(PVLA) Palvella Therapeutics - Ratings and Ratios
Rapamycin, Gel, Microcystic, Malformations, mTOR
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 95.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 137% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.69% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.22 |
| Alpha | 809.30 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.467 |
| Beta | 0.807 |
| Beta Downside | 0.412 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 95.86% |
| Mean DD | 75.70% |
| Median DD | 86.99% |
Description: PVLA Palvella Therapeutics October 29, 2025
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PVLA) is a clinical-stage biopharma firm headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, dedicated to developing novel therapies for serious and rare genetic skin disorders.
The company’s lead candidate, QTORIN 3.9% rapamycin anhydrous gel, is currently enrolled in a Phase 3 trial for microcystic lymphatic malformations (MLMs) and a Phase 2 trial for cutaneous venous malformations (CVMs). Success in these studies would position QTORIN as the first FDA-approved topical rapamycin formulation for these indications.
Beyond MLMs and CVMs, Palvella is expanding the QTORIN platform to address other mTOR-driven dermatologic diseases, leveraging the well-characterized safety profile of rapamycin to accelerate development timelines.
Key metrics from the company’s most recent 10-Q (Q2 2024) show a cash runway of roughly $45 million, R&D spending of $12 million year-to-date, and a market capitalization near $120 million, indicating modest liquidity but significant upside potential if Phase 3 results are positive. The broader mTOR-targeted dermatology market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~9 % through 2030, driven by increasing recognition of mTOR’s role in vascular anomalies and rising reimbursement rates for rare-disease therapies.
If you’re interested in a deeper quantitative assessment, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help you benchmark Palvella’s valuation against peers and uncover hidden upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| error: Net Income check cannot be calculated (needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.38 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 84.27pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| error: NWC/Revenue cannot be calculated (needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.38 (>3.0%) and CFO -25.5m > Net Income -33.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 6.49 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (11.1m) change vs 12m ago 738.2% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| error: Gross Margin (current vs previous) cannot be calculated (needs Total Revenue and Cost Of Revenue) |
| Asset Turnover 0.0% (prev 6.59%; Δ -6.59pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -5.01 (EBITDA TTM -19.1m / Interest Expense TTM 5.38m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -9.13
| (A) 0.85 = (Total Current Assets 66.9m - Total Current Liabilities 10.3m) / Total Assets 66.9m |
| (B) -1.83 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -122.7m / Total Assets 66.9m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.83 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.62 = EBIT TTM -27.0m / Avg Total Assets 43.7m |
| (D) -4.34 = Book Value of Equity -122.6m / Total Liabilities 28.3m |
| Total Rating: -9.13 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 25.51
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -2.34% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.31 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.33 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -61.72)% |
| 7. RoE -64.41% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -79.36% |
| 9. EPS Trend 46.76% |
What is the price of PVLA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +22.58%, over one month by +11.26%, over three months by +85.78% and over the past year by +808.92%.
Is PVLA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PVLA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 182.6 | 67.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 182.6 | 67.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 122.9 | 12.7% |
PVLA Fundamental Data Overview December 20, 2025
P/B = 29.4489
Beta = None
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -27.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -19.1m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 11.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -63.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.09b USD (1.14b + Debt 11.9m - CCE 63.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.01 (Ebit TTM -27.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.38m)
FCF Yield = -2.34% (FCF TTM -25.5m / Enterprise Value 1.09b)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 31.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 16.25 (Enterprise Value 1.09b / Total Assets 66.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.64% (Interest Expense 1.51m / Debt 11.9m)
Taxrate = -0.0% (0.0 / -11.3m)
NOPAT = -27.0m (EBIT -27.0m * (1 - -0.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.49 (Total Current Assets 66.9m / Total Current Liabilities 10.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 11.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 38.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -63.6m / EBITDA -19.1m)
Debt / FCF = 2.50 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -63.6m / FCF TTM -25.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 51.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -49.23% (Net Income -33.0m / Total Assets 66.9m)
RoE = -64.41% (Net Income TTM -33.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 51.2m)
RoCE = -47.60% (EBIT -27.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 66.9m - Current Liab 10.3m))
RoIC = -52.69% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -27.0m / Invested Capital 51.2m)
WACC = 9.03% (E(1.14b)/V(1.15b) * Re(8.99%) + D(11.9m)/V(1.15b) * Rd(12.64%) * (1-Tc(-0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 199.1%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -25.5m)
EPS Correlation: 46.76 | EPS CAGR: 36.49% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.36 | Revenue CAGR: -65.35% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.90 | Chg30d=-0.073 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-4.00 | Chg30d=-0.087 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-14.1% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for PVLA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle