(RARE) Ultragenyx - Ratings and Ratios
Biologic, Gene Therapy, Antibody, Enzyme Replacement, ASO
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.23% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.56 |
| Alpha | -40.49 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.443 |
| Beta | 0.927 |
| Beta Downside | 0.761 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.68% |
| Mean DD | 22.57% |
| Median DD | 21.14% |
Description: RARE Ultragenyx November 09, 2025
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) is a U.S.–based biopharma focused on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapies for rare and ultra-rare genetic disorders across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
The company’s approved biologics include Crysvita (burosumab) for X-linked hypophosphatemia and tumor-induced osteomalacia, Mepsevii for Mucopolysaccharidosis VII, Dojolvi for long-chain fatty-acid oxidation disorders, and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.
Ultragenyx’s late-stage pipeline features several Phase 3 candidates: UX143 (osteogenesis imperfecta), UX111 (AAV9 gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome type A), DTX401 (AAV8 gene therapy for glycogen storage disease type Ia), DTX301 (AAV8 gene therapy for ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency), and GTX-102 (antisense oligonucleotide for Angelman syndrome). Additional mid-stage assets include UX701 (Wilson disease) and UX053 (glycogen storage disease type III).
The firm maintains a broad network of collaborations and licensing agreements with entities such as Kyowa Kirin, Regeneron, REGENXBIO, and Arcturus Therapeutics, leveraging external expertise to accelerate its rare-disease portfolio.
Key financial and market metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion, cash and equivalents stood at $1.6 billion, and the company reported a net loss of $210 million, reflecting continued R&D investment. The global rare-disease therapeutics market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~10% through 2030, driven by expanding orphan-drug incentives and increasing diagnostic rates-factors that underpin Ultragenyx’s growth outlook.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Ultragenyx’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform offers a detailed, data-driven dashboard.
RARE Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 3,191m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 2014-01-31 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -39.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.60 of 5 |
RARE Dividends
Currently no dividends paidRARE Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -4.47% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.08 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.20 |
| Current Volume | 1028.3k |
| Average Volume | 1188k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-579.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 37.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.38 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -9.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 48.08% (prev 98.44%; Δ -50.36pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.37 (>3.0%) and CFO -445.7m > Net Income -579.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.89 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (99.8m) change vs 12m ago 4.48% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 84.69% (prev 86.25%; Δ -1.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 46.22% (prev 33.98%; Δ 12.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -8.93 (EBITDA TTM -483.4m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -16.87
| (A) 0.25 = (Total Current Assets 643.2m - Total Current Liabilities 340.0m) / Total Assets 1.19b |
| (B) -3.70 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -4.40b / Total Assets 1.19b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -3.70 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.38 = EBIT TTM -518.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.36b |
| (D) -3.74 = Book Value of Equity -4.39b / Total Liabilities 1.17b |
| Total Rating: -16.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 36.42
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -12.44% |
| 3. FCF Margin -71.58% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 94.24 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.37 |
| 7. RoE -414.2% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 89.39% |
| 9. EPS Trend 74.40% |
What is the price of RARE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.23%, over one month by -9.36%, over three months by +6.20% and over the past year by -32.80%.
Is RARE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 13
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RARE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 84.1 | 169.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 84.1 | 169.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.2 | -3.1% |
RARE Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
P/S = 5.061
P/B = 346.7673
P/EG = -0.24
Beta = 0.163
Revenue TTM = 630.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -518.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -483.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 33.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 77.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 863.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 660.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.63b USD (3.19b + Debt 863.1m - CCE 425.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.93 (Ebit TTM -518.7m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)
FCF Yield = -12.44% (FCF TTM -451.4m / Enterprise Value 3.63b)
FCF Margin = -71.58% (FCF TTM -451.4m / Revenue TTM 630.6m)
Net Margin = -91.95% (Net Income TTM -579.8m / Revenue TTM 630.6m)
Gross Margin = 84.69% ((Revenue TTM 630.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 96.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.50% (prev 86.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.05 (Enterprise Value 3.63b / Total Assets 1.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 14.1m / Debt 863.1m)
Taxrate = -0.49% (negative due to tax credits) (873.0k / -179.5m)
NOPAT = -521.2m (EBIT -518.7m * (1 - -0.49%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.89 (Total Current Assets 643.2m / Total Current Liabilities 340.0m)
Debt / Equity = 94.24 (Debt 863.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.16m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.37 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 660.6m / EBITDA -483.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.46 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 660.6m / FCF TTM -451.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 140.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -48.71% (Net Income -579.8m / Total Assets 1.19b)
RoE = -414.2% (Net Income TTM -579.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 140.0m)
RoCE = -298.4% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -518.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 140.0m + L.T.Debt 33.8m))
RoIC = -372.3% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -521.2m / Invested Capital 140.0m)
WACC = 7.77% (E(3.19b)/V(4.05b) * Re(9.43%) + D(863.1m)/V(4.05b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.02%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -451.4m)
EPS Correlation: 74.40 | EPS CAGR: 29.42% | SUE: -3.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.39 | Revenue CAGR: 17.21% | SUE: -0.62 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for RARE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle