SMPL Stock Analysis: Simply Good Foods | NASDAQ

Packaged Foods | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.308m USD | 12M Return: -62.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Protein Bars, Nutrition Shakes, Protein Snacks, Confectionery
Total Rating 22
Safety 86
Buy Signal -0.39
Packaged Foods
Industry Rotation: +5.9
Market Cap: 1.31B
Avg Turnover: 28.5M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility53.5%
VaR 5th Pctl8.90%
VaR vs Median1.00%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Rel. Str. IBD5.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group5.8
Character TTM
Beta-0.274
Beta Downside0.120
Hurst Exponent0.466
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD75.54%
CAGR/Max DD-0.40
CAGR/Mean DD-1.09
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SMPL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-05": 0.43, "2021-08": 0.29, "2021-11": 0.43, "2022-02": 0.36, "2022-05": 0.44, "2022-08": 0.36, "2022-11": 0.42, "2023-02": 0.32, "2023-05": 0.44, "2023-08": 0.45, "2023-11": 0.43, "2024-02": 0.4, "2024-05": 0.5, "2024-08": 0.5, "2024-11": 0.49, "2025-02": 0.46, "2025-05": 0.51, "2025-08": 0.46, "2025-11": 0.26, "2026-02": 0.45, "2026-05": 0.36,
EPS CAGR: 0.02%
EPS Trend: 0.2%
Last SUE: 1.23
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of SMPL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-05: 284.001, 2021-08: 259.853, 2021-11: 281.265, 2022-02: 296.718, 2022-05: 316.531, 2022-08: 274.164, 2022-11: 300.878, 2023-02: 296.584, 2023-05: 324.792, 2023-08: 320.418, 2023-11: 308.678, 2024-02: 312.199, 2024-05: 334.757, 2024-08: 375.687, 2024-11: 341.268, 2025-02: 359.655, 2025-05: 380.956, 2025-08: 369.041, 2025-11: 340.198, 2026-02: 326.013, 2026-05: null,
Rev. CAGR: 7.72%
Rev. Trend: 95.1%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Shakeout

Seasonality 9.8 years of data

Jan -5.0% 38
Feb -0.6% 6
Mar -3.3% 25
Apr +3.0% 22
May -3.7% 23
Jun +1.8% 17
Jul +1.4% 0
Aug -2.5% 21
Sep -4.6% 24
Oct -2.0% 2
Nov +4.8% 52
Dec +1.7% 23

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SMPL Simply Good Foods

The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is a consumer-packaged food and beverage company that develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacement products across North America and international markets. The company operates a multi-brand portfolio including Quest, Atkins, and OWYN, offering items such as protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, and protein powders, along with confectionery products like peanut butter cups, brownies, and caramel candies.

SMPL distributes its products through a diverse omnichannel network spanning mass merchandise, grocery, drug, club, and convenience stores, as well as gas stations and company-owned e-commerce sites (questnutrition.com, atkins.com, liveowyn.com) and third-party platforms like Amazon. The company also licenses its brands and logos to other manufacturers, supplementing its direct-to-retail revenue stream.

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado and incorporated in 2017, Simply Good Foods operates within the GICS Consumer Staples sector, specifically the Packaged Foods & Meals sub-industry. The business targets the better-for-you snacking segment, which has benefited from rising consumer demand for protein-rich, low-sugar, and convenient food options-a defensive category that tends to maintain relatively stable demand through economic cycles.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • OWYN acquisition accelerates plant-based protein beverage growth
  • GLP-1 drug adoption pressures snack and confectionery consumption
  • Quest and Atkins brand sales drive protein nutrition category growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: -105.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.45 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 24.89% < 20% (prev 24.11%; Δ 0.78% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 173.4m > Net Income -105.7m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 5.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.3m) vs 12m ago -9.31% < -2%
Gross Margin: 32.85% > 18% (prev 37.09%; Δ -4.25% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 62.21% > 50% (prev 58.15%; Δ 4.06% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -7.01 > 6 (EBIT TTM -134.4m / Interest Expense TTM 19.2m)
Altman Z'' 3.85
A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 439.3m - Total Current Liabilities 86.9m) / Total Assets 2.13b
B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 456.4m / Total Assets 2.13b)
C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -134.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.28b)
D: 2.34 (Book Value of Equity 1.49b / Total Liabilities 635.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.85 = AA
Beneish M -3.11
DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 123.5m/157.1m, Revenue 1.42b/1.41b)
GMI: 1.13 (GM 37.09% / 32.85%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.77 / AQ_t-1 0.79)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.42b / 1.41b)
TATA: -0.13 (NI -105.7m - CFO 173.4m) / TA 2.13b)
Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of SMPL shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.77 with a total of 3,597,885 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.99%, over one month by +1.59%, over three months by +14.94% and over the past year by -62.50%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.40 (which is 10.7% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is SMPL a buy, sell or hold?

Simply Good Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMPL.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SMPL price?
Analysts Target Price 17.5 37%
Simply Good Foods (SMPL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.31b (1.31b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 7.9302
P/S = 0.8265
P/B = 0.8114
P/EG = 1.6428
Revenue TTM = 1.42b USD
EBIT TTM = -134.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -113.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.87m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 442.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 45.5m
Net Debt = 334.9m USD (calculated: Debt 442.4m - CCE 107.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.64b USD (1.31b + Debt 442.4m - CCE 107.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.01 (Ebit TTM -134.4m / Interest Expense TTM 19.2m)
EV/FCF = 11.25x (Enterprise Value 1.64b / FCF TTM 146.0m)
FCF Yield = 8.89% (FCF TTM 146.0m / Enterprise Value 1.64b)
FCF Margin = 10.31% (FCF TTM 146.0m / Revenue TTM 1.42b)
Net Margin = -7.46% (Net Income TTM -105.7m / Revenue TTM 1.42b)
Gross Margin = 32.85% ((Revenue TTM 1.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 951.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.28% (prev 32.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 1.64b / Total Assets 2.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.33% (Interest Expense 19.2m / Debt 442.4m)
Taxrate = 23.76% (32.3m / 135.9m)
NOPAT = -102.4m (EBIT -134.4m * (1 - 23.76%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.06 (Total Current Assets 439.3m / Total Current Liabilities 86.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 442.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.49b)
 Debt / EBITDA = -2.94 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 334.9m / EBITDA -113.8m)
 Debt / FCF = 2.29 (Net Debt 334.9m / FCF TTM 146.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.64% (Net Income -105.7m / Total Assets 2.13b)
RoE = -6.15% (Net Income TTM -105.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.72b)
RoCE = -6.35% (EBIT -134.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.72b + L.T.Debt 396.9m))
 RoIC = -5.19% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -102.4m / Invested Capital 1.97b)
 WACC = 4.59% (E(1.31b)/V(1.75b) * Re(5.02%) + D(442.4m)/V(1.75b) * Rd(4.33%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -15.56 | Cagr: -3.94%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈158.6m ; Y1≈139.1m ; Y5≈112.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.24 (EV 1.80b - Net Debt 334.9m = Equity 1.47b / Shares 90.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 0.20 | EPS CAGR: 0.02% | SUE: 1.23 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 95.06 | Revenue CAGR: 7.72% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=-3.07% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=1.63 | Chg30d=-1.03% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-15.2% | GrowthRev=-8.1%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=1.74 | Chg30d=-2.19% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.9% | GrowthRev=-1.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=2, down=2)