(SMPL) Simply Good Foods - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US82900L1026
Stock: Protein Bars, Shakes, Snacks, Confectionery, Powders
Total Rating 35
Risk 92
Buy Signal -1.19
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.09% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -2.14 |
| Alpha | -62.42 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.463 |
| Beta Downside | 0.295 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 59.99% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.38 |
Description: SMPL Simply Good Foods January 12, 2026
The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is a Denver-based CPG firm that develops, markets, and sells a broad portfolio of high-protein snacks and meal-replacement products-including bars, ready-to-drink shakes, cookies, chips, powders, and confectionery-under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brands. Its distribution network spans mass-merchandise, grocery, drug, club, convenience, gas-station, and e-commerce channels, with direct-to-consumer sites and major platforms such as Amazon.
Key data points to note: SMPL reported FY 2023 revenue of roughly $1.0 billion, up ~12% YoY, driven by a 20% surge in e-commerce sales and expanding presence in the fast-growing U.S. protein snack market, which is projected to compound at ~8% annually through 2027. The company’s gross margin has hovered around 45%, reflecting premium pricing but also higher ingredient costs; inflationary pressure on protein inputs remains a material risk. A notable sector driver is the continued consumer shift toward health-focused, low-sugar alternatives, which underpins demand for SMPL’s “clean label” offerings.
For a deeper, data-rich look at SMPL’s valuation and risk profile, check out the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 90.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.36% < 20% (prev 24.85%; Δ 3.51% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 196.5m > Net Income 90.8m |
| Net Debt (250.2m) to EBITDA (156.1m): 1.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (99.1m) vs 12m ago -2.39% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.96% > 18% (prev 0.37%; Δ 3359 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.36% > 50% (prev 56.03%; Δ 3.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.77 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 156.1m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m) |
Altman Z'' 3.19
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 513.8m - Total Current Liabilities 102.6m) / Total Assets 2.45b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 616.1m / Total Assets 2.45b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 133.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.44b) |
| D: 0.86 (Book Value of Equity 614.5m / Total Liabilities 716.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.19 = A |
Beneish M -3.10
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 129.2m/149.7m, Revenue 1.45b/1.36b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 33.96% / 37.41%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.77 / AQ_t-1 0.79) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 1.45b / 1.36b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 90.8m - CFO 196.5m) / TA 2.45b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SMPL shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.33 with a total of 2,848,536 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.67%, over one month by -9.50%, over three months by -13.78% and over the past year by -53.16%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.67%, over one month by -9.50%, over three months by -13.78% and over the past year by -53.16%.
Is SMPL a buy, sell or hold?
Simply Good Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMPL.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SMPL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 28.5 | 64.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 28.5 | 64.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.6 | -15.8% |
SMPL Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 20.8556
P/E Forward = 9.9305
P/S = 1.2299
P/B = 1.0023
P/EG = 1.7641
Revenue TTM = 1.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 133.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 156.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.87m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 444.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 250.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.03b USD (1.78b + Debt 444.3m - CCE 194.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.77 (Ebit TTM 133.1m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m)
EV/FCF = 11.67x (Enterprise Value 2.03b / FCF TTM 174.2m)
FCF Yield = 8.57% (FCF TTM 174.2m / Enterprise Value 2.03b)
FCF Margin = 12.01% (FCF TTM 174.2m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Net Margin = 6.26% (Net Income TTM 90.8m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Gross Margin = 33.96% ((Revenue TTM 1.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 957.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.30% (prev 33.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 2.03b / Total Assets 2.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 4.29m / Debt 444.3m)
Taxrate = 25.28% (8.55m / 33.8m)
NOPAT = 99.5m (EBIT 133.1m * (1 - 25.28%))
Current Ratio = 5.01 (Total Current Assets 513.8m / Total Current Liabilities 102.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 444.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.60 (Net Debt 250.2m / EBITDA 156.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.44 (Net Debt 250.2m / FCF TTM 174.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.72% (Net Income 90.8m / Total Assets 2.45b)
RoE = 5.04% (Net Income TTM 90.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.80b)
RoCE = 6.06% (EBIT 133.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.80b + L.T.Debt 396.7m))
RoIC = 4.74% (NOPAT 99.5m / Invested Capital 2.10b)
WACC = 6.24% (E(1.78b)/V(2.23b) * Re(7.62%) + D(444.3m)/V(2.23b) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.21% ; FCFF base≈181.7m ; Y1≈224.1m ; Y5≈381.7m
Fair Price DCF = 104.8 (EV 9.95b - Net Debt 250.2m = Equity 9.70b / Shares 92.6m; r=6.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 42.81 | EPS CAGR: 2.16% | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.37 | Revenue CAGR: 3.71% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-05-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=1.95 | Chg30d=+0.036 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+1.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+0.078 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+12.7% | Growth Revenue=+3.8%
P/E Forward = 9.9305
P/S = 1.2299
P/B = 1.0023
P/EG = 1.7641
Revenue TTM = 1.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 133.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 156.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.87m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 444.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 250.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.03b USD (1.78b + Debt 444.3m - CCE 194.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.77 (Ebit TTM 133.1m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m)
EV/FCF = 11.67x (Enterprise Value 2.03b / FCF TTM 174.2m)
FCF Yield = 8.57% (FCF TTM 174.2m / Enterprise Value 2.03b)
FCF Margin = 12.01% (FCF TTM 174.2m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Net Margin = 6.26% (Net Income TTM 90.8m / Revenue TTM 1.45b)
Gross Margin = 33.96% ((Revenue TTM 1.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 957.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.30% (prev 33.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 2.03b / Total Assets 2.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 4.29m / Debt 444.3m)
Taxrate = 25.28% (8.55m / 33.8m)
NOPAT = 99.5m (EBIT 133.1m * (1 - 25.28%))
Current Ratio = 5.01 (Total Current Assets 513.8m / Total Current Liabilities 102.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 444.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.60 (Net Debt 250.2m / EBITDA 156.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.44 (Net Debt 250.2m / FCF TTM 174.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.72% (Net Income 90.8m / Total Assets 2.45b)
RoE = 5.04% (Net Income TTM 90.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.80b)
RoCE = 6.06% (EBIT 133.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.80b + L.T.Debt 396.7m))
RoIC = 4.74% (NOPAT 99.5m / Invested Capital 2.10b)
WACC = 6.24% (E(1.78b)/V(2.23b) * Re(7.62%) + D(444.3m)/V(2.23b) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.02%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.21% ; FCFF base≈181.7m ; Y1≈224.1m ; Y5≈381.7m
Fair Price DCF = 104.8 (EV 9.95b - Net Debt 250.2m = Equity 9.70b / Shares 92.6m; r=6.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 42.81 | EPS CAGR: 2.16% | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.37 | Revenue CAGR: 3.71% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-05-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=1.95 | Chg30d=+0.036 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+1.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+0.078 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+12.7% | Growth Revenue=+3.8%