PONY Stock Analysis: Pony AI American Depositary | NASDAQ
Information Technology Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.161m USD | 12M Return: -44.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.0M
Rev. Trend: 94.1%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Pony AI Inc. (NASDAQ: PONY) is a China-based autonomous mobility company operating through three core segments: robotaxi services, robotruck freight transportation, and licensing and applications. The robotaxi unit delivers AV engineering solutions-including software deployment, vehicle integration, and road testing-to OEMs and transportation network companies, while the robotruck business provides autonomous transportation services to logistics platforms. The licensing and applications segment supplies intelligent driving software, proprietary vehicle domain controllers, data analytics tools, V2X products, and integration services to OEMs and sensor/hardware suppliers. Incorporated in 2016 and headquartered in Guangzhou, the company went public on NASDAQ on November 27, 2024.
Operating within the Application Software sub-industry (GICS Information Technology), Pony AI sits in the broader autonomous driving and intelligent transportation sector, where firms typically monetize through a mix of recurring software licensing, fleet-as-a-service robotaxi/robotruck operations, and engineering services. The autonomous mobility industry remains capital-intensive, with companies generally relying on partnerships with OEMs, tier-1 suppliers, and municipal pilot programs to validate and scale their technologies.
- Robotaxi fare revenue scales with fleet expansion across Chinese cities
- China autonomous driving regulatory clearances accelerate commercial deployment
- Competition intensifies from Baidu Apollo and Tesla Robotaxi launches
| Net Income: -141.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 991.3% < 20% (prev 675.6%; Δ 315.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.08 > 3% & CFO -139.2m > Net Income -141.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 16.12 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (433.5m) vs 12m ago 23.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.78% > 18% (prev 12.61%; Δ 3.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.10% > 50% (prev 10.22%; Δ -2.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.62 (Total Current Assets 1.17b - Total Current Liabilities 72.4m) / Total Assets 1.76b |
| B: -0.81 (Retained Earnings -1.42b / Total Assets 1.76b) |
| C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -263.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.36b) |
| D: 18.84 (Book Value of Equity 1.61b / Total Liabilities 85.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 19.94 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.49 (Receivables 50.1m/30.2m, Revenue 110.4m/99.3m) |
| GMI: 0.80 (GM 12.61% / 15.78%) |
| AQI: 1.23 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 110.4m / 99.3m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI -141.3m - CFO -139.2m) / TA 1.76b) |
| Beneish M = -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.73 with a total of 2,248,602 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.68%, over one month by -21.65%, over three months by -28.18% and over the past year by -44.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.10 (which is 9.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Pony AI American Depositary has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PONY.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.9 | 210.7% |
P/S = 28.6611
P/B = 1.9558
Revenue TTM = 110.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -263.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -257.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 11.3m USD (estimated: total debt 16.4m - short term 5.04m)
Short Term Debt = 5.04m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 16.4m already included)
Net Debt = -1.05b USD (calculated: Debt 16.4m - CCE 1.07b)
Enterprise Value = 2.11b USD (3.16b + Debt 16.4m - CCE 1.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -263.5m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = -8.44x (Enterprise Value 2.11b / FCF TTM -249.8m)
FCF Yield = -11.84% (FCF TTM -249.8m / Enterprise Value 2.11b)
FCF Margin = -226.3% (FCF TTM -249.8m / Revenue TTM 110.4m)
Net Margin = -128.0% (Net Income TTM -141.3m / Revenue TTM 110.4m)
Gross Margin = 15.78% ((Revenue TTM 110.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 93.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.24% (prev 12.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 2.11b / Total Assets 1.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 16.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -208.1m (EBIT -263.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 16.12 (Total Current Assets 1.17b / Total Current Liabilities 72.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 16.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.09 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.05b / EBITDA -257.3m)
Debt / FCF = 4.21 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.05b / FCF TTM -249.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.36% (Net Income -141.3m / Total Assets 1.76b)
RoE = -11.48% (Net Income TTM -141.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.23b)
RoCE = -21.22% (EBIT -263.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.23b + L.T.Debt 11.3m))
RoIC = -12.37% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -208.1m / Invested Capital 1.68b)
WACC = 21.07% (E(3.16b)/V(3.18b) * Re(21.18%) + D(16.4m)/V(3.18b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 21.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 101.1%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -249.8m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.06 | Revenue CAGR: 12.03% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=-12.67% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.18 | Chg30d=-19.45% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.61 | Chg30d=+1.99% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-28.8% | GrowthRev=+63.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.60 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+0.2% | GrowthRev=+117.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67% (up=1, down=11)