SCVL Stock Analysis: Shoe Carnival | NASDAQ
Apparel Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 473m USD | 12M Return: -29.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.85M
EPS Trend: -93.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -72.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Shoe Station Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SCVL) is a U.S.-based family footwear retailer founded in 1978 and headquartered in Fort Mill, South Carolina. The company offers dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots, athletic footwear, and accessories for men, women, and children through physical stores, two e-commerce sites (shoecarnival.com and shoestation.com), and a related mobile app. The company was originally known as Shoe Carnival, Inc. before adopting its current name in June 2012.
Operating in the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Apparel Retail sub-industry, the company follows a multi-channel specialty retail model that combines physical store operations with digital sales. Family footwear retailers in this segment typically compete through a broad assortment of branded merchandise, seasonal inventory turnover, and value-oriented pricing aimed at a mass-market customer base.
- Athletic footwear category drives comparable sales growth
- Tariff exposure on imported footwear pressures gross margins
- Share repurchase program supports earnings per share
| Net Income: 37.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.02% < 20% (prev 33.81%; Δ 4.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 104.0m > Net Income 37.3m |
| Net Debt (231.9m) to EBITDA (87.7m): 2.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.6m) vs 12m ago 0.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.29% > 18% (prev 35.40%; Δ 0.89% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 98.15% > 50% (prev 103.5%; Δ -5.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 138.7 > 6 (EBIT TTM 52.7m / Interest Expense TTM 380k) |
| A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 570.9m - Total Current Liabilities 141.9m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| B: 0.69 (Retained Earnings 798.4m / Total Assets 1.16b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 52.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.15b) |
| D: 1.39 (Book Value of Equity 673.4m / Total Liabilities 485.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.44 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 6.72m/8.74m, Revenue 1.13b/1.18b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 35.40% / 36.29%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 1.13b / 1.18b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 37.3m - CFO 104.0m) / TA 1.16b) |
| Beneish M = -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.92 with a total of 560,519 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.39%, over one month by -9.37%, over three months by -14.36% and over the past year by -29.20%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.90 (which is 6.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Shoe Carnival has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SCVL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | 47.5% |
P/E Trailing = 12.9111
P/E Forward = 10.0705
P/S = 0.4194
P/B = 0.6088
P/EG = 0.9544
Revenue TTM = 1.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 52.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 87.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 303.4m USD (estimated: total debt 361.2m - short term 57.8m)
Short Term Debt = 57.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 361.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 361.2m already included)
Net Debt = 231.9m USD (calculated: Debt 361.2m - CCE 129.3m)
Enterprise Value = 705.1m USD (473.2m + Debt 361.2m - CCE 129.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 138.7 (Ebit TTM 52.7m / Interest Expense TTM 380k)
EV/FCF = 11.33x (Enterprise Value 705.1m / FCF TTM 62.2m)
FCF Yield = 8.82% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Enterprise Value 705.1m)
FCF Margin = 5.51% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Net Margin = 3.31% (Net Income TTM 37.3m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Gross Margin = 36.29% ((Revenue TTM 1.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 718.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.28% (prev 34.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 705.1m / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 380k / Debt 361.2m)
Taxrate = 28.73% (15.0m / 52.3m)
NOPAT = 37.6m (EBIT 52.7m * (1 - 28.73%))
Current Ratio = 4.02 (Total Current Assets 570.9m / Total Current Liabilities 141.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.54 (Debt 361.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 673.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.64 (Net Debt 231.9m / EBITDA 87.7m)
Debt / FCF = 3.73 (Net Debt 231.9m / FCF TTM 62.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 679.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.24% (Net Income 37.3m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 5.49% (Net Income TTM 37.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 679.2m)
RoCE = 5.36% (EBIT 52.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 679.2m + L.T.Debt 303.4m))
RoIC = 3.69% (NOPAT 37.6m / Invested Capital 1.02b)
WACC = 6.00% (E(473.2m)/V(834.4m) * Re(10.52%) + D(361.2m)/V(834.4m) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈53.2m ; Y1≈61.0m ; Y5≈89.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 41.18 (EV 1.35b - Net Debt 231.9m = Equity 1.12b / Shares 27.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -93.91 | EPS CAGR: -17.63% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -72.70 | Revenue CAGR: -2.30% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+2.48% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=-2.91% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.50 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=-21.2% | GrowthRev=-0.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.84 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+23.2% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)