SAFT Stock Analysis: Safety Insurance | NASDAQ

Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.520m USD | 12M Return: 48.3% | US78648T1007 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Business Insurance, Umbrella Insurance
Total Rating 66
Safety 78
Buy Signal 1.23
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Rotation: -3.5
Market Cap: 1.52B
Avg Turnover: 24.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility21.0%
VaR 5th Pctl3.44%
VaR vs Median-0.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.90
Rel. Str. IBD89.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group94.4
Character TTM
Beta-0.291
Beta Downside-0.810
Hurst Exponent0.470
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD20.10%
CAGR/Max DD0.97
CAGR/Mean DD2.54
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SAFT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.85, "2021-09": 1.7, "2021-12": 1.55, "2022-03": 0.99, "2022-06": 1.91, "2022-09": 1.13, "2022-12": 0.98, "2023-03": -0.87, "2023-06": 0.8, "2023-09": 0.59, "2023-12": 0.3, "2024-03": 1.36, "2024-06": 1.18, "2024-09": 1.1, "2024-12": 0.5494, "2025-03": 1.4785, "2025-06": 1.45, "2025-09": 1.9066, "2025-12": 1.58, "2026-03": -0.9879, "2026-06": 2.03,
EPS CAGR: 61.42%
EPS Trend: 75.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of SAFT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 232.597, 2021-09: 216.246, 2021-12: 219.178, 2022-03: 192.171, 2022-06: 177.638, 2022-09: 191.679, 2022-12: 202.721, 2023-03: 212.515, 2023-06: 228.925, 2023-09: 226.528, 2023-12: 257.978, 2024-03: 266.603, 2024-06: 267.34, 2024-09: 291.095, 2024-12: 284.699, 2025-03: 299.638, 2025-06: 315.932, 2025-09: 323.208, 2025-12: 315.295, 2026-03: 315.014, 2026-06: 520.801,
Rev. CAGR: 17.60%
Rev. Trend: 98.2%
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8
Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -1.8% 42
Feb -1.0% 18
Mar +2.9% 19
Apr -0.1% 19
May +1.8% 8
Jun +0.5% 29
Jul +1.5% 19
Aug +1.7% 29
Sep -1.8% 28
Oct -0.1% 0
Nov +3.2% 59
Dec -1.0% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SAFT Safety Insurance

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a Boston-based property and casualty insurer writing private passenger and commercial automobile, homeowners, and several specialty lines exclusively in Massachusetts. Core products include personal auto (bodily injury, property damage, no-fault personal injury protection, and physical damage), commercial auto for individual vehicles and fleets, and homeowners coverage for dwellings, condominiums, and apartments against standard perils.

The portfolio also extends to business owners policies, personal and commercial umbrella coverage, dwelling fire for non-owner-occupied residences, inland marine, and watercraft insurance. Distribution is conducted entirely through independent agents. The company was founded in 1979 and adopted its current name in 2002.

As a regional U.S. property and casualty writer, SAFT operates under Massachusetts-specific rate and form regulation, which typically restricts geographic diversification but allows for closer underwriting and claims handling in a single market. Reliance on independent agents is a standard model in personal lines insurance, where independent producers represent multiple carriers and provide local market reach.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • MA auto rate adequacy pressures combined ratio
  • Catastrophe losses from severe weather elevate homeowners claim costs
  • Investment portfolio income rises on elevated short-term rates
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 68.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.31 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 45.04% < 20% (prev -26.32%; Δ 71.36% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 180.3m > Net Income 68.6m
Net Debt (-1.53b) to EBITDA (93.1m): -16.42 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (14.6m) vs 12m ago -1.51% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.99% > 18% (prev 36.21%; Δ 5.78% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 60.58% > 50% (prev 50.39%; Δ 10.19% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 36.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 87.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
Altman Z'' 3.64
A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 2.23b - Total Current Liabilities 1.57b) / Total Assets 2.50b
B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 837.3m / Total Assets 2.50b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 87.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.43b)
D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 876.7m / Total Liabilities 1.63b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.64 = AA
Beneish M -3.85
DSRI: 0.53 (Receivables 332.5m/511.6m, Revenue 1.47b/1.19b)
GMI: 0.86 (GM 36.21% / 41.99%)
AQI: 0.21 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.50)
SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 1.47b / 1.19b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 68.6m - CFO 180.3m) / TA 2.50b)
Beneish M = -3.85 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of SAFT shares?

As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 103.75 with a total of 150,997 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.37%, over one month by +0.53%, over three months by +45.46% and over the past year by +48.27%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 102.30 (which is 1.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is SAFT a buy, sell or hold?

Safety Insurance has no consensus analysts rating.

What are the forecasts/targets for the SAFT price?
Analysts Target Price 70 -32.5%
Safety Insurance (SAFT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 22 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.52b (1.52b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.2667
P/E Forward = 17.1233
P/S = 1.1817
P/B = 1.7345
P/EG = 0.9538
Revenue TTM = 1.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 87.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 50.0m USD (estimated: total debt 59.8m - short term 9.77m)
Short Term Debt = 9.77m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 9.77m
Net Debt = -1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 69.5m - CCE 1.60b)
Enterprise Value = 1.52b USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 36.23 (Ebit TTM 87.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
EV/FCF = 8.65x (Enterprise Value 1.52b / FCF TTM 175.7m)
FCF Yield = 11.56% (FCF TTM 175.7m / Enterprise Value 1.52b)
FCF Margin = 11.92% (FCF TTM 175.7m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Net Margin = 4.65% (Net Income TTM 68.6m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Gross Margin = 41.99% ((Revenue TTM 1.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 855.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.53% (prev 21.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 1.52b / Total Assets 2.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.47% (Interest Expense 2.42m / Debt 69.5m)
Taxrate = 21.60% (18.9m / 87.5m)
NOPAT = 68.6m (EBIT 87.5m * (1 - 21.60%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 2.23b / Total Current Liabilities 1.57b)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 69.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 876.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -16.42 (Net Debt -1.53b / EBITDA 93.1m)
Debt / FCF = -8.70 (Net Debt -1.53b / FCF TTM 175.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 881.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.82% (Net Income 68.6m / Total Assets 2.50b)
RoE = 7.79% (Net Income TTM 68.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 881.1m)
RoCE = 9.40% (EBIT 87.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 881.1m + L.T.Debt 50.0m))
RoIC = 7.86% (NOPAT 68.6m / Invested Capital 872.4m)
WACC = 4.86% (E(1.52b)/V(1.59b) * Re(4.96%) + D(69.5m)/V(1.59b) * Rd(3.47%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 4.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -61.53 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.75% ; FCFF base≈168.9m ; Y1≈184.7m ; Y5≈232.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 345.9 (EV 3.55b - Net Debt -1.53b = Equity 5.08b / Shares 14.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.81% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 75.11 | EPS CAGR: 61.42% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.19 | Revenue CAGR: 17.60% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0