RIVN Stock Analysis: Rivian Automotive | NASDAQ

Electric Pickups, Sport Utilities, Delivery Vans, Charging Networks

Total Rating 16

Safety 23

Buy Signal -0.79

Auto Manufacturers
Industry Rotation: -12.4

Market Cap: 19.4B
Avg Turnover: 361M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility64.7%

VaR 5^th Pctl10.4%

VaR vs Median-2.38%

Choppyness72.9%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.26

Rel. Str. IBD12.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group39.6

Character TTM

Beta1.910

Beta Downside2.146

Hurst Exponent0.428

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD65.50%

CAGR/Max DD-0.16

CAGR/Mean DD-0.27

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 1.01
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 12.68%
Rev. Trend: 87.1%

Last SUE: 0.68
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 4.9 years of data

Jan -16.2% 22

Feb -1.3% 19

Mar -4.7% 22

Apr -6.6% 0

May +8.9% 22

Jun +7.2% 22

Jul +10.1% 0

Aug -6.8% 0

Sep +2.7% 13

Oct -12.2% 38

Nov +9.7% 23

Dec +13.8% 24

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: RIVN Rivian Automotive

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is a U.S.-based electric vehicle manufacturer that designs, produces, and sells consumer-oriented EVs through two reporting segments: Automotive and Software and Services. Its consumer vehicle lineup includes the R1T, a two-row, five-passenger electric pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row, seven-passenger electric sport utility vehicle.

The companys Software and Services segment generates supporting revenue through vehicle electrical architecture and software development, Autonomy+ features, remarketing, repair and maintenance, software subscriptions, accessories, and financing and insurance products. It also operates the Rivian Adventure Network of DC fast chargers and FleetOS, a proprietary fleet management subscription platform for commercial operators.

Rivian also offers an Electric Delivery Van built on its Commercial Van platform, developed in collaboration with Amazon.com, Inc. The company was founded in 2009, is headquartered in Irvine, California, and completed its IPO on November 10, 2021. As an automobile manufacturer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Rivian competes primarily in the premium electric vehicle market, a segment that has seen intensifying competition as legacy automakers and new entrants expand their EV offerings.

Headlines to Watch Out For

R1S and R1T deliveries drive automotive segment revenue growth
Amazon EDV contract anchors commercial van fleet backlog
Cash burn rate and capital needs pressure equity valuation

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0

Net Income: -3.23b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -15.22 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 67.96% < 20% (prev 139.3%; Δ -71.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.12 > 3% & CFO -1.84b > Net Income -3.23b
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.10 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.29b) vs 12m ago 11.43% < -2%
Gross Margin: 7.51% > 18% (prev -4.31%; Δ 11.82% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 38.28% > 50% (prev 33.03%; Δ 5.25% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM -2.96b / Interest Expense TTM 266.0m)

Altman Z'' -5.10

A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 7.62b - Total Current Liabilities 3.62b) / Total Assets 15.1b
B: -1.86 (Retained Earnings -28.2b / Total Assets 15.1b)
C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -2.96b / Avg Total Assets 15.4b)
D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 5.13b / Total Liabilities 10.0b)
Altman-Z'' = -5.10 = D

Beneish M -1.94

DSRI: 1.28 (Receivables 370.0m/254.0m, Revenue 5.88b/5.15b)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 2.30 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.04)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 5.88b / 5.15b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -3.23b - CFO -1.84b) / TA 15.1b)
Beneish M = -1.94 (Cap -4..+1) = B

What is the price of RIVN shares?

As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.95 with a total of 23,581,407 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.69%, over one month by -18.35%, over three months by -26.00% and over the past year by -1.30%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.20 (which is 5.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is RIVN a buy, sell or hold?

Rivian Automotive has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.48. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RIVN.

StrongBuy: 8
Buy: 4
Hold: 8
Sell: 2
StrongSell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the RIVN price?

Analysts Target Price	19	46.7%

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 15 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 19.4b (19.4b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 3.2905
P/B = 4.2931
Revenue TTM = 5.88b USD
EBIT TTM = -2.96b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 117.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 909.0m
Net Debt = 952.0m USD (calculated: Debt 6.26b - CCE 5.31b)
Enterprise Value = 20.3b USD (19.4b + Debt 6.26b - CCE 5.31b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.12 (Ebit TTM -2.96b / Interest Expense TTM 266.0m)
EV/FCF = -5.82x (Enterprise Value 20.3b / FCF TTM -3.49b)
FCF Yield = -17.18% (FCF TTM -3.49b / Enterprise Value 20.3b)
FCF Margin = -59.31% (FCF TTM -3.49b / Revenue TTM 5.88b)
Net Margin = -54.95% (Net Income TTM -3.23b / Revenue TTM 5.88b)
Gross Margin = 7.51% ((Revenue TTM 5.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.80% (prev 8.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.34 (Enterprise Value 20.3b / Total Assets 15.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.25% (Interest Expense 266.0m / Debt 6.26b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.34b (EBIT -2.96b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.10 (Total Current Assets 7.62b / Total Current Liabilities 3.62b)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 6.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.45 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 952.0m / EBITDA -2.14b)
Debt / FCF = -0.27 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 952.0m / FCF TTM -3.49b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.04% (Net Income -3.23b / Total Assets 15.1b)
RoE = -67.49% (Net Income TTM -3.23b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.79b)
RoCE = -32.03% (EBIT -2.96b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.79b + L.T.Debt 4.44b))
RoIC = -20.60% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.34b / Invested Capital 11.3b)
WACC = 10.42% (E(19.4b)/V(25.6b) * Re(12.70%) + D(6.26b)/V(25.6b) * Rd(4.25%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.65 | Cagr: 12.98%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -3.49b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.01 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.05 | Revenue CAGR: 12.68% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.72 | Chg30d=+1.41% | Revisions=-8% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.43 | Chg30d=+0.39% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+20.8% | GrowthRev=+38.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-2.21 | Chg30d=-1.91% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+9.1% | GrowthRev=+57.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +5% (up=9, down=8)