(SGML) Sigma Lithium Resources - Ratings and Ratios
Lithium, Spodumene, Battery-Grade
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 155% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 229% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.09% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -47.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.604 |
| Beta | 1.619 |
| Beta Downside | 2.329 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 89.91% |
| Mean DD | 52.89% |
| Median DD | 67.25% |
Description: SGML Sigma Lithium Resources October 24, 2025
Sigma Lithium Corporation (NASDAQ: SGML) focuses on exploring and developing lithium projects in Brazil, holding 100 % of the Grota do Cirilo, Genipapo, Santa Clara, and São José properties. These four mineral-rights parcels span roughly 185 km² across the Araçuaí and Itinga districts of Minas Gerais, positioning the firm within the rapidly expanding lithium-ion battery supply chain for electric-vehicle manufacturers.
Recent disclosures indicate the company’s combined inferred resource exceeds 13 million tonnes of lithium-carbonate equivalent (LCE) and that a Phase 1 production target of ~30,000 tpa is slated for 2026, contingent on securing project financing. Brazil’s favorable mining tax regime and its status as a top-10 global lithium producer provide a macro-level cost advantage relative to peers in Australia and Chile, while domestic EV policy incentives are expected to boost local demand for battery-grade lithium.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find the ValueRay platform’s detailed model on Sigma Lithium worth reviewing.
SGML Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 659m |
| Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-09-13 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -41.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.33 of 5 |
SGML Dividends
Currently no dividends paidSGML Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -32.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.36 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.62 |
| Current Volume | 13829.1k |
| Average Volume | 5065.7k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-60.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 9.60m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 13.70pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -38.80% (prev 3.48%; Δ -42.28pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 20.2m > Net Income -60.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 0.60 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (111.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.68% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 10.76% (prev 40.69%; Δ -29.93pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 31.24% (prev 51.97%; Δ -20.73pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.29 (EBITDA TTM -36.2m / Interest Expense TTM 22.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -3.50
| (A) -0.14 = (Total Current Assets 95.0m - Total Current Liabilities 157.1m) / Total Assets 457.9m |
| (B) -0.72 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -328.4m / Total Assets 457.9m |
| (C) -0.10 = EBIT TTM -50.9m / Avg Total Assets 512.3m |
| (D) 0.38 = Book Value of Equity 125.2m / Total Liabilities 332.7m |
| Total Rating: -3.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.50
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.91% |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.51% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.87 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -5.89 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -24.55)% |
| 7. RoE -46.92% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 72.16% |
| 9. EPS Trend -9.24% |
What is the price of SGML shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +59.24%, over one month by +37.35%, over three months by +58.16% and over the past year by -35.03%.
Is SGML a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SGML price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.5 | -9.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.5 | -9.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.6 | -9% |
SGML Fundamental Data Overview November 15, 2025
P/E Forward = 19.9601
P/S = 4.9007
P/B = 6.1273
Beta = 0.08
Revenue TTM = 160.0m CAD
EBIT TTM = -50.9m CAD
EBITDA TTM = -36.2m CAD
Long Term Debt = 161.1m CAD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 76.3m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 233.9m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 213.3m CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.14b CAD (925.4m + Debt 233.9m - CCE 20.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.29 (Ebit TTM -50.9m / Interest Expense TTM 22.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.91% (FCF TTM 10.4m / Enterprise Value 1.14b)
FCF Margin = 6.51% (FCF TTM 10.4m / Revenue TTM 160.0m)
Net Margin = -37.52% (Net Income TTM -60.1m / Revenue TTM 160.0m)
Gross Margin = 10.76% ((Revenue TTM 160.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 142.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -39.53% (prev 28.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.49 (Enterprise Value 1.14b / Total Assets 457.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.20% (Interest Expense 5.14m / Debt 233.9m)
Taxrate = -0.0% (0.0 / -18.9m)
NOPAT = -50.9m (EBIT -50.9m * (1 - -0.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 95.0m / Total Current Liabilities 157.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 233.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 125.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.89 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 213.3m / EBITDA -36.2m)
Debt / FCF = 20.48 (Net Debt 213.3m / FCF TTM 10.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 128.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.11% (Net Income -60.1m / Total Assets 457.9m)
RoE = -46.92% (Net Income TTM -60.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 128.0m)
RoCE = -17.61% (EBIT -50.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 128.0m + L.T.Debt 161.1m))
RoIC = -14.55% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -50.9m / Invested Capital 350.0m)
WACC = 10.01% (E(925.4m)/V(1.16b) * Re(11.98%) + D(233.9m)/V(1.16b) * Rd(2.20%) * (1-Tc(-0.0)))
Discount Rate = 11.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.15% ; FCFE base≈10.4m ; Y1≈7.12m ; Y5≈3.54m
Fair Price DCF = 0.37 (DCF Value 41.0m / Shares Outstanding 111.3m; 5y FCF grow -36.97% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -9.24 | EPS CAGR: 30.49% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 72.16 | Revenue CAGR: 85.23% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for SGML Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle