(PGY) Pagaya Technologies - Overview
Sector: Technology | Industry: Software - Infrastructure | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.057m USD | Total Return: -11.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 46.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Share dilution 25.5% YoY
Altman Z'' -0.96 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
Confidence
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a financial technology firm that utilizes artificial intelligence and data science to provide credit analysis and underwriting solutions. The company operates primarily through a B2B2C model, partnering with banks, auto finance providers, and fintech lenders to evaluate loan applications that might otherwise be rejected. Its core product suite, including Decline Monetization and Dual Look, enables real-time credit assessment and customer acquisition by connecting originators with institutional capital.
The company functions within the alternative lending infrastructure sector, where AI-driven models aim to improve approval rates without increasing risk profiles. Unlike traditional lenders that hold loans on their balance sheets, Pagaya typically operates an asset-light model, earning fees by facilitating the securitization of loans through its network of institutional investors. For a deeper look into the companys valuation metrics and financial health, consider reviewing the data available on ValueRay.
Founded in 2016 and headquartered in New York, Pagaya serves markets in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. Its technology stack integrates directly into partner workflows to automate decision-making for personal loans, auto loans, and residential real estate transactions.
- Network volume growth through new bank and auto finance partner onboarding
- ABS market liquidity and credit spread fluctuations impact funding costs
- AI model performance determines conversion rates for decline monetization products
- Macroeconomic interest rate shifts influence consumer loan demand and credit quality
- Regulatory scrutiny of AI-driven underwriting models affects long-term scalability
| Net Income: 98.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.54 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.39% < 20% (prev 14.94%; Δ 1.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 247.4m > Net Income 98.2m |
| Net Debt (610.7m) to EBITDA (181.5m): 3.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (96.7m) vs 12m ago 25.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.41% > 18% (prev 0.41%; Δ 4.10k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.59% > 50% (prev 82.16%; Δ 6.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.00 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 181.5m / Interest Expense TTM 78.9m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 550.7m - Total Current Liabilities 338.2m) / Total Assets 1.65b |
| B: -0.51 (Retained Earnings -838.0m / Total Assets 1.65b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 157.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.46b) |
| D: -0.83 (Book Value of Equity -870.2m / Total Liabilities 1.05b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.96 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 170.7m/123.2m, Revenue 1.30b/1.05b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 41.41% / 40.98%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.63 / AQ_t-1 0.67) |
| SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 1.30b / 1.05b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 98.2m - CFO 247.4m) / TA 1.65b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.12 with a total of 5,040,913 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.60%,
over one month by +17.07%,
over three months by +35.12% and
over the past year by -11.73%.
Pagaya Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PGY.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 26.9 | 77.9% |
P/E Trailing = 11.3929
P/E Forward = 4.2974
P/S = 0.7955
P/B = 1.9985
P/EG = 0.0349
Revenue TTM = 1.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 157.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 181.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 780.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 271.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 990.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 32.6m
Net Debt = 610.7m USD (calculated: Debt 990.7m - CCE 380.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.67b USD (1.06b + Debt 990.7m - CCE 380.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.00 (Ebit TTM 157.9m / Interest Expense TTM 78.9m)
EV/FCF = 7.13x (Enterprise Value 1.67b / FCF TTM 234.1m)
FCF Yield = 14.03% (FCF TTM 234.1m / Enterprise Value 1.67b)
FCF Margin = 18.05% (FCF TTM 234.1m / Revenue TTM 1.30b)
Net Margin = 7.57% (Net Income TTM 98.2m / Revenue TTM 1.30b)
Gross Margin = 41.41% ((Revenue TTM 1.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 759.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.15% (prev 40.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 1.67b / Total Assets 1.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.97% (Interest Expense 78.9m / Debt 990.7m)
Taxrate = 11.53% (3.15m / 27.3m)
NOPAT = 139.7m (EBIT 157.9m * (1 - 11.53%))
Current Ratio = 1.63 (Total Current Assets 550.7m / Total Current Liabilities 338.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 990.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 529.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.36 (Net Debt 610.7m / EBITDA 181.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.61 (Net Debt 610.7m / FCF TTM 234.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 453.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.71% (Net Income 98.2m / Total Assets 1.65b)
RoE = 7.60% (Net Income TTM 98.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = 7.62% (EBIT 157.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 780.7m))
RoIC = 8.83% (NOPAT 139.7m / Invested Capital 1.58b)
WACC = 11.69% (E(1.06b)/V(2.05b) * Re(16.03%) + D(990.7m)/V(2.05b) * Rd(7.97%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 16.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 20.86%
[DCF] Terminal Value 67.97% ; FCFF base≈159.2m ; Y1≈182.5m ; Y5≈268.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 26.91 (EV 2.54b - Net Debt 610.7m = Equity 1.93b / Shares 71.6m; r=11.69% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.70 | Revenue CAGR: 25.81% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+6.22% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=+4.33% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=+8.38% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=-6.9% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.54 | Chg30d=+4.42% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+14.8% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +64%