RKLB Stock Analysis: Rocket Lab USA | NASDAQ

Aerospace & Defense | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 62.769m USD | 12M Return: 110.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Launch Vehicles, Spacecraft, Space Systems, Optical
Total Rating 55
Safety 89
Buy Signal -0.86
Aerospace & Defense
Industry Rotation: -4.4
Market Cap: 62.8B
Avg Turnover: 2.74B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility105%
VaR 5th Pctl17.2%
VaR vs Median-0.78%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.21
Rel. Str. IBD84.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group81.1
Character TTM
Beta3.259
Beta Downside2.074
Hurst Exponent0.443
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD55.49%
CAGR/Max DD2.41
CAGR/Mean DD5.44
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of RKLB over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.21, "2021-09": -0.39, "2021-12": 0.01, "2022-03": -0.06, "2022-06": -0.08, "2022-09": -0.07, "2022-12": -0.08, "2023-03": -0.1, "2023-06": -0.05, "2023-09": -0.08, "2023-12": -0.1, "2024-03": -0.09, "2024-06": -0.08, "2024-09": -0.1, "2024-12": -0.1, "2025-03": -0.12, "2025-06": -0.13, "2025-09": -0.03, "2025-12": -0.1, "2026-03": -0.07,
Last SUE: 0.34
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of RKLB over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 11.28, 2021-09: 5.287, 2021-12: 27.478, 2022-03: 40.703, 2022-06: 55.474, 2022-09: 63.057, 2022-12: 51.762, 2023-03: 54.895, 2023-06: 62.045, 2023-09: 67.661, 2023-12: 59.991, 2024-03: 92.767, 2024-06: 106.251, 2024-09: 104.808, 2024-12: 132.388, 2025-03: 122.569, 2025-06: 144.498, 2025-09: 155.08, 2025-12: 179.652, 2026-03: 200.348,
Rev. CAGR: 52.39%
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Last SUE: 3.35
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Volatile
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 5.6 years of data

Jan -3.0% 10
Feb -2.3% 10
Mar -10.6% 46
Apr +7.5% 13
May +21.6% 34
Jun +14.3% 13
Jul +14.8% 53
Aug +4.5% 0
Sep -12.8% 25
Oct +7.3% 43
Nov +7.0% 11
Dec +3.3% 10

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: RKLB Rocket Lab USA

Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) is a U.S.-based space company headquartered in Long Beach, California, that operates through two segments: launch services and space systems. The company provides end-to-end space solutions including launch services, spacecraft design and manufacturing, optical systems, on-orbit management, and constellation management services, serving commercial, aerospace prime contractor, and government customers across the United States, Canada, Japan, and other international markets.

The company is notable for its vertically integrated business model, designing and manufacturing much of its own hardware in-house, including small and medium-class rockets. Its flagship operational vehicle is the Electron, an orbital small launch vehicle, while the Neutron launch vehicle is in development for larger constellation deployments, interplanetary missions, and potentially human spaceflight. This dual-segment approach pairs rocket manufacturing with a growing space systems business that supplies components, subsystems, and software to other space operators.

Rocket Lab was founded in 2006 and completed its IPO on the Nasdaq on August 24, 2021, the same year it changed its corporate name from Rocket Lab USA, Inc. to Rocket Lab Corporation. It is classified within the GICS Industrials sector, under Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components, reflecting its combined profile as both an aerospace launch provider and a manufacturer of space-grade hardware.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Neutron rocket development progresses toward maiden flight
  • Space Systems revenue scales with government satellite component orders
  • Launch cadence and backlog drive launch services growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -182.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.90 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 205.7% < 20% (prev 80.84%; Δ 124.9% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -161.6m > Net Income -182.6m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 4.47 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (605.4m) vs 12m ago 19.74% < -2%
Gross Margin: 36.56% > 18% (prev 27.30%; Δ 9.26% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 33.35% > 50% (prev 37.13%; Δ -3.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -21.83 > 6 (EBIT TTM -202.0m / Interest Expense TTM 9.25m)
Altman Z'' 5.64
A: 0.50 (Total Current Assets 1.80b - Total Current Liabilities 402.3m) / Total Assets 2.82b
B: -0.37 (Retained Earnings -1.06b / Total Assets 2.82b)
C: -0.10 (EBIT TTM -202.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.04b)
D: 4.08 (Book Value of Equity 2.26b / Total Liabilities 555.6m)
Altman-Z'' = 5.64 = AAA
Beneish M -2.93
DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 175.2m/122.5m, Revenue 679.6m/466.0m)
GMI: 0.75 (GM 27.30% / 36.56%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 1.46 (Revenue 679.6m / 466.0m)
TATA: -0.01 (NI -182.6m - CFO -161.6m) / TA 2.82b)
Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of RKLB shares?

As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 82.55 with a total of 17,167,920 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -17.51%, over one month by -23.73%, over three months by +23.69% and over the past year by +110.91%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 69.40 (which is 15.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is RKLB a buy, sell or hold?

Rocket Lab USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RKLB.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the RKLB price?
Analysts Target Price 114.1 38.2%
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 07 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 62.8b (62.8b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 92.3651
P/B = 27.7205
Revenue TTM = 679.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -202.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -151.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 38.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 238.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 100.1m
Net Debt = -1.14b USD (calculated: Debt 238.8m - CCE 1.38b)
Enterprise Value = 61.6b USD (62.8b + Debt 238.8m - CCE 1.38b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -21.83 (Ebit TTM -202.0m / Interest Expense TTM 9.25m)
EV/FCF = -194.8x (Enterprise Value 61.6b / FCF TTM -316.3m)
FCF Yield = -0.51% (FCF TTM -316.3m / Enterprise Value 61.6b)
FCF Margin = -46.54% (FCF TTM -316.3m / Revenue TTM 679.6m)
Net Margin = -26.87% (Net Income TTM -182.6m / Revenue TTM 679.6m)
Gross Margin = 36.56% ((Revenue TTM 679.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 431.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.18% (prev 37.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 21.85 (Enterprise Value 61.6b / Total Assets 2.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.88% (Interest Expense 9.25m / Debt 238.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -159.6m (EBIT -202.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.47 (Total Current Assets 1.80b / Total Current Liabilities 402.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 238.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.26b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 7.53 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.14b / EBITDA -151.9m)
 Debt / FCF = 3.62 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.14b / FCF TTM -316.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.49b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.96% (Net Income -182.6m / Total Assets 2.82b)
RoE = -12.26% (Net Income TTM -182.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.49b)
RoCE = -13.23% (EBIT -202.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.49b + L.T.Debt 38.6m))
 RoIC = -6.70% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -159.6m / Invested Capital 2.38b)
 WACC = 17.40% (E(62.8b)/V(63.0b) * Re(17.45%) + D(238.8m)/V(63.0b) * Rd(3.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 17.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 10.16%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -316.3m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.31 | Revenue CAGR: 52.39% | SUE: 3.35 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=-1.43% | Revisions=-44% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+3.69% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+0.71% | Revisions=-55% | GrowthEPS=+32.2% | GrowthRev=+52.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+43.45% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+90.7% | GrowthRev=+41.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -46% (up=6, down=19)