REAL Stock Analysis: TheRealReal | NASDAQ
Luxury Goods | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.264m USD | 12M Return: -6.4% | US88339P1012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.4M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 96.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The RealReal, Inc. (NASDAQ: REAL) operates an online marketplace for resale luxury goods, serving customers worldwide. Its product offerings span womens and mens fashion, jewelry, and watches, distributed through its website, online marketplace, mobile app, and physical retail stores. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California, and has been publicly traded since its June 2019 IPO.
As a player in the apparel retail sub-industry, The RealReal operates within the resale and consignment segment of the broader luxury market, sourcing pre-owned authenticated goods from consignors and reselling them to buyers. This consignment-based business model distinguishes it from traditional luxury retailers, as inventory is largely supplied by individual consignors rather than purchased wholesale from brands.
- Active buyer growth accelerates as luxury resale demand recovers
- Gross margin expansion drives path to adjusted EBITDA profitability
- Competition intensifies from Vestiaire Collective and department store resale programs
| Net Income: -81.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.36% < 20% (prev -6.15%; Δ 0.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 53.8m > Net Income -81.1m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (121.0m) vs 12m ago 1.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.33% > 18% (prev 74.65%; Δ -2.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 206.1% > 50% (prev 182.3%; Δ 23.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM -51.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.9m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 193.3m - Total Current Liabilities 233.5m) / Total Assets 378.3m |
| B: -3.39 (Retained Earnings -1.28b / Total Assets 378.3m) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -51.9m / Avg Total Assets 363.8m) |
| D: -0.50 (Book Value of Equity -377.7m / Total Liabilities 756.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -13.24 = D |
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 20.1m/22.8m, Revenue 749.9m/637.0m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 74.65% / 72.33%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 749.9m / 637.0m) |
| TATA: -0.36 (NI -81.1m - CFO 53.8m) / TA 378.3m) |
| Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.96 with a total of 2,467,290 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.72%, over one month by +13.52%, over three months by -4.78% and over the past year by -6.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.30 (which is 6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
TheRealReal has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.56. Therefore, it is recommended to buy REAL.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18 | 64.2% |
P/E Forward = 38.1679
P/S = 1.6858
P/B = 4.839
Revenue TTM = 749.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -51.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -19.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 375.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 23.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 550.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 87.5m
Net Debt = 431.7m USD (calculated: Debt 550.8m - CCE 119.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.70b USD (1.26b + Debt 550.8m - CCE 119.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.80 (Ebit TTM -51.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.9m)
EV/FCF = 56.20x (Enterprise Value 1.70b / FCF TTM 30.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.78% (FCF TTM 30.2m / Enterprise Value 1.70b)
FCF Margin = 4.02% (FCF TTM 30.2m / Revenue TTM 749.9m)
Net Margin = -10.82% (Net Income TTM -81.1m / Revenue TTM 749.9m)
Gross Margin = 72.33% ((Revenue TTM 749.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 207.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.36% (prev 70.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.48 (Enterprise Value 1.70b / Total Assets 378.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.24% (Interest Expense 28.9m / Debt 550.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.0m (EBIT -51.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 193.3m / Total Current Liabilities 233.5m)
Debt / Equity = -1.46 (negative equity) (Debt 550.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -377.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.06 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 431.7m / EBITDA -19.6m)
Debt / FCF = 14.31 (Net Debt 431.7m / FCF TTM 30.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -384.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.30% (Net Income -81.1m / Total Assets 378.3m)
RoE = 21.10% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -81.1m / Total Stockholder Equity -384.4m)
RoCE = 602.3% (negative capital employed) (EBIT -51.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -384.4m + L.T.Debt 375.8m))
RoIC = -31.41% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.0m / Invested Capital 130.4m)
WACC = 9.51% (E(1.26b)/V(1.81b) * Re(11.85%) + D(550.8m)/V(1.81b) * Rd(5.24%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.58 | Cagr: 6.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.47% ; FCFF base≈30.2m ; Y1≈30.3m ; Y5≈32.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 416.9m - Net Debt 431.7m = -14.8m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.67 | Revenue CAGR: 12.27% | SUE: 1.86 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+1.61% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+184.1% | GrowthRev=+14.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+4.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+201.3% | GrowthRev=+11.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)