SMTC Stock Analysis: Semtech | NASDAQ

Semiconductors | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.187m USD | 12M Return: 165.8% | US8168501018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal, Wireless, IoT
Total Rating 76
Safety 80
Buy Signal 1.68
Semiconductors
Industry Rotation: +22.7
Market Cap: 18.2B
Avg Turnover: 533M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility70.0%
VaR 5th Pctl11.7%
VaR vs Median1.79%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.61
Rel. Str. IBD98.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group89
Character TTM
Beta3.232
Beta Downside2.749
Hurst Exponent0.354
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD68.45%
CAGR/Max DD1.48
CAGR/Mean DD5.57
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of SMTC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-10": 0.74, "2022-01": 0.7, "2022-04": 0.8, "2022-07": 0.87, "2022-10": 0.65, "2023-01": 0.47, "2023-04": 0.02, "2023-07": 0.11, "2023-10": 0.02, "2024-01": -0.06, "2024-04": 0.06, "2024-07": 0.11, "2024-10": 0.26, "2025-01": 0.4, "2025-04": 0.38, "2025-07": 0.41, "2025-10": 0.48, "2026-01": 0.44, "2026-04": 0.51, "2026-07": 0.51,
EPS CAGR: 185.20%
EPS Trend: 82.2%
Last SUE: 3.59
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of SMTC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-10: 194.932, 2022-01: 190.55, 2022-04: 202.149, 2022-07: 209.254, 2022-10: 177.618, 2023-01: 167.512, 2023-04: 236.539, 2023-07: 238.372, 2023-10: 200.899, 2024-01: 192.948, 2024-04: 206.105, 2024-07: 215.355, 2024-10: 236.825, 2025-01: 251, 2025-04: 251.06, 2025-07: 257.589, 2025-10: 266.971, 2026-01: 274.4, 2026-04: 291, 2026-07: 341.9,
Rev. CAGR: 13.31%
Rev. Trend: 94.3%
Last SUE: 3.05
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

P/E Ratio 129.9
Strong Share Dilution

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader
Confidence
Tailwind
Pullback 52w

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.1% 7
Feb -1.1% 18
Mar -4.9% 31
Apr +0.1% 5
May +10.4% 35
Jun -2.7% 8
Jul +4.0% 43
Aug +0.7% 7
Sep -1.3% 11
Oct -5.6% 29
Nov +13.5% 33
Dec +0.7% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: SMTC Semtech

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) is a U.S.-based semiconductor company that designs and sells chips, modules, and connectivity solutions across three reporting segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. Its products support data center and enterprise networking, broadcast and professional audio/video, industrial and medical applications, and wireless infrastructure, with end customers including OEMs, solution providers, and industrial and high-end consumer markets. The company sells through a mix of direct sales personnel, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors, and is headquartered in Camarillo, California, where it was incorporated in 1960.

As a participant in the broader Information Technology / Semiconductors sub-industry, Semtech operates within a capital-intensive, design-driven chip market where competitors range from large fabless firms to integrated device manufacturers; its inclusion of gateways, routers, and cloud-based services within its IoT Systems and Connectivity segment reflects the industrys broader shift toward bundling hardware with recurring connectivity and software offerings.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Data center optical interconnect demand accelerates
  • LoRa IoT module revenue expands in industrial markets
  • Signal Integrity margin pressured by China competition
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 153.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.81 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 26.01% < 20% (prev 37.31%; Δ -11.30% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 202.4m > Net Income 153.9m
Net Debt (327.0m) to EBITDA (118.3m): 2.76 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.70 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.8m) vs 12m ago 16.25% < -2%
Gross Margin: 52.04% > 18% (prev 51.81%; Δ 0.23% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 76.93% > 50% (prev 70.88%; Δ 6.05% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.73 > 6 (EBIT TTM 87.0m / Interest Expense TTM 31.9m)
Altman Z'' 1.98
A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 742.8m - Total Current Liabilities 437.4m) / Total Assets 1.65b
B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -249.4m / Total Assets 1.65b)
C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 87.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.53b)
D: 0.83 (Book Value of Equity 748.9m / Total Liabilities 898.2m)
Altman-Z'' = 1.98 = BBB
Beneish M -2.95
DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 169.9m/153.5m, Revenue 1.17b/996.5m)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 51.81% / 52.04%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.48)
SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 1.17b / 996.5m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 153.9m - CFO 202.4m) / TA 1.65b)
Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of SMTC shares?

As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 187.49 with a total of 4,235,672 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.48%, over one month by +15.29%, over three months by +45.52% and over the past year by +165.79%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 161.20 (which is 14% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).

Is SMTC a buy, sell or hold?

Semtech has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.81. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SMTC.

  • StrongBuy: 14
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SMTC price?
Analysts Target Price 210.3 12.2%
Semtech (SMTC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 October 2026
Market Cap USD = 18.2b (18.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 129.92
P/E Forward = 53.1915
P/S = 15.4889
P/B = 21.7253
P/EG = 3.389
Revenue TTM = 1.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 87.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 349.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 149.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 531.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.06m
Net Debt = 327.0m USD (calculated: Debt 531.1m - CCE 204.1m)
Enterprise Value = 18.5b USD (18.2b + Debt 531.1m - CCE 204.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.73 (Ebit TTM 87.0m / Interest Expense TTM 31.9m)
EV/FCF = 102.0x (Enterprise Value 18.5b / FCF TTM 181.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.98% (FCF TTM 181.5m / Enterprise Value 18.5b)
FCF Margin = 15.45% (FCF TTM 181.5m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Net Margin = 13.11% (Net Income TTM 153.9m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Gross Margin = 52.04% ((Revenue TTM 1.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 563.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.76% (prev 51.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.24 (Enterprise Value 18.5b / Total Assets 1.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.01% (Interest Expense 31.9m / Debt 531.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 68.7m (EBIT 87.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.70 (Total Current Assets 742.8m / Total Current Liabilities 437.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.71 (Debt 531.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 748.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.76 (Net Debt 327.0m / EBITDA 118.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.80 (Net Debt 327.0m / FCF TTM 181.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 609.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.08% (Net Income 153.9m / Total Assets 1.65b)
RoE = 25.26% (Net Income TTM 153.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 609.4m)
RoCE = 9.07% (EBIT 87.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 609.4m + L.T.Debt 349.4m))
RoIC = 5.28% (NOPAT 68.7m / Invested Capital 1.30b)
WACC = 16.99% (E(18.2b)/V(18.7b) * Re(17.35%) + D(531.1m)/V(18.7b) * Rd(6.01%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 17.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.65 | Cagr: 21.94%
[DCF] Terminal Value 54.99% ; FCFF base≈160.7m ; Y1≈184.2m ; Y5≈271.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 13.54 (EV 1.59b - Net Debt 327.0m = Equity 1.26b / Shares 93.3m; r=16.99% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 82.16 | EPS CAGR: 185.2% | SUE: 3.59 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 94.26 | Revenue CAGR: 13.31% | SUE: 3.05 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=1.06 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+81% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+103.4% | GrowthRev=+41.6%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=5.86 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+68.4% | GrowthRev=+29.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +93% (up=38, down=0)