(RARE) Ultragenyx - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.211m USD | Total Return: -34.1% in 12m

Antibodies, Enzyme Therapies, Gene Therapies, Synthetic Oils
Total Rating 16
Safety 38
Buy Signal -1.21
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -8.2
Market Cap: 2.21B
Avg Turnover: 39.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility55.4%
VaR 5th Pctl8.82%
VaR vs Median-3.71%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Rel. Str. IBD11.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group9.8
Character TTM
Beta1.243
Beta Downside0.903
Hurst Exponent0.464
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD68.83%
CAGR/Max DD-0.32
CAGR/Mean DD-0.73
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of RARE over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -2.03, "2021-06": -1.81, "2021-09": -1.08, "2021-12": -1.79, "2022-03": -2.19, "2022-06": -2.26, "2022-09": -3.5, "2022-12": -2.16, "2023-03": -2.33, "2023-06": -2.25, "2023-09": -2.23, "2023-12": -1.52, "2024-03": -2.03, "2024-06": -1.52, "2024-09": -1.4, "2024-12": -1.39, "2025-03": -1.57, "2025-06": -1.17, "2025-09": -1.81, "2025-12": -1.29, "2026-03": -1.5408,
Last SUE: -0.76
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of RARE over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 99.395, 2021-06: 86.975, 2021-09: 81.647, 2021-12: 83.389, 2022-03: 79.935, 2022-06: 89.343, 2022-09: 90.703, 2022-12: 103.348, 2023-03: 100.496, 2023-06: 108.309, 2023-09: 98.052, 2023-12: 127.392, 2024-03: 108.833, 2024-06: 147.026, 2024-09: 139.494, 2024-12: 164.877, 2025-03: 139.292, 2025-06: 166.496, 2025-09: 159.933, 2025-12: 207, 2026-03: 136,
Rev. CAGR: 23.24%
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Last SUE: -1.96
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Negative Equity with losses - insolvent profile

Interest Coverage Ratio -8.0 is critical

Altman Z'' -15.00 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: RARE Ultragenyx

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic disorders. Its current commercial portfolio includes biologic therapies such as Crysvita for X-linked hypophosphatemia, Mepsevii for Mucopolysaccharidosis VII, and Dojolvi for fatty acid oxidation disorders. The company leverages a business model focused on orphan drug designations, which provide extended market exclusivity and specialized regulatory pathways due to the high unmet medical need in small patient populations.

The company maintains a robust clinical pipeline with multiple Phase 3 candidates, including gene therapies (UX111, DTX401, DTX301) and monoclonal antibodies (UX143). These programs utilize diverse modalities such as adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors and antisense oligonucleotides. To manage the high cost of specialized R&D, Ultragenyx utilizes an extensive network of collaborations with academic institutions and peer firms like Regeneron and Kyowa Kirin.

Investors looking for deeper financial metrics and valuation models should consult ValueRay to further their analysis. Headquartered in Novato, California, the company operates globally across North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Crysvita royalty revenue and commercial sales growth drive core quarterly earnings results
  • Clinical data readouts for Angelman syndrome and gene therapy pipelines impact valuation
  • Regulatory approval timelines for Phase 3 candidates determine long-term revenue diversification
  • High research and development expenses continue to influence path toward profitability
  • Strategic partnerships and licensing agreements provide essential non-dilutive capital and infrastructure
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -609.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.38 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 49.59% < 20% (prev 68.99%; Δ -19.39% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.38 > 3% & CFO -496.5m > Net Income -609.4m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.02 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.6m) vs 12m ago 4.48% < -2%
Gross Margin: 83.57% > 18% (prev 0.85%; Δ 8.27k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 51.34% > 50% (prev 45.02%; Δ 6.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -8.04 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -514.3m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m)
Altman Z'' -15.00
A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 657.0m - Total Current Liabilities 325.0m) / Total Assets 1.30b
B: -3.64 (Retained Earnings -4.72b / Total Assets 1.30b)
C: -0.42 (EBIT TTM -548.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.30b)
D: -3.09 (Book Value of Equity -4.71b / Total Liabilities 1.52b)
Altman-Z'' = -16.25 = D
Beneish M -2.85
DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 121.0m/98.8m, Revenue 669.4m/590.7m)
GMI: 1.02 (GM 83.57% / 85.13%)
AQI: 1.15 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.27)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 669.4m / 590.7m)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -609.4m - CFO -496.5m) / TA 1.30b)
Beneish M = -2.85 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of RARE shares?

As of May 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.71 with a total of 1,261,914 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.44%, over one month by -4.96%, over three months by +3.91% and over the past year by -34.13%.

Is RARE a buy, sell or hold?

Ultragenyx has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RARE.

  • StrongBuy: 13
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the RARE price?
Analysts Target Price 51.5 117.3%
Ultragenyx (RARE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 May 2026
P/S = 3.3001
P/B = 247.6984
P/EG = -0.24
Revenue TTM = 669.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -548.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -514.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.13b USD (estimated: total debt 1.20b - short term 72.0m)
Short Term Debt = 72.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.24b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 36.0m
Net Debt = 823.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.24b - CCE 413.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.03b USD (2.21b + Debt 1.24b - CCE 413.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.04 (Ebit TTM -548.4m / Interest Expense TTM 68.2m)
EV/FCF = -6.23x (Enterprise Value 3.03b / FCF TTM -487.2m)
FCF Yield = -16.06% (FCF TTM -487.2m / Enterprise Value 3.03b)
FCF Margin = -72.78% (FCF TTM -487.2m / Revenue TTM 669.4m)
Net Margin = -91.03% (Net Income TTM -609.4m / Revenue TTM 669.4m)
Gross Margin = 83.57% ((Revenue TTM 669.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 110.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.94% (prev 85.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.34 (Enterprise Value 3.03b / Total Assets 1.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.52% (Interest Expense 68.2m / Debt 1.24b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -433.2m (EBIT -548.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.02 (Total Current Assets 657.0m / Total Current Liabilities 325.0m)
 Debt / Equity = -5.24 (negative equity) (Debt 1.24b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -236.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -1.60 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 823.0m / EBITDA -514.3m)
 Debt / FCF = -1.69 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 823.0m / FCF TTM -487.2m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = -38.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -46.73% (Net Income -609.4m / Total Assets 1.30b)
RoE = -13.03% (Net Income TTM -609.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.68b)
RoCE = -9.44% (EBIT -548.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.68b + L.T.Debt 1.13b))
 RoIC = -41.57% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -433.2m / Invested Capital 1.04b)
 WACC = 8.21% (E(2.21b)/V(3.45b) * Re(10.36%) + D(1.24b)/V(3.45b) * Rd(5.52%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 10.04%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -487.2m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.96 | Revenue CAGR: 23.24% | SUE: -1.96 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-1.22 | Chg30d=-8.41% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.07 | Chg30d=-7.74% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-4.57 | Chg30d=-3.74% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+21.7% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=+328.68% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+107.6% | GrowthRev=+33.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%