(PONY) Pony AI American Depositary - Overview
Stock: Robotaxi, Robotruck, V2x, Software, Licensing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 102% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 |
| Alpha | -23.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.378 |
| Beta Downside | 2.026 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 82.38% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.20 |
Description: PONY Pony AI American Depositary January 08, 2026
Pony AI Inc. (NASDAQ: PONY) operates autonomous-mobility subsidiaries in China, the United States and other markets, delivering robotaxi and robotruck services, AV software deployment, vehicle integration, and road-testing for OEMs and transportation-network companies. Its licensing arm also sells intelligent-driving software, proprietary domain controllers, V2X safety solutions and data-analytics tools to OEMs, logistics platforms and component suppliers. The firm was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Key quantitative signals (as of the latest public filings and industry trackers) suggest the company is scaling modestly: – fleet size grew ~35 % YoY to roughly 1,200 robotaxis in 2023; – revenue from licensing and services is estimated at $45 million in FY 2023, representing a 28 % year-over-year increase; – the autonomous-vehicle market in China is projected to expand at a 23 % CAGR through 2028, driven by supportive regulatory pilots and a shortage of commercial drivers. A material risk remains that the firm’s U.S. rollout is constrained by state-level permitting and the high capital intensity of sensor suites, which could delay breakeven timelines.
For a deeper dive into Pony AI’s valuation sensitivities and comparable peer metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -338.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 481.8% < 20% (prev 828.7%; Δ -346.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.19 > 3% & CFO -167.6m > Net Income -338.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (385.3m) vs 12m ago 173.6% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.57% > 18% (prev 0.15%; Δ 1843 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.88% > 50% (prev 8.77%; Δ 1.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.10 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -168.8m / Interest Expense TTM 159.0m) |
Altman Z'' 7.01
| A: 0.52 (Total Current Assets 541.3m - Total Current Liabilities 76.9m) / Total Assets 900.7m |
| B: -1.43 (Retained Earnings -1.29b / Total Assets 900.7m) |
| C: -0.18 (EBIT TTM -174.3m / Avg Total Assets 975.7m) |
| D: 9.04 (Book Value of Equity 801.2m / Total Liabilities 88.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.01 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.88
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 37.2m/36.9m, Revenue 96.4m/92.2m) |
| GMI: 0.80 (GM 18.57% / 14.88%) |
| AQI: 1.87 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 96.4m / 92.2m) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -338.3m - CFO -167.6m) / TA 900.7m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of PONY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.10%, over one month by -17.47%, over three months by -3.44% and over the past year by +8.49%.
Is PONY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PONY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 24.6 | 71.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 24.6 | 71.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.5 | 1.6% |
PONY Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/B = 7.5105
Revenue TTM = 96.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -174.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -168.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.1m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.86m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -83.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.47b USD (5.90b + Debt 15.1m - CCE 444.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.10 (Ebit TTM -174.3m / Interest Expense TTM 159.0m)
EV/FCF = -30.58x (Enterprise Value 5.47b / FCF TTM -178.8m)
FCF Yield = -3.27% (FCF TTM -178.8m / Enterprise Value 5.47b)
FCF Margin = -185.5% (FCF TTM -178.8m / Revenue TTM 96.4m)
Net Margin = -351.0% (Net Income TTM -338.3m / Revenue TTM 96.4m)
Gross Margin = 18.57% ((Revenue TTM 96.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.35% (prev 16.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.07 (Enterprise Value 5.47b / Total Assets 900.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 37.40% (Interest Expense 5.66m / Debt 15.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -137.7m (EBIT -174.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.04 (Total Current Assets 541.3m / Total Current Liabilities 76.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 15.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 801.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -83.9m / EBITDA -168.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.47 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -83.9m / FCF TTM -178.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 876.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -34.67% (Net Income -338.3m / Total Assets 900.7m)
RoE = -38.60% (Net Income TTM -338.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 876.4m)
RoCE = -19.55% (EBIT -174.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 876.4m + L.T.Debt 15.1m))
RoIC = -15.71% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -137.7m / Invested Capital 876.4m)
WACC = 14.72% (E(5.90b)/V(5.91b) * Re(14.68%) + D(15.1m)/V(5.91b) * Rd(37.40%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 106.8%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -178.8m)
EPS Correlation: 76.04 | EPS CAGR: 23.7k% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 55.98 | Revenue CAGR: 76.54% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.58 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-0.3% | Growth Revenue=+47.5%