PZZA Stock Analysis: Papa John's International | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 655m USD | 12M Return: -49.2% | US6988131024 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 28.1M
EPS Trend: -97.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -89.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Papa Johns International, Inc. (PZZA) is a Louisville, Kentucky-based pizza restaurant chain founded in 1984 that operates and franchises delivery and carryout locations under the Papa Johns trademark across the United States, Canada, and additional international markets. The business is organized into four reporting segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International.
In addition to its dine-in and delivery restaurants, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to its restaurant system, meaning it both sells to consumers and acts as a vertical supplier to its franchise network.
As a member of the GICS Restaurants sub-industry, Papa Johns operates within the highly competitive quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, where franchise-based models, commissary supply chains, and multi-brand competition are common. The company has been publicly traded on NASDAQ since its 1993 IPO and is classified as a small-cap stock within the Consumer Discretionary sector.
- International franchise unit growth accelerates across global markets
- Cheese and wheat commodity costs pressure restaurant-level margins
- Delivery competition with Dominos pressures same-store sales growth
| Net Income: 26.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.16% < 20% (prev -1.92%; Δ -1.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 78.3m > Net Income 26.0m |
| Net Debt (1.09b) to EBITDA (230.3m): 4.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.1m) vs 12m ago 0.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.31% > 18% (prev 24.64%; Δ 0.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 231.0% > 50% (prev 236.0%; Δ -4.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 143.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100.0m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 207.5m - Total Current Liabilities 267.9m) / Total Assets 772.8m |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 198.7m / Total Assets 772.8m) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 143.9m / Avg Total Assets 828.5m) |
| D: -0.37 (Book Value of Equity -445.6m / Total Liabilities 1.21b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.11 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 97.8m/111.9m, Revenue 1.91b/2.09b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 24.64% / 25.31%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 1.91b / 2.09b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 26.0m - CFO 78.3m) / TA 772.8m) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.92 with a total of 1,099,708 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.96%, over one month by +3.21%, over three months by -18.46% and over the past year by -49.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.60 (which is 6.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Papa John's International has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.23. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PZZA.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28 | 40.6% |
P/E Trailing = 24.8625
P/E Forward = 18.3486
P/S = 0.3328
P/B = 284.1754
P/EG = 2.2924
Revenue TTM = 1.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 143.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 230.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 710.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 44.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 208.0m
Net Debt = 1.09b USD (calculated: Debt 1.12b - CCE 27.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.75b USD (654.8m + Debt 1.12b - CCE 27.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.44 (Ebit TTM 143.9m / Interest Expense TTM 100.0m)
EV/FCF = 69.77x (Enterprise Value 1.75b / FCF TTM 25.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.43% (FCF TTM 25.1m / Enterprise Value 1.75b)
FCF Margin = 1.31% (FCF TTM 25.1m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Net Margin = 1.36% (Net Income TTM 26.0m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Gross Margin = 25.31% ((Revenue TTM 1.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.76% (prev 29.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.26 (Enterprise Value 1.75b / Total Assets 772.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.91% (Interest Expense 100.0m / Debt 1.12b)
Taxrate = 37.31% (16.4m / 43.9m)
NOPAT = 90.2m (EBIT 143.9m * (1 - 37.31%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 207.5m / Total Current Liabilities 267.9m)
Debt / Equity = -2.52 (negative equity) (Debt 1.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -445.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.75 (Net Debt 1.09b / EBITDA 230.3m)
Debt / FCF = 43.65 (Net Debt 1.09b / FCF TTM 25.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -448.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.14% (Net Income 26.0m / Total Assets 772.8m)
RoE = -5.80% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 26.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -448.1m)
RoCE = 54.87% (EBIT 143.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -448.1m + L.T.Debt 710.4m))
RoIC = 17.28% (NOPAT 90.2m / Invested Capital 522.1m)
WACC = 7.32% (E(654.8m)/V(1.78b) * Re(10.30%) + D(1.12b)/V(1.78b) * Rd(8.91%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 10.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.65 | Cagr: 0.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈47.3m ; Y1≈41.5m ; Y5≈33.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 537.9m - Net Debt 1.09b = -556.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -97.40 | EPS CAGR: -27.16% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -89.02 | Revenue CAGR: -3.16% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=-2.83% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.16 | Chg30d=-1.66% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-18.7% | GrowthRev=-8.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=-2.73% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=-2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)