(SCVL) Shoe Carnival - Overview
Stock: Shoes, Sandals, Boots, Accessories
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.98% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.56% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.38% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.24 |
| Alpha | -39.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.198 |
| Beta Downside | 1.082 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.79% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
Description: SCVL Shoe Carnival December 26, 2025
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCVL) is a U.S.-based family footwear retailer that sells dress, casual, athletic, and specialty shoes for men, women, and children, along with accessories, through a network of over 300 physical stores and digital channels (shoecarnival.com, shoestion.com, and a mobile app). The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
For FY 2023 the firm generated approximately $2.0 billion in revenue, with comparable-store sales up 5.2% YoY and digital sales accounting for roughly 12% of total revenue-both metrics indicating modest resilience amid a tightening consumer discretionary environment. Inventory turnover improved to 4.1×, and the operating margin stabilized near 5.5%, reflecting disciplined cost management after a year of supply-chain disruptions.
Key macro drivers for Shoe Carnival include the health of U.S. consumer discretionary spending, which is sensitive to employment trends and real-wage growth, as well as the broader shift toward omnichannel retailing that rewards firms able to integrate in-store experience with e-commerce. Additionally, the footwear sector is influenced by seasonal fashion cycles and the ongoing demand for affordable, family-oriented product assortments.
For a deeper, data-rich look at SCVL’s valuation dynamics, you might find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful for uncovering hidden upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 57.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.73% < 20% (prev 32.07%; Δ 5.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 81.8m > Net Income 57.9m |
| Net Debt (268.4m) to EBITDA (101.9m): 2.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.6m) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.54% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3618 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 99.63% > 50% (prev 108.5%; Δ -8.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 172.6 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 101.9m / Interest Expense TTM 331.0k) |
Altman Z'' 6.71
| A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 573.0m - Total Current Liabilities 141.3m) / Total Assets 1.17b |
| B: 0.69 (Retained Earnings 803.9m / Total Assets 1.17b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 57.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.15b) |
| D: 1.64 (Book Value of Equity 803.9m / Total Liabilities 489.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.71 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.25
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 7.09m/8.68m, Revenue 1.14b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 36.54% / 35.80%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 1.14b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 57.9m - CFO 81.8m) / TA 1.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.25 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SCVL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.82%, over one month by +12.57%, over three months by +22.27% and over the past year by -20.33%.
Is SCVL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SCVL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19 | -7.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | -7.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.3 | 8.7% |
SCVL Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.8866
P/S = 0.4646
P/B = 0.7637
P/EG = 0.95
Revenue TTM = 1.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 57.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 101.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 362.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 51.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 362.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 268.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 786.7m USD (531.6m + Debt 362.8m - CCE 107.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 172.6 (Ebit TTM 57.1m / Interest Expense TTM 331.0k)
EV/FCF = 22.42x (Enterprise Value 786.7m / FCF TTM 35.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.46% (FCF TTM 35.1m / Enterprise Value 786.7m)
FCF Margin = 3.07% (FCF TTM 35.1m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Net Margin = 5.06% (Net Income TTM 57.9m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Gross Margin = 36.54% ((Revenue TTM 1.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 726.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.64% (prev 38.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 786.7m / Total Assets 1.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.02% (Interest Expense 78.0k / Debt 362.8m)
Taxrate = 25.45% (5.00m / 19.6m)
NOPAT = 42.6m (EBIT 57.1m * (1 - 25.45%))
Current Ratio = 4.05 (Total Current Assets 573.0m / Total Current Liabilities 141.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 362.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 683.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.63 (Net Debt 268.4m / EBITDA 101.9m)
Debt / FCF = 7.65 (Net Debt 268.4m / FCF TTM 35.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 664.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.04% (Net Income 57.9m / Total Assets 1.17b)
RoE = 8.72% (Net Income TTM 57.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 664.1m)
RoCE = 5.56% (EBIT 57.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 664.1m + L.T.Debt 362.8m))
RoIC = 6.41% (NOPAT 42.6m / Invested Capital 664.1m)
WACC = 6.15% (E(531.6m)/V(894.4m) * Re(10.33%) + D(362.8m)/V(894.4m) * Rd(0.02%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.47% ; FCFF base≈50.7m ; Y1≈33.3m ; Y5≈15.2m
Fair Price DCF = 6.60 (EV 449.2m - Net Debt 268.4m = Equity 180.8m / Shares 27.4m; r=6.15% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -77.08 | EPS CAGR: -51.09% | SUE: -3.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -37.90 | Revenue CAGR: -1.41% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=-0.120 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-16.6% | Growth Revenue=-1.4%