SAFT Stock Analysis: Safety Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.138m USD | 12M Return: 8.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.3M
EPS Trend: 78.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a Boston-based property and casualty insurer writing private passenger and commercial automobile, homeowners, and several specialty lines exclusively in Massachusetts. Core products include personal auto (bodily injury, property damage, no-fault personal injury protection, and physical damage), commercial auto for individual vehicles and fleets, and homeowners coverage for dwellings, condominiums, and apartments against standard perils.
The portfolio also extends to business owners policies, personal and commercial umbrella coverage, dwelling fire for non-owner-occupied residences, inland marine, and watercraft insurance. Distribution is conducted entirely through independent agents. The company was founded in 1979 and adopted its current name in 2002.
As a regional U.S. property and casualty writer, SAFT operates under Massachusetts-specific rate and form regulation, which typically restricts geographic diversification but allows for closer underwriting and claims handling in a single market. Reliance on independent agents is a standard model in personal lines insurance, where independent producers represent multiple carriers and provide local market reach.
- MA auto rate adequacy pressures combined ratio
- Catastrophe losses from severe weather elevate homeowners claim costs
- Investment portfolio income rises on elevated short-term rates
| Net Income: 63.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -21.78% < 20% (prev -24.98%; Δ 3.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 174.3m > Net Income 63.0m |
| Net Debt (-681.1m) to EBITDA (93.4m): -7.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (14.5m) vs 12m ago -1.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.70% > 18% (prev 35.37%; Δ -2.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.72% > 50% (prev 49.87%; Δ 3.85% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 40.43 > 6 (EBIT TTM 82.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.04m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.29b - Total Current Liabilities 1.57b) / Total Assets 2.43b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 816.3m / Total Assets 2.43b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 82.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b) |
| D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 855.8m / Total Liabilities 1.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.15 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 497.2m/486.4m, Revenue 1.27b/1.14b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 35.37% / 32.70%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.47 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.27b / 1.14b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 63.0m - CFO 174.3m) / TA 2.43b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 75.93 with a total of 72,105 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.43%, over one month by +7.56%, over three months by +1.73% and over the past year by +8.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 73.30 (which is 3.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Safety Insurance has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 70 | -7.8% |
P/E Trailing = 18.3144
P/E Forward = 17.1233
P/S = 0.8908
P/B = 1.3087
P/EG = 0.9538
Revenue TTM = 1.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 82.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 11.1m USD (estimated: total debt 61.1m - short term 50.0m)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 72.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 11.1m
Net Debt = -681.1m USD (calculated: Debt 72.2m - CCE 753.3m)
Enterprise Value = 456.4m USD (1.14b + Debt 72.2m - CCE 753.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 40.43 (Ebit TTM 82.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.04m)
EV/FCF = 2.68x (Enterprise Value 456.4m / FCF TTM 170.3m)
FCF Yield = 37.31% (FCF TTM 170.3m / Enterprise Value 456.4m)
FCF Margin = 13.41% (FCF TTM 170.3m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Net Margin = 4.97% (Net Income TTM 63.0m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Gross Margin = 32.70% ((Revenue TTM 1.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 854.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.44% (prev 34.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.19 (Enterprise Value 456.4m / Total Assets 2.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.83% (Interest Expense 2.04m / Debt 72.2m)
Taxrate = 21.78% (17.6m / 80.6m)
NOPAT = 64.6m (EBIT 82.6m * (1 - 21.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 1.29b / Total Current Liabilities 1.57b)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 72.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 855.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.29 (Net Debt -681.1m / EBITDA 93.4m)
Debt / FCF = -4.00 (Net Debt -681.1m / FCF TTM 170.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 880.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.67% (Net Income 63.0m / Total Assets 2.43b)
RoE = 7.16% (Net Income TTM 63.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 880.2m)
RoCE = 9.27% (EBIT 82.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 880.2m + L.T.Debt 11.1m))
RoIC = 7.57% (NOPAT 64.6m / Invested Capital 853.4m)
WACC = 6.40% (E(1.14b)/V(1.21b) * Re(6.67%) + D(72.2m)/V(1.21b) * Rd(2.83%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 0.0 | Cagr: -0.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.93% ; FCFF base≈162.7m ; Y1≈180.2m ; Y5≈232.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 287.7 (EV 3.54b - Net Debt -681.1m = Equity 4.22b / Shares 14.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 12.49% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 78.16 | EPS CAGR: 66.13% | SUE: -1.09 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.73 | Revenue CAGR: 16.92% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0