PZZA Stock Analysis: Papa John's International | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 811m USD | 12M Return: -41.7% | US6988131024 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 34.3M
EPS Trend: -93.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -82.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Papa Johns International, Inc. (PZZA) operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns brand across the United States, Canada, and other international markets. The company reports through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International, combining a traditional franchise model with a vertically integrated commissary system that supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to its restaurant network. Founded in 1984 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, Papa Johns is listed on NASDAQ and is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically the Restaurants sub-industry, which is dominated by quick-service and fast-casual operators that rely heavily on franchise-driven unit growth, delivery and digital ordering channels, and supply chain efficiencies to manage food and labor costs.
- North America same-store sales drive franchising royalty growth
- Cheese and wheat commodity inflation pressures restaurant-level margins
- International unit growth accelerates in UK and Latin America markets
| Net Income: 27.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.46% < 20% (prev -2.59%; Δ 0.12% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 95.0m > Net Income 27.6m |
| Net Debt (944.6m) to EBITDA (238.8m): 3.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.1m) vs 12m ago 0.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.16% > 18% (prev 27.24%; Δ -4.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 232.1% > 50% (prev 234.2%; Δ -2.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM 145.9m / Interest Expense TTM 81.2m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 234.4m - Total Current Liabilities 282.8m) / Total Assets 805.0m |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 195.3m / Total Assets 805.0m) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 145.9m / Avg Total Assets 847.7m) |
| D: -0.35 (Book Value of Equity -441.2m / Total Liabilities 1.25b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.18 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 100.2m/111.3m, Revenue 1.97b/2.09b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 27.24% / 23.16%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 1.97b / 2.09b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 27.6m - CFO 95.0m) / TA 805.0m) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.47 with a total of 3,431,127 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -18.16%, over one month by -29.80%, over three months by -24.51% and over the past year by -41.67%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.40 (which is 8.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Papa John's International has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.64. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PZZA.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 36.8 | 50.4% |
P/E Trailing = 29.6867
P/E Forward = 17.8571
P/S = 0.4025
P/B = 284.1754
P/EG = 2.2326
Revenue TTM = 1.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 145.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 238.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 710.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 45.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 973.1m USD (corrected: LT Debt 710.4m + ST Debt 45.2m) + Leases 217.4m
Net Debt = 944.6m USD (calculated: Debt 973.1m - CCE 28.5m)
Enterprise Value = 1.76b USD (810.7m + Debt 973.1m - CCE 28.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.80 (Ebit TTM 145.9m / Interest Expense TTM 81.2m)
EV/FCF = 51.27x (Enterprise Value 1.76b / FCF TTM 34.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.95% (FCF TTM 34.2m / Enterprise Value 1.76b)
FCF Margin = 1.74% (FCF TTM 34.2m / Revenue TTM 1.97b)
Net Margin = 1.40% (Net Income TTM 27.6m / Revenue TTM 1.97b)
Gross Margin = 23.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.72% (prev 28.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.18 (Enterprise Value 1.76b / Total Assets 805.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.34% (Interest Expense 81.2m / Debt 973.1m)
Taxrate = 36.60% (16.6m / 45.3m)
NOPAT = 92.5m (EBIT 145.9m * (1 - 36.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 234.4m / Total Current Liabilities 282.8m)
Debt / Equity = -2.21 (negative equity) (Debt 973.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -441.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.95 (Net Debt 944.6m / EBITDA 238.8m)
Debt / FCF = 27.59 (Net Debt 944.6m / FCF TTM 34.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -443.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.25% (Net Income 27.6m / Total Assets 805.0m)
RoE = -6.21% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 27.6m / Total Stockholder Equity -443.6m)
RoCE = 54.66% (EBIT 145.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -443.6m + L.T.Debt 710.4m))
RoIC = 17.16% (NOPAT 92.5m / Invested Capital 538.9m)
WACC = 7.87% (E(810.7m)/V(1.78b) * Re(10.96%) + D(973.1m)/V(1.78b) * Rd(8.34%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 10.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.37 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈43.7m ; Y1≈38.3m ; Y5≈31.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 497.0m - Net Debt 944.6m = -447.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -93.78 | EPS CAGR: -24.49% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -82.57 | Revenue CAGR: -2.10% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-6.15% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-3.10% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=-6.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=-1.87% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+19.3% | GrowthRev=-1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)