(RAIL) Freightcar America - Ratings and Ratios
Railcars, Parts, Used, Leasing, Rebuild
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 80.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.30 |
| Alpha | -18.50 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.607 |
| Beta | 1.658 |
| Beta Downside | 1.397 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.67% |
| Mean DD | 28.02% |
| Median DD | 28.12% |
Description: RAIL Freightcar America October 30, 2025
FreightCar America, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAIL) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of railcars and railcar components for bulk and containerized freight across the United States and Mexico, operating through distinct Manufacturing and Parts segments.
The product lineup spans boxcars, hopper cars (covered and open-top), intermodal and non-intermodal flatcars, mill gondolas, coil-steel, coal, Dynastack, aluminum-coal, stainless-steel, and hybrid stainless-steel cars, plus a used-car marketplace, rebuild/convert services, leasing, and a catalog of forged, cast, and fabricated parts for rail operators, shippers, and financial institutions.
Key operational metrics (FY 2024 Q3) show a 7% year-over-year increase in total railcar orders, driven primarily by rising demand for intermodal flatcars as e-commerce freight volumes climb, while the Parts segment posted a 4% margin expansion thanks to higher utilization of its in-house forging capacity.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect RAIL include: (1) U.S. rail freight tonnage growth, which has averaged 2.5% annually over the past three years; (2) commodity price cycles-particularly coal and steel-that influence new-build volumes; and (3) rail infrastructure investment trends, with the U.S. Department of Transportation earmarking $15 billion for rail network upgrades through 2028, bolstering long-term demand for modern rolling stock.
Given these dynamics, a deeper dive into FreightCar America’s order backlog trends and capacity utilization rates on ValueRay could help you gauge the sustainability of its recent order growth.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (89.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 30.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -17.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 17.20% (prev 11.54%; Δ 5.67pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 30.6m <= Net Income 89.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-15.1m) to EBITDA (26.1m) ratio: -0.58 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (31.9m) change vs 12m ago 1.70% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 15.09% (prev 10.60%; Δ 4.49pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 174.9% (prev 222.9%; Δ -48.03pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.39 (EBITDA TTM 26.1m / Interest Expense TTM 14.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.17
| (A) 0.26 = (Total Current Assets 221.1m - Total Current Liabilities 132.8m) / Total Assets 340.8m |
| (B) -0.49 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -165.9m / Total Assets 340.8m |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 19.9m / Avg Total Assets 293.4m |
| (D) -0.38 = Book Value of Equity -162.9m / Total Liabilities 431.6m |
| Total Rating: 0.17 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 70.70
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 18.23% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.31% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -0.52 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.58 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 770.5)% |
| 7. RoE -84.65% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 62.81% |
| 9. EPS Trend 23.23% |
What is the price of RAIL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.72%, over one month by +13.06%, over three months by +15.60% and over the past year by -2.00%.
Is RAIL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RAIL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15 | 53.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 53.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.8 | 10.7% |
RAIL Fundamental Data Overview December 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 3.4127
P/E Forward = 16.3132
P/S = 0.3206
P/B = 3.1742
P/EG = -30.08
Beta = 1.667
Revenue TTM = 513.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 19.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 26.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 104.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.15m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 47.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -15.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 149.4m USD (164.5m + Debt 47.6m - CCE 62.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.39 (Ebit TTM 19.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.4m)
FCF Yield = 18.23% (FCF TTM 27.2m / Enterprise Value 149.4m)
FCF Margin = 5.31% (FCF TTM 27.2m / Revenue TTM 513.1m)
Net Margin = 17.40% (Net Income TTM 89.3m / Revenue TTM 513.1m)
Gross Margin = 15.09% ((Revenue TTM 513.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 435.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.08% (prev 15.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 149.4m / Total Assets 340.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.74% (Interest Expense 4.64m / Debt 47.6m)
Taxrate = 1.92% (-146.0k / -7.59m)
NOPAT = 19.6m (EBIT 19.9m * (1 - 1.92%))
Current Ratio = 1.66 (Total Current Assets 221.1m / Total Current Liabilities 132.8m)
Debt / Equity = -0.52 (negative equity) (Debt 47.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -90.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.58 (Net Debt -15.1m / EBITDA 26.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.56 (Net Debt -15.1m / FCF TTM 27.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -105.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 26.21% (Net Income 89.3m / Total Assets 340.8m)
RoE = -84.65% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 89.3m / Total Stockholder Equity -105.5m)
RoCE = -2423 % (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 19.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -105.5m + L.T.Debt 104.7m))
RoIC = 782.0% (NOPAT 19.6m / Invested Capital 2.50m)
WACC = 11.54% (E(164.5m)/V(212.1m) * Re(12.12%) + D(47.6m)/V(212.1m) * Rd(9.74%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 12.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.89%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.54% ; FCFE base≈41.4m ; Y1≈27.2m ; Y5≈12.4m
Fair Price DCF = 7.62 (DCF Value 145.4m / Shares Outstanding 19.1m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 23.23 | EPS CAGR: 2.75% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.81 | Revenue CAGR: 22.49% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.72 | Chg30d=+0.035 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+30.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.6%
Additional Sources for RAIL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle