PZZA Stock Analysis: Papa John's International | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 644m USD | 12M Return: -57.9% | US6988131024 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.7M
EPS Trend: -93.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -82.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Papa Johns International, Inc. (PZZA) is a Louisville, Kentucky-based pizza restaurant chain founded in 1984 that operates and franchises delivery and carryout locations under the Papa Johns trademark across the United States, Canada, and additional international markets. The business is organized into four reporting segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International.
In addition to its dine-in and delivery restaurants, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to its restaurant system, meaning it both sells to consumers and acts as a vertical supplier to its franchise network.
As a member of the GICS Restaurants sub-industry, Papa Johns operates within the highly competitive quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, where franchise-based models, commissary supply chains, and multi-brand competition are common. The company has been publicly traded on NASDAQ since its 1993 IPO and is classified as a small-cap stock within the Consumer Discretionary sector.
- International franchise unit growth accelerates across global markets
- Cheese and wheat commodity costs pressure restaurant-level margins
- Delivery competition with Dominos pressures same-store sales growth
| Net Income: 27.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.46% < 20% (prev -2.59%; Δ 0.12% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 95.0m > Net Income 27.6m |
| Net Debt (1.12b) to EBITDA (238.8m): 4.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.1m) vs 12m ago 0.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.16% > 18% (prev 27.24%; Δ -4.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 232.1% > 50% (prev 234.2%; Δ -2.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 145.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 234.4m - Total Current Liabilities 282.8m) / Total Assets 805.0m |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 195.3m / Total Assets 805.0m) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 145.9m / Avg Total Assets 847.7m) |
| D: -0.36 (Book Value of Equity -453.1m / Total Liabilities 1.25b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.17 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 97.7m/111.3m, Revenue 1.97b/2.09b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 27.24% / 23.16%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 1.97b / 2.09b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 27.6m - CFO 95.0m) / TA 805.0m) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.43 with a total of 1,016,026 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.61%, over one month by -14.14%, over three months by -45.76% and over the past year by -57.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.40 (which is 5.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Papa John's International has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.64. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PZZA.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 29 | 49.3% |
P/E Trailing = 24.4375
P/E Forward = 18.7266
P/S = 0.3272
P/B = 284.1754
P/EG = 2.3394
Revenue TTM = 1.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 145.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 238.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 715.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 208.0m
Net Debt = 1.12b USD (calculated: Debt 1.14b - CCE 28.5m)
Enterprise Value = 1.76b USD (643.6m + Debt 1.14b - CCE 28.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.45 (Ebit TTM 145.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100.5m)
EV/FCF = 51.36x (Enterprise Value 1.76b / FCF TTM 34.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.95% (FCF TTM 34.2m / Enterprise Value 1.76b)
FCF Margin = 1.74% (FCF TTM 34.2m / Revenue TTM 1.97b)
Net Margin = 1.40% (Net Income TTM 27.6m / Revenue TTM 1.97b)
Gross Margin = 23.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.72% (prev 28.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.18 (Enterprise Value 1.76b / Total Assets 805.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.79% (Interest Expense 100.5m / Debt 1.14b)
Taxrate = 36.60% (16.6m / 45.3m)
NOPAT = 92.5m (EBIT 145.9m * (1 - 36.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 234.4m / Total Current Liabilities 282.8m)
Debt / Equity = -2.52 (negative equity) (Debt 1.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -453.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.67 (Net Debt 1.12b / EBITDA 238.8m)
Debt / FCF = 32.57 (Net Debt 1.12b / FCF TTM 34.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -446.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.25% (Net Income 27.6m / Total Assets 805.0m)
RoE = -6.17% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 27.6m / Total Stockholder Equity -446.6m)
RoCE = 54.29% (EBIT 145.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -446.6m + L.T.Debt 715.2m))
RoIC = 17.16% (NOPAT 92.5m / Invested Capital 538.9m)
WACC = 7.65% (E(643.6m)/V(1.79b) * Re(11.33%) + D(1.14b)/V(1.79b) * Rd(8.79%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 11.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.37 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈43.7m ; Y1≈38.3m ; Y5≈31.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 497.0m - Net Debt 1.12b = -618.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -93.78 | EPS CAGR: -24.49% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -82.57 | Revenue CAGR: -2.10% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+3.20% | Revisions=-82% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=-82% | GrowthEPS=-17.3% | GrowthRev=-8.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=-82% | GrowthEPS=+12.7% | GrowthRev=-2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -93% (up=0, down=42)