SKWD Stock Analysis: Skyward Specialty Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.442m USD | 12M Return: 19.9% | US8309401029 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.9M
EPS Trend: 98.5%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 3.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SKWD) is a Houston, Texas-based insurance holding company that provides a diversified portfolio of commercial property and casualty (P&C) insurance products across the United States. Its offerings span general liability, excess liability, professional liability, cyber and media liability, commercial auto, workers compensation, property, agriculture, credit, and surety lines, as well as group accident and health coverage. The company also writes specialty reinsurance in property, agriculture, and credit, transferring portions of risk from primary insurers to its own balance sheet.
Founded in 2006 as Houston International Insurance Group, Ltd., the company rebranded to its current name in November 2020 and completed its initial public offering on January 13, 2023. As a commercial P&C carrier operating within the Financials sector, Skyward Specialty generates revenue primarily through earned premiums, with profitability dependent on underwriting discipline, claims management, and investment income earned on reserves held before losses are paid-a defining feature of the P&C insurance business model.
- Combined ratio improves on disciplined specialty underwriting
- Cyber and surety premiums drive double-digit organic growth
- Reinsurance costs rise as catastrophe exposure pressures margins
| Net Income: 187.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.61% < 20% (prev 143.6%; Δ -160.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 407.3m > Net Income 187.9m |
| Net Debt (-1.97b) to EBITDA (262.5m): -7.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (41.9m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.49% > 18% (prev 27.92%; Δ 6.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.51% > 50% (prev 29.01%; Δ 0.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 261.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 3.39b - Total Current Liabilities 3.66b) / Total Assets 6.78b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 365.9m / Total Assets 6.78b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 261.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.56b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 1.27b / Total Liabilities 5.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.47 = B |
| DSRI: 0.52 (Receivables 978.4m/1.44b, Revenue 1.64b/1.26b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 27.92% / 34.49%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.47) |
| SGI: 1.30 (Revenue 1.64b / 1.26b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 187.9m - CFO 407.3m) / TA 6.78b) |
| Beneish M = -3.34 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 58.32 with a total of 251,696 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.02%, over one month by +3.50%, over three months by -2.96% and over the past year by +19.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 56.10 (which is 3.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Skyward Specialty Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.08. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SKWD.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 70.6 | 21% |
P/E Trailing = 12.793
P/E Forward = 9.901
P/S = 1.4088
P/B = 1.9205
P/EG = 0.7245
Revenue TTM = 1.64b USD
EBIT TTM = 261.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 262.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 76.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 360.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 437.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.97b USD (calculated: Debt 437.2m - CCE 2.41b)
Enterprise Value = 468.1m USD (2.44b + Debt 437.2m - CCE 2.41b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.61 (Ebit TTM 261.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m)
EV/FCF = 1.16x (Enterprise Value 468.1m / FCF TTM 404.2m)
FCF Yield = 86.35% (FCF TTM 404.2m / Enterprise Value 468.1m)
FCF Margin = 24.64% (FCF TTM 404.2m / Revenue TTM 1.64b)
Net Margin = 11.45% (Net Income TTM 187.9m / Revenue TTM 1.64b)
Gross Margin = 34.49% ((Revenue TTM 1.64b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.97% (prev 32.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 468.1m / Total Assets 6.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.74% (Interest Expense 20.7m / Debt 437.2m)
Taxrate = 21.98% (52.9m / 240.8m)
NOPAT = 204.1m (EBIT 261.6m * (1 - 21.98%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 3.39b / Total Current Liabilities 3.66b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 437.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.52 (Net Debt -1.97b / EBITDA 262.5m)
Debt / FCF = -4.88 (Net Debt -1.97b / FCF TTM 404.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.38% (Net Income 187.9m / Total Assets 6.78b)
RoE = 16.84% (Net Income TTM 187.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.12b)
RoCE = 21.94% (EBIT 261.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.12b + L.T.Debt 76.6m))
RoIC = 6.01% (NOPAT 204.1m / Invested Capital 3.40b)
WACC = 5.87% (E(2.44b)/V(2.88b) * Re(6.26%) + D(437.2m)/V(2.88b) * Rd(4.74%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.72 | Cagr: 0.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.57% ; FCFF base≈390.5m ; Y1≈422.0m ; Y5≈517.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 223.2 (EV 7.93b - Net Debt -1.97b = Equity 9.91b / Shares 44.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 9.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.54 | EPS CAGR: 36.52% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 99.75 | Revenue CAGR: 26.02% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=+0.28% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.03 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+25.7% | GrowthRev=+39.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.53 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+36% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=24, down=7)