(PVLA) Palvella Therapeutics - Overview
Stock: Rapamycin Gel, Rare Dermatology
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 91.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.48 |
| Alpha | 443.84 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.777 |
| Beta Downside | 0.413 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 95.25% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.17 |
Description: PVLA Palvella Therapeutics January 01, 2026
Palvella Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PVLA) is a clinical-stage biotech headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, dedicated to developing rapamycin-based topical therapies for rare, genetically driven skin disorders. Its lead candidate, QTORIN 3.9 % rapamycin anhydrous gel, is currently in a pivotal Phase 3 trial for microcystic lymphatic malformations (MLM) and a Phase 2 study for cutaneous venous malformations, with additional pre-clinical work targeting other mTOR-driven dermatologic conditions.
Key operational metrics (as of the latest 10-Q) show a market capitalization of roughly $210 million, cash and short-term investments of about $68 million, and a net cash burn of ~ $28 million per year, giving the company roughly 2-3 years of runway absent additional financing. The Phase 3 MLM trial is designed to meet a primary endpoint of ≥ 50 % reduction in lesion volume by week 24, with data expected in Q4 2024; a positive read could unlock a potential orphan-drug designation and premium pricing (estimated $30-$40 k per patient annually).
Sector-wide, the rare-disease biotech niche has historically commanded valuation multiples 2-3× higher than the broader biotech index, driven by smaller patient pools, limited competition, and the ability to secure accelerated-approval pathways. Moreover, rapamycin’s established safety profile (already approved for systemic use in transplant medicine) reduces regulatory risk for topical formulations, a factor that investors often price into the discount rate for early-stage pipelines.
For a deeper, data-driven perspective on PVLA’s valuation assumptions, the ValueRay platform offers a concise model worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: error (cannot be calculated; needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCF/TA: -0.38 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 84.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.38 > 3% & CFO -25.5m > Net Income -33.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (11.1m) vs 12m ago 738.2% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.0% > 50% (prev 6.59%; Δ -6.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.01 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -19.1m / Interest Expense TTM 5.38m) |
Altman Z'' -9.13
| A: 0.85 (Total Current Assets 66.9m - Total Current Liabilities 10.3m) / Total Assets 66.9m |
| B: -1.83 (Retained Earnings -122.7m / Total Assets 66.9m) |
| C: -0.62 (EBIT TTM -27.0m / Avg Total Assets 43.7m) |
| D: -4.34 (Book Value of Equity -122.6m / Total Liabilities 28.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -9.13 = D |
What is the price of PVLA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.18%, over one month by -9.10%, over three months by +4.54% and over the past year by +448.00%.
Is PVLA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PVLA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 184.1 | 123.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 184.1 | 123.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 82.4 | 0.3% |
PVLA Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -27.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -19.1m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 11.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -63.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 917.8m USD (969.4m + Debt 11.9m - CCE 63.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.01 (Ebit TTM -27.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.38m)
EV/FCF = -36.03x (Enterprise Value 917.8m / FCF TTM -25.5m)
FCF Yield = -2.78% (FCF TTM -25.5m / Enterprise Value 917.8m)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 0.0) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.71 (Enterprise Value 917.8m / Total Assets 66.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.64% (Interest Expense 1.51m / Debt 11.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -21.3m (EBIT -27.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.49 (Total Current Assets 66.9m / Total Current Liabilities 10.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 11.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 38.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -63.6m / EBITDA -19.1m)
Debt / FCF = 2.50 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -63.6m / FCF TTM -25.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 51.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -75.35% (Net Income -33.0m / Total Assets 66.9m)
RoE = -64.41% (Net Income TTM -33.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 51.2m)
RoCE = -47.60% (EBIT -27.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 66.9m - Current Liab 10.3m))
RoIC = -41.62% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -21.3m / Invested Capital 51.2m)
WACC = 8.79% (E(969.4m)/V(981.4m) * Re(8.78%) + D(11.9m)/V(981.4m) * Rd(12.64%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 41.42%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -25.5m)
EPS Correlation: 47.48 | EPS CAGR: 52.14% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.36 | Revenue CAGR: -65.35% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.91 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-4.04 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=-14.9% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%