RUN Stock Analysis: Sunrun | NASDAQ
Solar | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.734m USD | 12M Return: -61.9% | US86771W1053 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 60.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 69.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is a U.S.-based company specializing in residential solar energy solutions, including the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of solar systems. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in San Francisco, California, Sunrun also offers battery storage, sells solar leads, and provides services to commercial developers through multi-family and new home projects. Its primary customers are residential homeowners, and it markets its products via a direct-to-consumer approach, utilizing online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, referral channels, and partner networks. In addition to its core solar business, Sunrun operates distributed electricity power plants, positioning it within the broader renewable energy and distributed generation sectors.
Sunrun is part of the residential solar industry, which has experienced significant growth in recent years as homeowners seek alternatives to traditional utility power. The companys business model often includes leasing or power purchase agreements (PPAs), allowing customers to access solar energy with little to no upfront costs, while Sunrun retains ownership of the systems and benefits from long-term energy revenue streams.
- Interest rate hikes pressure solar lease economics and borrowing costs
- Net metering policy changes threaten California and key state margins
- Battery storage attachment rates drive higher customer lifetime value
| Net Income: 79.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.50% < 20% (prev 24.29%; Δ -5.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -189.5m > Net Income 79.6m |
| Net Debt (14.6b) to EBITDA (886.1m): 16.44 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (274.0m) vs 12m ago 4.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.54% > 18% (prev 18.52%; Δ 16.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.59% > 50% (prev 10.03%; Δ 5.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 137.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2.17b - Total Current Liabilities 1.52b) / Total Assets 23.4b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -3.55b / Total Assets 23.4b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 137.8m / Avg Total Assets 22.3b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 3.49b / Total Liabilities 18.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.07 = B |
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 235.4m/186.5m, Revenue 3.48b/2.13b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 18.52% / 34.54%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.63 (Revenue 3.48b / 2.13b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 79.6m - CFO -189.5m) / TA 23.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.48 with a total of 9,884,818 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.32%, over one month by -3.11%, over three months by -21.43% and over the past year by -61.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.90 (which is 7.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Sunrun has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy RUN.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.4 | 92.2% |
P/E Trailing = 4.9122
P/E Forward = 7.1531
P/S = 0.499
P/B = 0.5231
P/EG = 3.0706
Revenue TTM = 3.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 137.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 886.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 14.6b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 536.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 72.8m
Net Debt = 14.6b USD (calculated: Debt 15.3b - CCE 712.4m)
Enterprise Value = 16.3b USD (1.73b + Debt 15.3b - CCE 712.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.13 (Ebit TTM 137.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b)
EV/FCF = -11.97x (Enterprise Value 16.3b / FCF TTM -1.36b)
FCF Yield = -8.35% (FCF TTM -1.36b / Enterprise Value 16.3b)
FCF Margin = -39.18% (FCF TTM -1.36b / Revenue TTM 3.48b)
Net Margin = 2.29% (Net Income TTM 79.6m / Revenue TTM 3.48b)
Gross Margin = 34.54% ((Revenue TTM 3.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.73% (prev 30.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 16.3b / Total Assets 23.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.88% (Interest Expense 1.05b / Debt 15.3b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 108.9m (EBIT 137.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 2.17b / Total Current Liabilities 1.52b)
Debt / Equity = 4.38 (Debt 15.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.49b)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.44 (Net Debt 14.6b / EBITDA 886.1m)
Debt / FCF = -10.70 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14.6b / FCF TTM -1.36b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.36% (Net Income 79.6m / Total Assets 23.4b)
RoE = 2.46% (Net Income TTM 79.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.24b)
RoCE = 0.77% (EBIT 137.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.24b + L.T.Debt 14.6b))
RoIC = 0.49% (NOPAT 108.9m / Invested Capital 22.2b)
WACC = 6.42% (E(1.73b)/V(17.0b) * Re(15.11%) + D(15.3b)/V(17.0b) * Rd(6.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 12.54%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.97 | Cagr: 10.27%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.36b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.72 | Revenue CAGR: 15.65% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-21.78% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-4.08% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=-18.3% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-48.89% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-62.9% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -30% (up=2, down=5)