SMCI Stock Analysis: Super Micro Computer | NASDAQ

Computer Hardware | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.268m USD | 12M Return: -43.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

AI Servers, Storage Systems, Blade Servers, Workstations
Total Rating 16
Safety 37
Buy Signal -1.10
Computer Hardware
Industry Rotation: -23.3
Market Cap: 18.3B
Avg Turnover: 1.85B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility113%
VaR 5th Pctl15.8%
VaR vs Median-11.2%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Rel. Str. IBD9.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group6.8
Character TTM
Beta3.577
Beta Downside3.993
Hurst Exponent0.475
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD84.84%
CAGR/Max DD-0.02
CAGR/Mean DD-0.03
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SMCI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.08, "2021-09": 0.06, "2021-12": 0.09, "2022-03": 0.16, "2022-06": 0.26, "2022-09": 0.34, "2022-12": 0.33, "2023-03": 0.16, "2023-06": 0.35, "2023-09": 0.34, "2023-12": 0.56, "2024-03": 0.67, "2024-06": 0.63, "2024-09": 0.75, "2024-12": 0.6031, "2025-03": 0.31, "2025-06": 0.41, "2025-09": 0.35, "2025-12": 0.69, "2026-03": 0.84,
EPS CAGR: 19.29%
EPS Trend: 56.4%
Last SUE: 1.98
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of SMCI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1068.985, 2021-09: 1032.73, 2021-12: 1172.419, 2022-03: 1355.49, 2022-06: 1635.46, 2022-09: 1852.13, 2022-12: 1803.195, 2023-03: 1283.296, 2023-06: 2184.861, 2023-09: 2119.672, 2023-12: 5354.589, 2024-03: 5937.256, 2024-06: 5354.589, 2024-09: 5937.256, 2024-12: 5677.962, 2025-03: 4599.913, 2025-06: 5756.911, 2025-09: 5017.79, 2025-12: 12682.491, 2026-03: 10243.014,
Rev. CAGR: 65.05%
Rev. Trend: 91.0%
Last SUE: -1.93
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -2.1% 2
Feb +3.2% 5
Mar -2.1% 26
Apr +1.3% 0
May +13.9% 29
Jun +0.1% 0
Jul +8.3% 13
Aug -3.5% 32
Sep -4.3% 35
Oct -8.8% 36
Nov +12.8% 47
Dec -2.2% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SMCI Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) designs, develops, and sells server and storage solutions built on a modular, open-standard architecture, serving customers in the United States, Asia, Europe, and other international markets. The companys product portfolio spans liquid- and air-cooled AI servers with integrated GPUs for training and inferencing, a wide range of blade and multi-node systems (SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, BigTwin), storage systems, rackmount platforms, embedded 5G/IoT/Edge systems, MicroCloud servers, workstations, networking devices, and modular components such as server boards, chassis, and power supplies.

Beyond hardware, SMCI offers the Supermicro Server Management software suite, which provides remote management, power, update, and orchestration capabilities, and delivers a broad set of services including rack-level design-to-deployment for AI and HPC data centers, verification testing, training, on-site support, help desk, and warranty/maintenance programs. The company sells to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing end markets through a mix of direct sales, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and OEMs.

