SAFT Stock Analysis: Safety Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.526m USD | 12M Return: 56.6% | US78648T1007 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.7M
EPS Trend: 75.1%
Rev. Trend: 98.2%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. is a Boston-based property and casualty insurer operating primarily in Massachusetts. The company provides private passenger and commercial automobile, homeowners, business owners, personal umbrella, dwelling fire, inland marine, and watercraft insurance products. It distributes its products exclusively through independent agents. Founded in 1979, the company is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker SAFT and falls within the small-cap segment of the U.S. Financials sector. Massachusetts has some of the highest auto insurance premiums in the U.S., driven by a heavily regulated market and high population density in the Boston metro area, which shapes the operating environment for the company. As a P&C carrier, the firm earns revenue primarily through earned premiums and generates profit from the difference between premiums collected and claims paid, known as the combined ratio.
- Massachusetts auto premium rate increases face regulatory approval
- Investment income surges as interest rates rise
- Severe weather losses pressure homeowners combined ratio
| Net Income: 68.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 45.04% < 20% (prev -26.32%; Δ 71.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 180.3m > Net Income 68.6m |
| Net Debt (-1.53b) to EBITDA (95.5m): -16.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (14.6m) vs 12m ago -1.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.99% > 18% (prev 36.21%; Δ 5.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.58% > 50% (prev 50.39%; Δ 10.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 37.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 89.9m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m) |
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 2.23b - Total Current Liabilities 1.57b) / Total Assets 2.50b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 837.3m / Total Assets 2.50b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 89.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.43b) |
| D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 876.7m / Total Liabilities 1.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.64 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.53 (Receivables 332.5m/511.6m, Revenue 1.47b/1.19b) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 36.21% / 41.99%) |
| AQI: 0.21 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 1.47b / 1.19b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 68.6m - CFO 180.3m) / TA 2.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.85 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 103.94 with a total of 112,686 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.13%, over one month by +0.55%, over three months by +35.53% and over the past year by +56.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 103.10 (which is 0.8% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Safety Insurance has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 70 | -32.7% |
P/E Trailing = 22.3047
P/E Forward = 17.1233
P/S = 1.1863
P/B = 1.7352
P/EG = 0.9538
Revenue TTM = 1.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 89.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 95.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 50.0m USD (estimated: total debt 59.8m - short term 9.77m)
Short Term Debt = 9.77m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 9.77m
Net Debt = -1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 69.5m - CCE 1.60b)
Enterprise Value = 1.53b USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.23 (Ebit TTM 89.9m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
EV/FCF = 8.68x (Enterprise Value 1.53b / FCF TTM 175.7m)
FCF Yield = 11.52% (FCF TTM 175.7m / Enterprise Value 1.53b)
FCF Margin = 11.92% (FCF TTM 175.7m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Net Margin = 4.65% (Net Income TTM 68.6m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Gross Margin = 41.99% ((Revenue TTM 1.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 855.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.53% (prev 21.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 1.53b / Total Assets 2.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.47% (Interest Expense 2.42m / Debt 69.5m)
Taxrate = 21.60% (18.9m / 87.5m)
NOPAT = 70.5m (EBIT 89.9m * (1 - 21.60%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 2.23b / Total Current Liabilities 1.57b)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 69.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 876.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -16.00 (Net Debt -1.53b / EBITDA 95.5m)
Debt / FCF = -8.70 (Net Debt -1.53b / FCF TTM 175.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 881.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.82% (Net Income 68.6m / Total Assets 2.50b)
RoE = 7.79% (Net Income TTM 68.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 881.1m)
RoCE = 9.66% (EBIT 89.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 881.1m + L.T.Debt 50.0m))
RoIC = 8.08% (NOPAT 70.5m / Invested Capital 872.4m)
WACC = 4.85% (E(1.53b)/V(1.60b) * Re(4.95%) + D(69.5m)/V(1.60b) * Rd(3.47%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 4.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -61.53 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.75% ; FCFF base≈168.9m ; Y1≈184.7m ; Y5≈232.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 345.9 (EV 3.55b - Net Debt -1.53b = Equity 5.08b / Shares 14.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.81% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 75.11 | EPS CAGR: 61.42% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.19 | Revenue CAGR: 17.60% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0