SGML Stock Analysis: Sigma Lithium Resources | NASDAQ

Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.069m USD | 12M Return: 52.8% | CA8265991023 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Spodumene, Lithium Concentrate, Battery Materials
Total Rating 32
Safety 31
Buy Signal -1.19
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: -17.4
Market Cap: 1.07B
Avg Turnover: 18.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility95.5%
VaR 5th Pctl15.9%
VaR vs Median0.88%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.89
Rel. Str. IBD11.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group33
Character TTM
Beta2.234
Beta Downside1.554
Hurst Exponent0.539
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD88.01%
CAGR/Max DD-0.42
CAGR/Mean DD-0.60
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SGML over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": -0.0991, "2021-12": -0.17, "2022-03": -0.08, "2022-06": -0.12, "2022-09": -0.09, "2022-12": null, "2023-03": -0.0719, "2023-06": -0.22, "2023-09": 0.33, "2023-12": -0.0799, "2024-03": -0.06, "2024-06": -0.09, "2024-09": -0.22, "2024-12": -0.07, "2025-03": 0.04, "2025-06": -0.17, "2025-09": -0.1, "2025-12": -0.22, "2026-03": 0.1, "2026-06": -0.02,
Last SUE: -1.66
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of SGML over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 0, 2021-12: 0, 2022-03: 0, 2022-06: 0, 2022-09: 0, 2022-12: 0, 2023-03: 0, 2023-06: 0, 2023-09: 129.925, 2023-12: 51.306, 2024-03: 37.202, 2024-06: 45.92, 2024-09: 20.894, 2024-12: 67.207, 2025-03: 33.475503, 2025-06: 12.395454, 2025-09: 28.549, 2025-12: 16.903, 2026-03: 41.75549, 2026-06: 54.7,
Rev. CAGR: -17.91%
Rev. Trend: -59.5%
Last SUE: -1.12
Qual. Beats: -2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.1 years of data

Jan -5.8% 28
Feb +3.9% 28
Mar -7.5% 46
Apr -5.8% 7
May +0.0% 11
Jun -0.9% 12
Jul +3.1% 12
Aug +3.4% 24
Sep +0.6% 9
Oct +5.6% 11
Nov +0.1% 9
Dec -0.3% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SGML Sigma Lithium Resources

Sigma Lithium Corporation (NASDAQ: SGML) is a Canadian-based mining company engaged in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. The company supplies lithium to the lithium-ion battery supply chain serving the electric vehicle industry, positioning it within the broader clean energy transition. It was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation before rebranding in July 2021, and completed its U.S. IPO in September 2021.

The company operates in the Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry), with its Brazilian operations making it one of the few publicly listed pure-play lithium producers in the Americas. Lithium is a critical raw material for rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and Brazils hard-rock spodumene deposits represent a meaningful portion of the countrys growing role in global lithium production outside of the dominant Australian and South American (Chile/Argentina) supply regions.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Lithium spot prices decline pressuring realized revenue margins
  • Production ramp at Grota do Cirilo mine meets output targets
  • EV battery demand growth drives lithium offtake agreements
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: -27.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.48 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -123.7% < 20% (prev -34.02%; Δ -89.67% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 35.7m > Net Income -27.7m
Net Debt (372.2m) to EBITDA (31.7m): 11.75 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.34 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (111.8m) vs 12m ago 0.47% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.64% > 18% (prev 13.52%; Δ 34.12% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 34.89% > 50% (prev 39.86%; Δ -4.97% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.52 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)
Altman Z'' -3.85
A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 91.6m - Total Current Liabilities 267.1m) / Total Assets 477.3m
B: -0.56 (Retained Earnings -268.4m / Total Assets 477.3m)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 10.6m / Avg Total Assets 406.7m)
D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 82.2m / Total Liabilities 395.1m)
Altman-Z'' = -3.85 = D
Beneish M -2.83
DSRI: 1.81 (Receivables 32.2m/16.8m, Revenue 141.9m/134.0m)
GMI: 0.28 (GM 13.52% / 47.64%)
AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.15)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 141.9m / 134.0m)
TATA: -0.13 (NI -27.7m - CFO 35.7m) / TA 477.3m)
Beneish M = -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of SGML shares?

As of September 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.88 with a total of 3,156,041 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.82%, over one month by -22.31%, over three months by -40.00% and over the past year by +52.84%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.90 (which is 11% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is SGML a buy, sell or hold?

Sigma Lithium Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SGML.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SGML price?
Analysts Target Price 19.8 122.4%
Sigma Lithium Resources (SGML) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.07b (1.07b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 4.7214
P/S = 7.5049
P/B = 12.9947
Revenue TTM = 141.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 10.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 31.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 165.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 400.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 132.1m
Net Debt = 372.2m USD (calculated: Debt 400.1m - CCE 27.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.44b USD (1.07b + Debt 400.1m - CCE 27.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.52 (Ebit TTM 10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)
EV/FCF = 50.53x (Enterprise Value 1.44b / FCF TTM 28.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.98% (FCF TTM 28.5m / Enterprise Value 1.44b)
FCF Margin = 20.10% (FCF TTM 28.5m / Revenue TTM 141.9m)
Net Margin = -19.53% (Net Income TTM -27.7m / Revenue TTM 141.9m)
Gross Margin = 47.64% ((Revenue TTM 141.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 74.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.98% (prev 55.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.02 (Enterprise Value 1.44b / Total Assets 477.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.09% (Interest Expense 20.3m / Debt 400.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 8.39m (EBIT 10.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 91.6m / Total Current Liabilities 267.1m)
Debt / Equity = 4.87 (Debt 400.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 82.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.75 (Net Debt 372.2m / EBITDA 31.7m)
Debt / FCF = 13.05 (Net Debt 372.2m / FCF TTM 28.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 73.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.82% (Net Income -27.7m / Total Assets 477.3m)
RoE = -37.56% (Net Income TTM -27.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 73.8m)
RoCE = 12.27% (EBIT 10.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 73.8m + L.T.Debt 12.7m))
RoIC = 2.27% (NOPAT 8.39m / Invested Capital 368.7m)
WACC = 11.17% (E(1.07b)/V(1.47b) * Re(13.84%) + D(400.1m)/V(1.47b) * Rd(5.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 4.19 | Cagr: 0.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 69.42% ; FCFF base≈24.5m ; Y1≈28.1m ; Y5≈41.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.38 (EV 414.9m - Net Debt 372.2m = Equity 42.7m / Shares 112.6m; r=11.17% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.66 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -59.55 | Revenue CAGR: -17.91% | SUE: -1.12 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-64.04% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=-54.36% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+222.2% | GrowthRev=+127.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=+2.88% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+213.3% | GrowthRev=+96.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)