels.
Although classified under the GICS Systems Software sub-industry, Pagaya operates within the AI-driven lending technology sector. Its business model relies on partner-embedded distribution, embedding its credit evaluation and acquisition tools into the workflows of institutional lenders rather than originating loans directly to consumers.
- Partner loan volume growth drives network fee revenue
- Consumer credit losses pressure fee income and network profitability
- Equity raises and share dilution fund continued growth investment
| Net Income: 126.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 27.26 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 109.8% < 20% (prev 9.60%; Δ 100.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 264.7m > Net Income 126.8m |
| Net Debt (-349.6m) to EBITDA (121.2m): -2.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (97.2m) vs 12m ago 22.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.64% > 18% (prev 40.84%; Δ -0.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.74% > 50% (prev 80.44%; Δ 5.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.86 (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 138.5m) / Total Assets 1.69b |
| B: -0.47 (Retained Earnings -792.7m / Total Assets 1.69b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 98.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.55b) |
| D: 0.57 (Book Value of Equity 594.2m / Total Liabilities 1.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.14 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 190.5m/127.9m, Revenue 1.33b/1.13b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 40.84% / 40.64%) |
| AQI: 0.03 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.69) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 1.33b / 1.13b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 126.8m - CFO 264.7m) / TA 1.69b) |
| Beneish M = -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.68 with a total of 3,150,783 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.56%, over one month by +24.03%, over three months by +65.75% and over the past year by -27.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.20 (which is 6.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Pagaya Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PGY.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.8 | 32.8% |
P/E Trailing = 15.2908
P/E Forward = 5.872
P/S = 1.294
P/B = 3.0259
P/EG = 0.0422
Revenue TTM = 1.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 98.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 121.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 874.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 32.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 939.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 32.4m
Net Debt = -349.6m USD (calculated: Debt 939.8m - CCE 1.29b)
Enterprise Value = 1.45b USD (1.80b + Debt 939.8m - CCE 1.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 98.7m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 8.68x (Enterprise Value 1.45b / FCF TTM 166.9m)
FCF Yield = 11.52% (FCF TTM 166.9m / Enterprise Value 1.45b)
FCF Margin = 12.59% (FCF TTM 166.9m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 9.57% (Net Income TTM 126.8m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 40.64% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 786.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.18% (prev 40.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 1.45b / Total Assets 1.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 939.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 78.0m (EBIT 98.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 11.18 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 142.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.58 (Debt 939.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 594.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.88 (Net Debt -349.6m / EBITDA 121.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.10 (Net Debt -349.6m / FCF TTM 166.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 518.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.20% (Net Income 126.8m / Total Assets 1.69b)
RoE = 24.48% (Net Income TTM 126.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 518.0m)
RoCE = 7.09% (EBIT 98.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 518.0m + L.T.Debt 874.9m))
RoIC = 5.13% (NOPAT 78.0m / Invested Capital 1.52b)
WACC = 12.49% (E(1.80b)/V(2.74b) * Re(19.02%) + D(939.8m)/V(2.74b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 19.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.68 | Cagr: 20.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.37% ; FCFF base≈166.9m ; Y1≈167.6m ; Y5≈177.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 27.31 (EV 1.62b - Net Debt -349.6m = Equity 1.97b / Shares 72.1m; r=12.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.75 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.39 | Revenue CAGR: 25.01% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+18.24% | Revisions=+70% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.69 | Chg30d=+20.66% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+11.6% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.04 | Chg30d=+14.45% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+15.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +88% (up=21, down=0)