SGML Stock Analysis: Sigma Lithium Resources | NASDAQ

Lithium, Spodumene, Battery Materials, Mining

Total Rating 19

Safety 32

Buy Signal -1.63

Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: -21.6

Market Cap: 992M
Avg Turnover: 20.2M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility84.4%

VaR 5^th Pctl14.0%

VaR vs Median0.40%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.72

Rel. Str. IBD12.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group40.7 pctl

Character TTM

Beta2.371

Beta Downside1.706

Hurst Exponent0.526

Choppyness61.5%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD87.11%

CAGR/Max DD-0.35

CAGR/Mean DD-0.50

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -1.66
Qual. Beats: -1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -17.91%
Rev. Trend: -59.5%

Last SUE: -1.12
Qual. Beats: -2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Fakeout

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.2 years of data

Jan -5.8% 28

Feb +3.9% 28

Mar -7.5% 46

Apr -5.8% 7

May +0.0% 11

Jun -0.9% 12

Jul +3.1% 12

Aug +8.8% 32

Sep +0.6% 9

Oct +5.6% 11

Nov +0.1% 9

Dec -0.3% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SGML Sigma Lithium Resources

Sigma Lithium Corporation (NASDAQ: SGML) is a Canadian-domiciled mineral resource company focused on the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It operates in the upstream segment of the lithium-ion battery supply chain, targeting demand from electric vehicle manufacturers.

The company was previously known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and rebranded to its current name in July 2021. It is headquartered in Toronto, Canada, and completed its IPO on September 13, 2021. As a GICS-classified Materials issuer in the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, SGML is positioned as a small-cap equity with a market capitalization of approximately $1.12 billion USD.

Lithium mining operations in Brazil are concentrated in the countrys Eastern Minas Gerais region, where spodumene-bearing hard-rock deposits represent one of the Western Hemispheres larger identified lithium resources. As a producer of battery-grade lithium concentrate, Sigma Lithium sits in the resource extraction tier of the EV battery value chain, upstream from chemical conversion, cathode production, and cell manufacturing.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Lithium spot prices decline pressuring producer margins
Grota do Cirilo production ramp accelerates quarterly shipment volumes
EV battery makers expand offtake agreements securing long-term revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -27.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.48 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -123.7% < 20% (prev -34.02%; Δ -89.67% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 35.7m > Net Income -27.7m
Net Debt (372.2m) to EBITDA (26.3m): 14.17 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.34 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (111.8m) vs 12m ago 0.47% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.64% > 18% (prev 13.52%; Δ 34.12% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 34.89% > 50% (prev 39.86%; Δ -4.97% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.52 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)

Altman Z'' -3.85

A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 91.6m - Total Current Liabilities 267.1m) / Total Assets 477.3m
B: -0.56 (Retained Earnings -268.4m / Total Assets 477.3m)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 10.6m / Avg Total Assets 406.7m)
D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 82.2m / Total Liabilities 395.1m)
Altman-Z'' = -3.85 = D

Beneish M -2.83

DSRI: 1.81 (Receivables 32.2m/16.8m, Revenue 141.9m/134.0m)
GMI: 0.28 (GM 13.52% / 47.64%)
AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.15)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 141.9m / 134.0m)
TATA: -0.13 (NI -27.7m - CFO 35.7m) / TA 477.3m)
Beneish M = -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of SGML shares?

As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.53 with a total of 1,461,249 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.77%, over one month by -5.22%, over three months by -17.10% and over the past year by +25.81%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.70 (which is 9.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is SGML a buy, sell or hold?

Sigma Lithium Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SGML.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SGML price?

Analysts Target Price	11.3	32.8%

Sigma Lithium Resources (SGML) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 991.7m (991.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 5.1308
P/S = 6.9598
P/B = 13.8975
Revenue TTM = 141.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 10.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 26.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 12.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 165.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 400.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 132.1m
Net Debt = 372.2m USD (calculated: Debt 400.1m - CCE 27.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.36b USD (991.7m + Debt 400.1m - CCE 27.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.52 (Ebit TTM 10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.3m)
EV/FCF = 47.81x (Enterprise Value 1.36b / FCF TTM 28.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.09% (FCF TTM 28.5m / Enterprise Value 1.36b)
FCF Margin = 20.10% (FCF TTM 28.5m / Revenue TTM 141.9m)
Net Margin = -19.53% (Net Income TTM -27.7m / Revenue TTM 141.9m)
Gross Margin = 47.64% ((Revenue TTM 141.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 74.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.98% (prev 55.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.86 (Enterprise Value 1.36b / Total Assets 477.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.09% (Interest Expense 20.3m / Debt 400.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 8.39m (EBIT 10.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 91.6m / Total Current Liabilities 267.1m)
Debt / Equity = 4.87 (Debt 400.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 82.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.17 (Net Debt 372.2m / EBITDA 26.3m)
Debt / FCF = 13.05 (Net Debt 372.2m / FCF TTM 28.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 73.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.82% (Net Income -27.7m / Total Assets 477.3m)
RoE = -37.56% (Net Income TTM -27.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 73.8m)
RoCE = 12.27% (EBIT 10.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 73.8m + L.T.Debt 12.7m))
RoIC = 2.27% (NOPAT 8.39m / Invested Capital 368.7m)
WACC = 11.36% (E(991.7m)/V(1.39b) * Re(14.32%) + D(400.1m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(5.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 4.19 | Cagr: 0.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.88% ; FCFF base≈24.5m ; Y1≈28.1m ; Y5≈41.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.30 (EV 405.5m - Net Debt 372.2m = Equity 33.3m / Shares 112.6m; r=11.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.66 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -59.55 | Revenue CAGR: -17.91% | SUE: -1.12 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-47.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-11.25% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+208.5% | GrowthRev=+95.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=+10.07% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+288.6% | GrowthRev=+158.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)