SMPL Stock Analysis: Simply Good Foods | NASDAQ
Packaged Foods | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.090m USD | 12M Return: -35.4% | US82900L1026 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.0M
EPS Trend: -8.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 71.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.2 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is a U.S.-based consumer-packaged food and beverage company that develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacement products across North America and international markets. Its portfolio spans protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, powders, and confectionery items such as peanut butter cups and caramel candy bars, sold under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brands. The company operates a multi-brand strategy targeting better-for-you and low-carb consumer segments, distributing through mass merchandise, grocery, drug, club, convenience, and gas station retailers, as well as direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites like questnutrition.com, atkins.com, and liveowyn.com, plus third-party marketplaces including Amazon. Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, and incorporated in 2017, SMPL also licenses its brands and logos for use in third-party products.
As a member of the Consumer Staples sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats), the company operates in a defensive segment of the market, typically characterized by stable demand and lower cyclicality. Its brand-licensed and omnichannel retail-plus-DTC distribution model provides multiple revenue streams beyond traditional wholesale grocery.
- Quest brand protein bar sales accelerate across mass and club channels
- GLP-1 drug adoption pressures overall snacking category volumes and growth
- OWYN acquisition expands ready-to-drink protein beverage portfolio and household penetration
| Net Income: -155.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.23% < 20% (prev 22.68%; Δ 3.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 181.0m > Net Income -155.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 5.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (88.5m) vs 12m ago -12.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.29% > 18% (prev 35.07%; Δ -2.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 61.20% > 50% (prev 60.55%; Δ 0.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -8.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM -180.2m / Interest Expense TTM 21.4m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 433.5m - Total Current Liabilities 77.8m) / Total Assets 2.04b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 435.0m / Total Assets 2.04b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -180.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.22b) |
| D: 2.49 (Book Value of Equity 1.45b / Total Liabilities 584.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.91 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 137.0m/165.0m, Revenue 1.36b/1.45b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 35.07% / 32.29%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.74 / AQ_t-1 0.79) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 1.36b / 1.45b) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -155.9m - CFO 181.0m) / TA 2.04b) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.42 with a total of 1,145,418 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.40%, over one month by +19.08%, over three months by +14.89% and over the past year by -35.38%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.20 (which is 9.8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Simply Good Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SMPL.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12 | -3.4% |
P/E Forward = 8.2576
P/S = 0.8036
P/B = 0.7506
P/EG = 1.6428
Revenue TTM = 1.36b USD
EBIT TTM = -180.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -151.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 347.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.37m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 405.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.37m
Net Debt = 267.5m USD (calculated: Debt 405.9m - CCE 138.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.36b USD (1.09b + Debt 405.9m - CCE 138.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.40 (Ebit TTM -180.2m / Interest Expense TTM 21.4m)
EV/FCF = 8.65x (Enterprise Value 1.36b / FCF TTM 156.9m)
FCF Yield = 11.56% (FCF TTM 156.9m / Enterprise Value 1.36b)
FCF Margin = 11.57% (FCF TTM 156.9m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Net Margin = -11.49% (Net Income TTM -155.9m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Gross Margin = 32.29% ((Revenue TTM 1.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 918.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.00% (prev 32.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 1.36b / Total Assets 2.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.28% (Interest Expense 21.4m / Debt 405.9m)
Taxrate = 25.65% (10.5m / 41.0m)
NOPAT = -134.0m (EBIT -180.2m * (1 - 25.65%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.57 (Total Current Assets 433.5m / Total Current Liabilities 77.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.28 (Debt 405.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.45b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.77 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 267.5m / EBITDA -151.4m)
Debt / FCF = 1.70 (Net Debt 267.5m / FCF TTM 156.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.52b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.03% (Net Income -155.9m / Total Assets 2.04b)
RoE = -10.23% (Net Income TTM -155.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.52b)
RoCE = -9.63% (EBIT -180.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.52b + L.T.Debt 347.2m))
RoIC = -7.05% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -134.0m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 4.13% (E(1.09b)/V(1.50b) * Re(4.21%) + D(405.9m)/V(1.50b) * Rd(5.28%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 4.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -85.34 | Cagr: -5.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.36% ; FCFF base≈157.3m ; Y1≈157.2m ; Y5≈164.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 26.46 (EV 2.57b - Net Debt 267.5m = Equity 2.30b / Shares 86.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -0.61% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -8.25 | EPS CAGR: -0.63% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.84 | Revenue CAGR: 4.47% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-26.91% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2027-02-28): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=-17.91% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2027-08-31): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=-10.36% | Revisions=-75% | GrowthEPS=-10.4% | GrowthRev=-15.1%
EPS next Year (2028-08-31): EPS=1.64 | Chg30d=-11.12% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+7.6% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -75% (up=1, down=16)