(PZZA) Papa John's International - Overview
Stock: Pizza, Dough, Sauce, Beverages, Supplies
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.44% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.06% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.47% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 115.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.65% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.08 |
| Alpha | -19.20 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.794 |
| Beta Downside | 0.844 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.25% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.39 |
Description: PZZA Papa John's International January 15, 2026
Papa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA) runs and franchises pizza delivery and carry-out outlets under the Papa John’s brand across the U.S., Canada, and other international markets. The company’s operations are split into four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International, with the latter also offering dine-in concepts.
As of the latest quarterly report, same-store sales were up roughly 4% year-over-year, and the franchise network now exceeds 5,300 locations, contributing over 70% of total systemwide sales. The firm’s operating margin sits near 12%, bolstered by cost-saving initiatives in its commissary supply chain and a growing share of digital orders, which now account for about 55% of total transactions.
Key economic levers for Papa John’s include consumer discretionary spending trends, commodity price volatility (especially cheese and wheat), and labor-cost pressures in the restaurant sector. Additionally, the broader shift toward online ordering and delivery platforms continues to drive incremental traffic and higher average ticket sizes.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Papa John’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 38.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.92% < 20% (prev -2.60%; Δ 0.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 156.9m > Net Income 38.3m |
| Net Debt (911.2m) to EBITDA (173.1m): 5.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.0m) vs 12m ago 0.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.64% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2438 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 239.1% > 50% (prev 243.9%; Δ -4.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.32 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 173.1m / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m) |
Altman Z'' 1.41
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 270.8m - Total Current Liabilities 310.8m) / Total Assets 884.1m |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 219.0m / Total Assets 884.1m) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 94.2m / Avg Total Assets 872.5m) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 212.8m / Total Liabilities 1.31b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.41 = BB |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 111.9m/109.9m, Revenue 2.09b/2.10b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 24.64% / 25.77%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 2.09b / 2.10b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 38.3m - CFO 156.9m) / TA 884.1m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PZZA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.69%, over one month by -9.82%, over three months by -30.61% and over the past year by -5.90%.
Is PZZA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PZZA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 46.9 | 33.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 46.9 | 33.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.7 | -12.7% |
PZZA Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.9856
P/S = 0.5799
P/EG = 2.2495
Revenue TTM = 2.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 94.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 173.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 727.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 950.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 911.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.12b USD (1.21b + Debt 950.2m - CCE 39.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.32 (Ebit TTM 94.2m / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m)
EV/FCF = 26.31x (Enterprise Value 2.12b / FCF TTM 80.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.80% (FCF TTM 80.6m / Enterprise Value 2.12b)
FCF Margin = 3.86% (FCF TTM 80.6m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Net Margin = 1.83% (Net Income TTM 38.3m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Gross Margin = 24.64% ((Revenue TTM 2.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.20% (prev 29.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.40 (Enterprise Value 2.12b / Total Assets 884.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.05% (Interest Expense 9.95m / Debt 950.2m)
Taxrate = 28.16% (1.75m / 6.23m)
NOPAT = 67.6m (EBIT 94.2m * (1 - 28.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 270.8m / Total Current Liabilities 310.8m)
Debt / Equity = -2.16 (negative equity) (Debt 950.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -439.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.26 (Net Debt 911.2m / EBITDA 173.1m)
Debt / FCF = 11.30 (Net Debt 911.2m / FCF TTM 80.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -433.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.39% (Net Income 38.3m / Total Assets 884.1m)
RoE = -8.83% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 38.3m / Total Stockholder Equity -433.2m)
RoCE = 32.03% (EBIT 94.2m / Capital Employed (Equity -433.2m + L.T.Debt 727.1m))
RoIC = 22.42% (NOPAT 67.6m / Invested Capital 301.7m)
WACC = 5.28% (E(1.21b)/V(2.16b) * Re(8.84%) + D(950.2m)/V(2.16b) * Rd(1.05%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 8.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.33%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.19% ; FCFF base≈68.1m ; Y1≈52.2m ; Y5≈32.4m
Fair Price DCF = 2.84 (EV 1.00b - Net Debt 911.2m = Equity 93.0m / Shares 32.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -27.77% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -78.21 | EPS CAGR: -52.90% | SUE: -3.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -24.09 | Revenue CAGR: -1.06% | SUE: -1.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.84 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+29.0% | Growth Revenue=-1.8%