(RUN) Sunrun - NASDAQ
Sector: Technology | Industry: Solar | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 3.075m USD | Total Return: 33.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 109M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 45.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (19.0) with thin interest coverage (-0.0)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio -0.0 is critical
Altman Z'' -0.16 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Confidence
Sunrun Inc. is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the United States, specializing in the design, installation, and maintenance of rooftop solar systems. The company operates through a diverse sales model that includes direct-to-consumer channels, retail partnerships, and a network of independent installers. Beyond hardware sales, Sunrun manages a portfolio of leased systems and operates distributed electricity power plants, which aggregate residential battery storage to support grid stability.
The residential solar sector is characterized by high customer acquisition costs and a transition toward integrated storage solutions as state-level net metering policies evolve. Sunrun’s business model relies heavily on long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and lease contracts, which generate recurring revenue streams over 20- to 25-year periods. For a deeper look at the companys financial health, consider reviewing the latest valuation metrics on ValueRay.
Headquartered in San Francisco and founded in 2007, Sunrun has expanded its offerings to include multi-family housing developments and commercial solar services. The company competes in a capital-intensive industry where interest rate fluctuations significantly impact the cost of financing large-scale residential deployments.
- Interest rate fluctuations impact cost of capital and consumer financing
- Storage attachment rates drive higher margins and customer lifetime value
- Federal tax credit policy and California NEM 3.0 influence demand
- Asset monetization and securitization markets determine liquidity and growth capacity
| Net Income: 568.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 19.12% < 20% (prev 19.45%; Δ -0.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -306.6m > Net Income 568.2m |
| Net Debt (14.3b) to EBITDA (750.9m): 19.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (272.3m) vs 12m ago 5.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.44% > 18% (prev 18.95%; Δ 11.49% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.72% > 50% (prev 10.23%; Δ 4.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM -36.4m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.97b - Total Current Liabilities 1.36b) / Total Assets 22.8b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -3.66b / Total Assets 22.8b) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -36.4m / Avg Total Assets 21.6b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 3.34b / Total Liabilities 17.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.16 = B |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 232.5m/172.1m, Revenue 3.17b/2.08b) |
| GMI: 0.62 (GM 18.95% / 30.44%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.52 (Revenue 3.17b / 2.08b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 568.2m - CFO -306.6m) / TA 22.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.89 with a total of 8,005,216 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.48%,
over one month by -12.07%,
over three months by +0.86% and
over the past year by +33.71%.
Sunrun has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RUN.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 19.3 | 49.4% |
P/E Trailing = 6.0516
P/E Forward = 11.8203
P/S = 0.9685
P/B = 0.9204
P/EG = 3.0706
Revenue TTM = 3.17b USD
EBIT TTM = -36.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 750.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 14.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 339.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 78.9m
Net Debt = 14.3b USD (calculated: Debt 15.0b - CCE 679.6m)
Enterprise Value = 17.3b USD (3.07b + Debt 15.0b - CCE 679.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.04 (Ebit TTM -36.4m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b)
EV/FCF = -23.11x (Enterprise Value 17.3b / FCF TTM -750.6m)
FCF Yield = -4.33% (FCF TTM -750.6m / Enterprise Value 17.3b)
FCF Margin = -23.64% (FCF TTM -750.6m / Revenue TTM 3.17b)
Net Margin = 17.90% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Revenue TTM 3.17b)
Gross Margin = 30.44% ((Revenue TTM 3.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.43% (prev 35.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 17.3b / Total Assets 22.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.94% (Interest Expense 1.04b / Debt 15.0b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -28.8m (EBIT -36.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 1.97b / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 4.48 (Debt 15.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 19.01 (Net Debt 14.3b / EBITDA 750.9m)
Debt / FCF = -19.02 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14.3b / FCF TTM -750.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.63% (Net Income 568.2m / Total Assets 22.8b)
RoE = 18.35% (Net Income TTM 568.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.10b)
RoCE = -0.21% (EBIT -36.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.10b + L.T.Debt 14.5b))
RoIC = -0.13% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -28.8m / Invested Capital 21.6b)
WACC = 6.87% (E(3.07b)/V(18.0b) * Re(13.59%) + D(15.0b)/V(18.0b) * Rd(6.94%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 10.56%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -750.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.09 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 45.41 | Revenue CAGR: 7.62% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+14.60% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=+4.25% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=+202.38% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-24.3% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=+42.49% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=-37.4% | GrowthRev=+7.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50%