(SAFT) Safety Insurance - Overview
Stock: Auto, Home, Commercial, Umbrella, Marine
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.77% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.80% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.28% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 68.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.79% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.19 |
| Alpha | -0.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.218 |
| Beta Downside | 0.147 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.33% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.14 |
Description: SAFT Safety Insurance January 19, 2026
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT) is a U.S.–focused property-and-casualty carrier that underwrites private passenger auto, commercial auto, homeowners, business-owners, personal and commercial umbrella, inland-marine, and watercraft policies. Distribution is conducted exclusively through a network of independent agents, and the firm’s product suite includes both standard lines (e.g., bodily-injury liability, collision coverage) and specialty excess-liability solutions for individuals and commercial fleets.
As of the most recent filing (Q4 2023), SAFT reported a combined ratio of 92.5 %-indicating underwriting profitability-and net written premiums of roughly $1.1 billion, up 5 % year-over-year, driven largely by higher premium rates in the auto segment amid rising vehicle repair costs. The company’s return on equity (ROE) sits near 9 %, modestly above the sector average of 7-8 %, while its expense ratio has been trimmed through digital quoting tools. Key macro drivers include the persistent low-interest-rate environment that compresses investment income for insurers, and an elevated frequency of severe weather events that pressure loss reserves in the homeowners line.
For a deeper, data-rich evaluation of SAFT’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find ValueRay’s analyst platform a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 87.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.70% < 20% (prev 32.03%; Δ -1.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 171.4m > Net Income 87.3m |
| Net Debt (-13.6m) to EBITDA (120.3m): -0.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 28.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (14.8m) vs 12m ago -0.65% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.04% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3568 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.84% > 50% (prev 47.70%; Δ 4.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 102.6 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 120.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.10m) |
Altman Z'' 2.99
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 389.4m - Total Current Liabilities 13.8m) / Total Assets 2.45b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 837.5m / Total Assets 2.45b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 112.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 815.3m / Total Liabilities 1.55b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.99 = A |
Beneish M -2.60
| DSRI: 1.44 (Receivables 507.8m/311.4m, Revenue 1.22b/1.08b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 36.04% / 35.76%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.82) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 1.22b / 1.08b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 87.3m - CFO 171.4m) / TA 2.45b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.60 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of SAFT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.93%, over one month by +6.68%, over three months by +10.51% and over the past year by +6.14%.
Is SAFT a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the SAFT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 70 | -12.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 70 | -12.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 84.8 | 5.7% |
SAFT Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 0.959
P/B = 1.3125
P/EG = 1.31
Revenue TTM = 1.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 112.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 120.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -13.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 565.4m USD (1.18b + Debt 42.6m - CCE 657.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 102.6 (Ebit TTM 112.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.10m)
EV/FCF = 3.31x (Enterprise Value 565.4m / FCF TTM 170.8m)
FCF Yield = 30.21% (FCF TTM 170.8m / Enterprise Value 565.4m)
FCF Margin = 13.96% (FCF TTM 170.8m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Net Margin = 7.13% (Net Income TTM 87.3m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Gross Margin = 36.04% ((Revenue TTM 1.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 782.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.58% (prev 38.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.23 (Enterprise Value 565.4m / Total Assets 2.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.00% (Interest Expense 426.0k / Debt 42.6m)
Taxrate = 21.82% (7.90m / 36.2m)
NOPAT = 87.9m (EBIT 112.5m * (1 - 21.82%))
Current Ratio = 28.20 (Total Current Assets 389.4m / Total Current Liabilities 13.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 42.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 899.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.11 (Net Debt -13.6m / EBITDA 120.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.08 (Net Debt -13.6m / FCF TTM 170.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 863.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.70% (Net Income 87.3m / Total Assets 2.45b)
RoE = 10.11% (Net Income TTM 87.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 863.0m)
RoCE = 12.85% (EBIT 112.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 863.0m + L.T.Debt 12.6m))
RoIC = 9.85% (NOPAT 87.9m / Invested Capital 893.0m)
WACC = 6.51% (E(1.18b)/V(1.22b) * Re(6.72%) + D(42.6m)/V(1.22b) * Rd(1.00%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.31%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.27% ; FCFF base≈146.0m ; Y1≈180.1m ; Y5≈306.7m
Fair Price DCF = 496.8 (EV 7.39b - Net Debt -13.6m = Equity 7.40b / Shares 14.9m; r=6.51% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 17.63 | EPS CAGR: 5.68% | SUE: 1.72 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 94.16 | Revenue CAGR: 10.91% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0