RUN Stock Analysis: Sunrun | NASDAQ
Solar | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.094m USD | 12M Return: -43.8% | US86771W1053 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 75.2M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 69.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is a U.S.-based provider of residential solar energy systems, offering end-to-end services including design, development, installation, ownership, and maintenance of solar installations primarily for homeowners. Beyond core panel and racking sales, the company bundles battery storage with solar systems and extends its services to commercial developers via multi-family and new home projects, while also operating distributed electricity power plants. Sunrun sells its products through a multi-channel direct-to-consumer approach-including online, retail, mass media, canvassing, and partner referrals-and sells solar leads generated to customers.
As the largest residential solar installer in the United States, Sunrun benefits from rising consumer adoption of rooftop solar and energy storage, supported by federal incentives such as the Investment Tax Credit. The company was founded in 2007, is headquartered in San Francisco, and went public on NASDAQ in August 2015.
- Rising interest rates pressure solar loan demand
- IRA tax credits extend residential solar growth runway
- California net metering changes compress installation margins
| Net Income: 79.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.50% < 20% (prev 24.29%; Δ -5.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -189.5m > Net Income 79.6m |
| Net Debt (14.6b) to EBITDA (840.6m): 17.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (274.0m) vs 12m ago 4.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.54% > 18% (prev 18.52%; Δ 16.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.59% > 50% (prev 10.03%; Δ 5.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM 92.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2.17b - Total Current Liabilities 1.52b) / Total Assets 23.4b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -3.55b / Total Assets 23.4b) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 92.3m / Avg Total Assets 22.3b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 3.49b / Total Liabilities 18.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.08 = B |
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 235.4m/186.5m, Revenue 3.48b/2.13b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 18.52% / 34.54%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.63 (Revenue 3.48b / 2.13b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 79.6m - CFO -189.5m) / TA 23.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.96 with a total of 9,127,601 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.86%, over one month by -14.09%, over three months by -41.25% and over the past year by -43.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.30 (which is 7.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Sunrun has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RUN.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 16 | 78.2% |
P/E Trailing = 5.9728
P/E Forward = 9.058
P/S = 0.6084
P/B = 0.6252
P/EG = 3.0706
Revenue TTM = 3.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 92.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 840.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 14.6b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 536.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 72.8m
Net Debt = 14.6b USD (calculated: Debt 15.3b - CCE 712.4m)
Enterprise Value = 16.7b USD (2.09b + Debt 15.3b - CCE 712.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.09 (Ebit TTM 92.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b)
EV/FCF = -12.23x (Enterprise Value 16.7b / FCF TTM -1.36b)
FCF Yield = -8.17% (FCF TTM -1.36b / Enterprise Value 16.7b)
FCF Margin = -39.18% (FCF TTM -1.36b / Revenue TTM 3.48b)
Net Margin = 2.29% (Net Income TTM 79.6m / Revenue TTM 3.48b)
Gross Margin = 34.54% ((Revenue TTM 3.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.73% (prev 30.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 16.7b / Total Assets 23.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.88% (Interest Expense 1.05b / Debt 15.3b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 72.9m (EBIT 92.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 2.17b / Total Current Liabilities 1.52b)
Debt / Equity = 4.38 (Debt 15.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.49b)
Debt / EBITDA = 17.33 (Net Debt 14.6b / EBITDA 840.6m)
Debt / FCF = -10.70 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14.6b / FCF TTM -1.36b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.36% (Net Income 79.6m / Total Assets 23.4b)
RoE = 2.46% (Net Income TTM 79.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.24b)
RoCE = 0.52% (EBIT 92.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.24b + L.T.Debt 14.6b))
RoIC = 0.33% (NOPAT 72.9m / Invested Capital 22.2b)
WACC = 6.66% (E(2.09b)/V(17.4b) * Re(15.63%) + D(15.3b)/V(17.4b) * Rd(6.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.97 | Cagr: 10.27%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.36b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.72 | Revenue CAGR: 15.65% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+103.80% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+18.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-16.3% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.11 | Chg30d=+9.08% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-22.5% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=3, down=7)