(RCAT) Red Cat Holdings - NASDAQ
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.702m USD | Total Return: 56.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 186M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 61.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Share dilution 41.3% YoY
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Choppy Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) specializes in the design and manufacture of tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and robotic solutions tailored for defense and national security. Its product portfolio includes the BLACK WIDOW reconnaissance drone, the TEAL 2 military-grade UAS, and the EDGE 130, a long-endurance fixed-wing aircraft designed for intelligence and surveillance operations. The company also develops uncrewed surface vessel weapons systems and FPV drones for tactical intelligence.
The company operates within the Blue UAS framework, a Department of Defense initiative designed to provide secure, NDAA-compliant drone technology to federal agencies. This sector is characterized by high barriers to entry due to stringent cybersecurity requirements and the transition toward attritable, low-cost autonomous systems in modern electronic warfare. Investors may find additional context on these industry trends by reviewing the data at ValueRay.
Based in South Salt Lake, Utah, Red Cat Holdings focuses on integrating artificial intelligence software into small UAS to enhance battlefield awareness. Its business model relies on government contracts and commercial applications for industrial inspectors and emergency responders.
- Selection for U.S. Army Short Range Reconnaissance program drives multi-year revenue
- Scaling production of Teal 2 and Black Widow drones impacts gross margins
- Geopolitical conflict intensity increases demand for low-cost tactical unmanned aircraft systems
- Department of Defense Blue UAS compliance provides competitive moat against Chinese manufacturers
- Transition from development phase to high-volume manufacturing requires significant working capital investment
| Net Income: -75.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.42 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 33.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 349.2% < 20% (prev 8.26%; Δ 341.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.37 > 3% & CFO -105.2m > Net Income -75.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 10.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (120.8m) vs 12m ago 41.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.50% > 18% (prev -39.17%; Δ 46.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.96% > 50% (prev 10.27%; Δ 21.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 209.7m - Total Current Liabilities 19.1m) / Total Assets 281.9m |
| B: -0.79 (Retained Earnings -223.4m / Total Assets 281.9m) |
| C: -0.44 (EBIT TTM -75.7m / Avg Total Assets 170.8m) |
| D: 5.53 (Book Value of Equity 238.7m / Total Liabilities 43.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.68 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.76 (Receivables 10.6m/1.55m, Revenue 54.6m/6.13m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.37 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.44) |
| SGI: 8.90 (Revenue 54.6m / 6.13m) |
| TATA: 0.11 (NI -75.5m - CFO -105.2m) / TA 281.9m) |
| Beneish M = 2.08 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of June 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.44 with a total of 22,901,951 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.75%,
over one month by +28.11%,
over three months by -32.71% and
over the past year by +56.82%.
Red Cat Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RCAT.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | 92.3% |
P/S = 31.1803
P/B = 7.1271
Revenue TTM = 54.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -75.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -73.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.3m USD (estimated: total debt 13.8m - short term 1.48m)
Short Term Debt = 1.48m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 13.4m already included)
Net Debt = -118.1m USD (calculated: Debt 13.8m - CCE 131.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.58b USD (1.70b + Debt 13.8m - CCE 131.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -75.7m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = -13.38x (Enterprise Value 1.58b / FCF TTM -118.3m)
FCF Yield = -7.47% (FCF TTM -118.3m / Enterprise Value 1.58b)
FCF Margin = -216.8% (FCF TTM -118.3m / Revenue TTM 54.6m)
Net Margin = -138.4% (Net Income TTM -75.5m / Revenue TTM 54.6m)
Gross Margin = 7.50% ((Revenue TTM 54.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 50.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.70% (prev 4.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.62 (Enterprise Value 1.58b / Total Assets 281.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 13.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -59.8m (EBIT -75.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 10.99 (Total Current Assets 209.7m / Total Current Liabilities 19.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 13.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 238.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.61 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -118.1m / EBITDA -73.2m)
Debt / FCF = 1.00 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -118.1m / FCF TTM -118.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 208.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -44.21% (Net Income -75.5m / Total Assets 281.9m)
RoE = -36.24% (Net Income TTM -75.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 208.4m)
RoCE = -34.31% (EBIT -75.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 208.4m + L.T.Debt 12.3m))
RoIC = -22.87% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -59.8m / Invested Capital 261.6m)
WACC = 15.25% (E(1.70b)/V(1.72b) * Re(15.37%) + D(13.8m)/V(1.72b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.89 | Cagr: 41.10%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -118.3m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.82 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 61.47 | Revenue CAGR: 61.36% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.14 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.43 | Chg30d=-43.33% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+38.8% | GrowthRev=+280.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.36 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+16.3% | GrowthRev=+42.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%