SMCI is classified within the Information Technology sector (GICS sub-industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals), the same sub-industry housing major peers such as Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Its emphasis on liquid-cooled GPU rack-scale solutions positions it as a direct beneficiary of growing AI infrastructure build-outs by hyperscalers and enterprises, where energy and density constraints are driving demand for advanced cooling. The company was incorporated in 1993, is headquartered in San Jose, California, and has been listed on NASDAQ since 2007.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • AI server demand surges on hyperscaler GPU cluster orders
  • Liquid cooling design wins boost data center rack revenue
  • Gross margin compression intensifies pricing competition with Dell and HPE
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 1.25b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.29 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -29.54 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 39.90% < 20% (prev 37.49%; Δ 2.41% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.29 > 3% & CFO -6.69b > Net Income 1.25b
Net Debt (5.50b) to EBITDA (1.76b): 3.12 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.66 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (673.6m) vs 12m ago 8.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: 8.39% > 18% (prev 11.27%; Δ -2.88% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 197.1% > 50% (prev 200.9%; Δ -3.73% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.68b / Interest Expense TTM 137.1m)
Altman Z'' 5.55
A: 0.57 (Total Current Assets 21.6b - Total Current Liabilities 8.12b) / Total Assets 23.5b
B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 4.49b / Total Assets 23.5b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 1.68b / Avg Total Assets 17.1b)
D: 0.48 (Book Value of Equity 7.58b / Total Liabilities 15.9b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.55 = AAA
Beneish M -1.55
DSRI: 2.03 (Receivables 8.44b/2.66b, Revenue 33.7b/21.6b)
GMI: 1.34 (GM 11.27% / 8.39%)
AQI: 0.80 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.56 (Revenue 33.7b / 21.6b)
TATA: 0.34 (NI 1.25b - CFO -6.69b) / TA 23.5b)
Beneish M = -1.55 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC
What is the price of SMCI shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.31 with a total of 25,045,000 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.00%, over one month by -7.06%, over three months by +9.01% and over the past year by -43.07%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.30 (which is 10.6% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).

Is SMCI a buy, sell or hold?

Super Micro Computer has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SMCI.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the SMCI price?
Analysts Target Price 37.3 31.6%
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 18.3b (18.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.8632
P/E Forward = 8.8574
P/S = 0.5421
P/B = 2.4055
P/EG = 0.9132
Revenue TTM = 33.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.68b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.68b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.10b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 32.7m
Net Debt = 5.50b USD (calculated: Debt 6.79b - CCE 1.29b)
Enterprise Value = 23.8b USD (18.3b + Debt 6.79b - CCE 1.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.25 (Ebit TTM 1.68b / Interest Expense TTM 137.1m)
EV/FCF = -3.47x (Enterprise Value 23.8b / FCF TTM -6.85b)
FCF Yield = -28.82% (FCF TTM -6.85b / Enterprise Value 23.8b)
FCF Margin = -20.33% (FCF TTM -6.85b / Revenue TTM 33.7b)
Net Margin = 3.70% (Net Income TTM 1.25b / Revenue TTM 33.7b)
Gross Margin = 8.39% ((Revenue TTM 33.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 30.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.95% (prev 6.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 23.8b / Total Assets 23.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.02% (Interest Expense 137.1m / Debt 6.79b)
Taxrate = 18.63% (285.5m / 1.53b)
NOPAT = 1.37b (EBIT 1.68b * (1 - 18.63%))
Current Ratio = 2.66 (Total Current Assets 21.6b / Total Current Liabilities 8.12b)
Debt / Equity = 0.90 (Debt 6.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.12 (Net Debt 5.50b / EBITDA 1.76b)
 Debt / FCF = -0.80 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.50b / FCF TTM -6.85b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 6.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.30% (Net Income 1.25b / Total Assets 23.5b)
RoE = 18.22% (Net Income TTM 1.25b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.85b)
RoCE = 12.42% (EBIT 1.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.85b + L.T.Debt 6.68b))
RoIC = 8.47% (NOPAT 1.37b / Invested Capital 16.1b)
WACC = 13.98% (E(18.3b)/V(25.1b) * Re(18.56%) + D(6.79b)/V(25.1b) * Rd(2.02%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 18.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.44 | Cagr: 6.81%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -6.85b)
 EPS Correlation: 56.42 | EPS CAGR: 19.29% | SUE: 1.98 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 91.02 | Revenue CAGR: 65.05% | SUE: -1.93 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=-1.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=2.60 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+26.0% | GrowthRev=+80.6%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=3.17 | Chg30d=-1.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+22.1% | GrowthRev=+30.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)