(PRCH) Porch - Overview
Stock: Insurance, Warranty, Software, Inspection, Mortgage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 115% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -22.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.87 |
| Alpha | 30.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.221 |
| Beta Downside | 2.194 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.04% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.34 |
Description: PRCH Porch January 16, 2026
Porch Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRCH) runs a vertically integrated software-and-insurance platform that serves the U.S. home-services ecosystem, covering everything from mortgage and title-software to moving, inspection, repair, and warranty products under brands such as Porch Warranty, American Home Protect, and Residential Warranty Services.
Beyond SaaS subscriptions, the firm generates transactional revenue by selling property-related insurance and extended-labor warranties (e.g., 90-day and whole-home coverage) and by offering ancillary services like mover-to-homeowner marketing and roof-measurement tools.
Key operating metrics from the most recent quarter (Q4 2023) show a 12% YoY increase in subscription ARR to $112 M, while warranty sales grew 9% driven by rising home-ownership rates and a tight labor market that pushes homeowners toward protection products.
Sector-wide, the home-services software market is expanding at ~8% CAGR, fueled by digital-first consumer expectations and a lagging supply of skilled tradespeople, which creates a pricing premium for platforms that can bundle software, insurance, and labor coordination.
Analysts should watch the company’s churn rate (currently ~6% annualized) and its loss-ratio on warranty claims, as both are leading indicators of profitability sustainability.
For a deeper, data-driven view of PRCH’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help surface the most material risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 30.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 22.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.59% < 20% (prev -18.72%; Δ 25.31% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 38.6m > Net Income 30.6m |
| Net Debt (305.6m) to EBITDA (119.3m): 2.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.33 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.3m) vs 12m ago 5.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 71.77% > 18% (prev 0.44%; Δ 7133 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.47% > 50% (prev 52.13%; Δ 1.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.98 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 119.3m / Interest Expense TTM 48.0m) |
Altman Z'' -2.52
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 116.3m - Total Current Liabilities 87.1m) / Total Assets 787.7m |
| B: -0.82 (Retained Earnings -644.8m / Total Assets 787.7m) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 95.1m / Avg Total Assets 827.5m) |
| D: -0.83 (Book Value of Equity -644.4m / Total Liabilities 777.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.52 = D |
Beneish M -3.78
| DSRI: 0.11 (Receivables 13.2m/124.7m, Revenue 442.5m/452.1m) |
| GMI: 0.61 (GM 71.77% / 43.78%) |
| AQI: 1.61 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 442.5m / 452.1m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 30.6m - CFO 38.6m) / TA 787.7m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.78 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of PRCH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.11%, over one month by -22.04%, over three months by -31.80% and over the past year by +61.29%.
Is PRCH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PRCH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.6 | 143.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.6 | 143.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.3 | 0% |
PRCH Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 54.0541
P/S = 1.6717
P/B = 1.7993
Revenue TTM = 442.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 95.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 119.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 379.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.76m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 387.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 305.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.03b USD (739.7m + Debt 387.1m - CCE 93.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.98 (Ebit TTM 95.1m / Interest Expense TTM 48.0m)
EV/FCF = 37.81x (Enterprise Value 1.03b / FCF TTM 27.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.65% (FCF TTM 27.3m / Enterprise Value 1.03b)
FCF Margin = 6.18% (FCF TTM 27.3m / Revenue TTM 442.5m)
Net Margin = 6.91% (Net Income TTM 30.6m / Revenue TTM 442.5m)
Gross Margin = 71.77% ((Revenue TTM 442.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 124.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.63% (prev 63.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.31 (Enterprise Value 1.03b / Total Assets 787.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.61% (Interest Expense 14.0m / Debt 387.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 75.1m (EBIT 95.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.33 (Total Current Assets 116.3m / Total Current Liabilities 87.1m)
Debt / Equity = -13.87 (negative equity) (Debt 387.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -27.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.56 (Net Debt 305.6m / EBITDA 119.3m)
Debt / FCF = 11.18 (Net Debt 305.6m / FCF TTM 27.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -38.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.70% (Net Income 30.6m / Total Assets 787.7m)
RoE = -80.05% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 30.6m / Total Stockholder Equity -38.2m)
RoCE = 27.87% (EBIT 95.1m / Capital Employed (Equity -38.2m + L.T.Debt 379.4m))
RoIC = 20.85% (NOPAT 75.1m / Invested Capital 360.4m)
WACC = 10.23% (E(739.7m)/V(1.13b) * Re(14.10%) + D(387.1m)/V(1.13b) * Rd(3.61%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.75%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.21% ; FCFF base≈27.3m ; Y1≈20.5m ; Y5≈12.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 163.0m - Net Debt 305.6m = -142.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 52.11 | EPS CAGR: 1.88% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.95 | Revenue CAGR: 24.71% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.09 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+195.3% | Growth Revenue=+13.9%