SFNC Stock Analysis: Simmons First National | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.313m USD | 12M Return: 18.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Consumer Banking, Commercial Lending, Trust Services, Treasury Management
Total Rating 22
Safety 31
Buy Signal 0.28
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 3.31B
Avg Turnover: 34.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility29.9%
VaR 5th Pctl4.74%
VaR vs Median-3.51%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.62
Rel. Str. IBD65.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group42.3
Character TTM
Beta0.761
Beta Downside0.845
Hurst Exponent0.485
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD30.55%
CAGR/Max DD0.47
CAGR/Mean DD1.05
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SFNC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.69, "2021-09": 0.73, "2021-12": 0.52, "2022-03": 0.59, "2022-06": 0.52, "2022-09": 0.64, "2022-12": 0.64, "2023-03": 0.37, "2023-06": 0.48, "2023-09": 0.39, "2023-12": 0.4, "2024-03": 0.32, "2024-06": 0.33, "2024-09": 0.37, "2024-12": 0.39, "2025-03": 0.26, "2025-06": 0.44, "2025-09": 0.46, "2025-12": 0.54, "2026-03": 0.47,
EPS CAGR: -4.28%
EPS Trend: -27.7%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of SFNC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 211.554, 2021-09: 209.749, 2021-12: 213.809, 2022-03: 201.239, 2022-06: 241.947, 2022-09: 270.492, 2022-12: 305.88, 2023-03: 308.483, 2023-06: 338.756, 2023-09: 350.907, 2023-12: 343.434, 2024-03: 362.505, 2024-06: 369.229, 2024-09: 348.218, 2024-12: 366.398, 2025-03: 350.963, 2025-06: 354.186, 2025-09: -445.981, 2025-12: 358.807, 2026-03: 301.814,
Rev. CAGR: -24.79%
Rev. Trend: -68.1%
Last SUE: 0.15
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8
Confidence

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.4% 14
Feb -1.7% 15
Mar -4.7% 42
Apr -1.5% 16
May -0.2% 0
Jun +1.4% 26
Jul +3.6% 37
Aug -0.2% 21
Sep -2.7% 40
Oct -3.3% 9
Nov +5.6% 36
Dec +0.2% 8

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SFNC Simmons First National

Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is a bank holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Simmons Bank. Founded in 1903, the company provides a full suite of retail and commercial banking products to individuals and businesses, including deposit accounts, a wide range of loan products (consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, warehouse, and SBA lending), and ancillary services such as credit cards, trust and fiduciary services, investments, insurance, treasury management, brokerage, and digital banking platforms.

The company maintains a regional banking footprint spanning six states across the South-Central U.S.-Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. As a regional bank, SFNCs business model is anchored in gathering deposits and originating loans to generate net interest income, supplemented by non-interest fee revenue from services such as wealth management, treasury management, and brokerage.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
  • Commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit risk
  • Deposit growth and loan demand in Mid-South expansion markets
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 0.0
Net Income: -361.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.38 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -132.8% < 20% (prev -1.29k%; Δ 1.16k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 456.0m > Net Income -361.4m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.8m) vs 12m ago 15.44% < -2%
Gross Margin: 7.90% > 18% (prev 49.77%; Δ -41.87% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 2.21% > 50% (prev 5.36%; Δ -3.15% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM -509.4m / Interest Expense TTM 484.8m)
Altman Z'' -0.04
A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 3.60b - Total Current Liabilities 4.35b) / Total Assets 24.7b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 901.7m / Total Assets 24.7b)
C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -509.4m / Avg Total Assets 25.7b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 3.44b / Total Liabilities 21.3b)
Altman-Z'' = -0.04 = B
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 2.18 (Receivables 101.6m/117.4m, Revenue 568.8m/1.43b)
GMI: 6.30 (GM 49.77% / 7.90%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.86)
SGI: 0.40 (Revenue 568.8m / 1.43b)
TATA: -0.03 (NI -361.4m - CFO 456.0m) / TA 24.7b)
Beneish M = 2.29 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of SFNC shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.75 with a total of 882,662 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.35%, over one month by +6.34%, over three months by +15.60% and over the past year by +18.80%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.10 (which is 2.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is SFNC a buy, sell or hold?

Simmons First National has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SFNC.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SFNC price?
Analysts Target Price 23.7 4.2%
Simmons First National (SFNC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.31b (3.31b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 9.5238
P/S = 40.7175
P/B = 0.9798
P/EG = 3.8253
Revenue TTM = 568.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -509.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -426.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 762.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 771.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.72b USD (calculated: Debt 771.2m - CCE 3.49b)
Enterprise Value = 589.5m USD (3.31b + Debt 771.2m - CCE 3.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.05 (Ebit TTM -509.4m / Interest Expense TTM 484.8m)
EV/FCF = 1.40x (Enterprise Value 589.5m / FCF TTM 421.7m)
FCF Yield = 71.54% (FCF TTM 421.7m / Enterprise Value 589.5m)
FCF Margin = 74.14% (FCF TTM 421.7m / Revenue TTM 568.8m)
Net Margin = -63.53% (Net Income TTM -361.4m / Revenue TTM 568.8m)
Gross Margin = 7.90% ((Revenue TTM 568.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 523.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.33% (prev 65.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 589.5m / Total Assets 24.7b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 62.87% (Interest Expense 484.8m / Debt 771.2m)
 Taxrate = 20.36% (17.5m / 86.1m)
NOPAT = -405.6m (EBIT -509.4m * (1 - 20.36%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 3.60b / Total Current Liabilities 4.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 771.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.44b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 6.39 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -2.72b / EBITDA -426.5m)
 Debt / FCF = -6.46 (Net Debt -2.72b / FCF TTM 421.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.40% (Net Income -361.4m / Total Assets 24.7b)
RoE = -10.51% (Net Income TTM -361.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.44b)
RoCE = -12.12% (EBIT -509.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.44b + L.T.Debt 762.5m))
 RoIC = -1.64% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -405.6m / Invested Capital 24.7b)
 WACC = 7.02% (E(3.31b)/V(4.08b) * Re(8.66%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 6.78%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈395.2m ; Y1≈453.0m ; Y5≈666.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.94 (EV 10.0b - Net Debt -2.72b = Equity 12.8b / Shares 145.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -27.70 | EPS CAGR: -4.28% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -68.13 | Revenue CAGR: -24.79% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.07 | Chg30d=+0.24% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+19.8% | GrowthRev=+11.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.21 | Chg30d=+0.53% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+6.4% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81% (up=22, down=1)