(RUN) Sunrun - Overview
Stock: Solar Panels, Battery Storage, Installation, Maintenance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 101% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.31 |
| Alpha | 111.82 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.632 |
| Beta Downside | 1.486 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.66% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.08 |
Description: RUN Sunrun January 13, 2026
Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) designs, installs, owns, and maintains residential solar systems across the United States, selling hardware (panels, racking), battery storage, and lead generation services. Its business model is heavily consumer-focused, leveraging a direct-to-consumer sales funnel that includes online platforms, field marketing, and a partner network to reach homeowners.
Key recent metrics (as of Q4 2023) include roughly 1.2 GW of cumulative installed residential capacity, a 14 % year-over-year increase in total ARR (annual recurring revenue), and a cash-flow conversion rate of about 85 % of net income, indicating strong operational leverage. The residential solar market is being driven by the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) extension through 2032 and declining battery costs, which together boost the economics of Sunrun’s bundled solar-plus-storage offerings.
Sector-wide, the U.S. residential solar adoption rate is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~10 % through 2028, supported by state-level net-metering policies and increasing consumer demand for energy independence.
If you want a data-rich, model-driven perspective on RUN’s valuation, ValueRay’s analyst notes provide a concise, quantitative deep-dive worth checking out.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -2.47b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.04% < 20% (prev 25.10%; Δ 2.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -776.7m > Net Income -2.47b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (267.5m) vs 12m ago 19.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.05% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 2292 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.45% > 50% (prev 9.21%; Δ 1.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.53 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -2.73b / Interest Expense TTM 978.6m) |
Altman Z'' -1.67
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 2.07b - Total Current Liabilities 1.42b) / Total Assets 22.23b |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -3.93b / Total Assets 22.23b) |
| C: -0.16 (EBIT TTM -3.46b / Avg Total Assets 22.16b) |
| D: -0.22 (Book Value of Equity -3.88b / Total Liabilities 17.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.67 = D |
Beneish M -3.49
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 248.3m/182.5m, Revenue 2.32b/2.04b) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 23.05% / 13.02%) |
| AQI: 0.58 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 2.32b / 2.04b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -2.47b - CFO -776.7m) / TA 22.23b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.49 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of RUN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.18%, over one month by +13.16%, over three months by +8.76% and over the past year by +132.92%.
Is RUN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the RUN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.2 | 7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.2 | 7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 21.7 | 4.9% |
RUN Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 1.85
P/B = 1.4363
P/EG = 0.45
Revenue TTM = 2.32b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.46b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.73b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 413.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.72b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 17.85b USD (4.29b + Debt 14.72b - CCE 1.16b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.53 (Ebit TTM -3.46b / Interest Expense TTM 978.6m)
EV/FCF = -7.95x (Enterprise Value 17.85b / FCF TTM -2.24b)
FCF Yield = -12.57% (FCF TTM -2.24b / Enterprise Value 17.85b)
FCF Margin = -96.87% (FCF TTM -2.24b / Revenue TTM 2.32b)
Net Margin = -106.5% (Net Income TTM -2.47b / Revenue TTM 2.32b)
Gross Margin = 23.05% ((Revenue TTM 2.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.57% (prev 16.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 17.85b / Total Assets 22.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.81% (Interest Expense 265.8m / Debt 14.72b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.73b (EBIT -3.46b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 2.07b / Total Current Liabilities 1.42b)
Debt / Equity = 4.93 (Debt 14.72b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.97 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 13.56b / EBITDA -2.73b)
Debt / FCF = -6.04 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 13.56b / FCF TTM -2.24b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.13% (Net Income -2.47b / Total Assets 22.23b)
RoE = -89.05% (Net Income TTM -2.47b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.77b)
RoCE = -20.25% (EBIT -3.46b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.77b + L.T.Debt 14.31b))
RoIC = -16.51% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.73b / Invested Capital 16.55b)
WACC = 3.80% (E(4.29b)/V(19.00b) * Re(11.93%) + D(14.72b)/V(19.00b) * Rd(1.81%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 10.65%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.24b)
EPS Correlation: 23.07 | EPS CAGR: 2.39% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 20.68 | Revenue CAGR: 14.56% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-0.273 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-0.289 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-64.5% | Growth Revenue=+5.7%