RARE Stock Analysis: Ultragenyx | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.296m USD | 12M Return: -9.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 62.8M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE) is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with commercial reach spanning North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in Novato, California, and has been listed on the NASDAQ since 2014.
Its approved product portfolio includes Crysvita (an antibody for X-linked hypophosphatemia), Mepsevii (an enzyme replacement therapy for MPS VII), Dojolvi (for long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders), and Evkeeza (for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia). Several of these products are biologics, which are typically derived from living organisms and tend to command premium pricing under orphan drug frameworks that reward development for conditions affecting small patient populations.
The pipeline features candidates in Phase 3 and Phase 2 clinical trials, including UX143 (osteogenesis imperfecta), UX111 (Sanfilippo syndrome type A), DTX401 (glycogen storage disease type Ia), DTX301 (ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency), GTX-102 (Angelman syndrome), UX701 (Wilson disease), and UX053 (glycogen storage disease type III). The company also relies on an extensive partnership model, maintaining collaboration and license agreements with organizations such as Kyowa Kirin, REGENXBIO, Regeneron, Arcturus Therapeutics, the University of Pennsylvania, and others, which is a common approach in the rare disease biotechnology sector to share development risk and cost.
- Crysvita sales accelerate as XLH and TIO approvals expand market
- Phase 3 gene therapy catalysts approach for UX143, DTX401, UX111
- Cash burn widens as multiple late-stage trials advance
| Net Income: -609.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.38 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 49.59% < 20% (prev 68.99%; Δ -19.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.38 > 3% & CFO -496.5m > Net Income -609.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.6m) vs 12m ago 4.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.57% > 18% (prev 85.13%; Δ -1.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.34% > 50% (prev 45.02%; Δ 6.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -7.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM -537.4m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m) |
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 657.0m - Total Current Liabilities 325.0m) / Total Assets 1.30b |
| B: -3.64 (Retained Earnings -4.72b / Total Assets 1.30b) |
| C: -0.41 (EBIT TTM -537.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.30b) |
| D: -0.15 (Book Value of Equity -236.0m / Total Liabilities 1.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -13.12 = D |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 121.0m/98.8m, Revenue 669.4m/590.7m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 85.13% / 83.57%) |
| AQI: 1.15 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 669.4m / 590.7m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -609.4m - CFO -496.5m) / TA 1.30b) |
| Beneish M = -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 35.87 with a total of 4,421,596 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.92%, over one month by +66.14%, over three months by +54.95% and over the past year by -9.44%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.80 (which is 5.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Ultragenyx has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RARE.
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 52.1 | 45.1% |
P/S = 4.9201
P/B = 247.6984
P/EG = -0.24
Revenue TTM = 669.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -537.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -503.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.13b USD (estimated: total debt 1.20b - short term 72.0m)
Short Term Debt = 72.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.24b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 36.0m
Net Debt = 823.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.24b - CCE 413.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.12b USD (3.30b + Debt 1.24b - CCE 413.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.88 (Ebit TTM -537.4m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m)
EV/FCF = -8.46x (Enterprise Value 4.12b / FCF TTM -487.2m)
FCF Yield = -11.83% (FCF TTM -487.2m / Enterprise Value 4.12b)
FCF Margin = -72.78% (FCF TTM -487.2m / Revenue TTM 669.4m)
Net Margin = -91.03% (Net Income TTM -609.4m / Revenue TTM 669.4m)
Gross Margin = 83.57% ((Revenue TTM 669.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 110.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.94% (prev 85.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.18 (Enterprise Value 4.12b / Total Assets 1.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.52% (Interest Expense 68.2m / Debt 1.24b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -424.5m (EBIT -537.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.02 (Total Current Assets 657.0m / Total Current Liabilities 325.0m)
Debt / Equity = -5.24 (negative equity) (Debt 1.24b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -236.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.64 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 823.0m / EBITDA -503.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.69 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 823.0m / FCF TTM -487.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -38.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -46.73% (Net Income -609.4m / Total Assets 1.30b)
RoE = 1.57k% (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -609.4m / Total Stockholder Equity -38.9m)
RoCE = -49.34% (EBIT -537.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -38.9m + L.T.Debt 1.13b))
RoIC = -42.05% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -424.5m / Invested Capital 1.01b)
WACC = 8.70% (E(3.30b)/V(4.53b) * Re(10.33%) + D(1.24b)/V(4.53b) * Rd(5.52%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 10.04%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -487.2m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.96 | Revenue CAGR: 23.24% | SUE: -1.96 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-1.14 | Chg30d=-0.55% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.95 | Chg30d=+6.69% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-4.24 | Chg30d=+4.95% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+27.2% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+122.7% | GrowthRev=+32.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -75% (up=0, down=9)