(SNCY) Sun Country Airlines - Ratings and Ratios
Passenger Flights, Cargo Flights, Charter Services, Aircraft Leasing
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 78.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.90% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 |
| Alpha | -22.73 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.534 |
| Beta | 1.889 |
| Beta Downside | 1.939 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.72% |
| Mean DD | 36.30% |
| Median DD | 39.19% |
Description: SNCY Sun Country Airlines October 23, 2025
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) operates a mixed passenger-and-cargo business across the United States, Latin America and select international routes. The carrier runs two reporting segments-Passenger and Cargo-and supplements its core airline service with crew, maintenance, insurance contracts and a loyalty program. As of 31 Dec 2024 the fleet comprised 63 Boeing 737-NG aircraft, of which 45 are configured for passengers, 12 for freight and six are leased to third parties.
Key operating metrics that analysts watch for Sun Country include its load factor (approximately 78 % in FY 2024, per industry estimates), average yield per revenue passenger-mile (around $0.13 USD) and cargo revenue per available ton-kilometer (roughly $0.05 USD). The airline’s cost structure is highly sensitive to jet-fuel price volatility-fuel typically accounts for 30-35 % of operating expenses-and to the availability of leisure travel demand, which drives its primary passenger base of VFR (visiting-friends-and-relatives) and tour-operator bookings. A recent quarterly filing showed a modest 4 % year-over-year increase in ancillary revenue from its loyalty program and charter services, indicating diversification beyond the thinly-priced scheduled market.
If you want to dig deeper into Sun Country’s valuation assumptions, cash-flow profile and comparative benchmarks, a quick look at the ValueRay platform can provide the granular data and scenario analysis you need.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (58.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 66.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.47pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.28% (prev -14.59%; Δ 6.31pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 168.8m > Net Income 58.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (463.9m) to EBITDA (231.5m) ratio: 2.00 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.76 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (55.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.38% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 56.86% (prev 17.37%; Δ 39.49pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 68.84% (prev 65.90%; Δ 2.94pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.74 (EBITDA TTM 231.5m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.78
| (A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 284.8m - Total Current Liabilities 376.4m) / Total Assets 1.60b |
| (B) 0.12 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 191.8m / Total Assets 1.60b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 133.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.61b |
| (D) 0.19 = Book Value of Equity 192.4m / Total Liabilities 993.7m |
| Total Rating: 0.78 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 67.71
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 11.61% |
| 3. FCF Margin 12.20% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.94 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.00 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.65)% |
| 7. RoE 13.03% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 65.93% |
| 9. EPS Trend 15.09% |
What is the price of SNCY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.56%, over one month by +16.68%, over three months by +8.64% and over the past year by -2.82%.
Is SNCY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SNCY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.8 | 19.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.8 | 19.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.3 | 3.2% |
SNCY Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.619
P/E Forward = 11.3636
P/S = 0.6892
P/B = 1.2353
Beta = 1.585
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 133.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 231.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 226.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 99.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 575.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 463.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.16b USD (762.4m + Debt 575.8m - CCE 176.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.74 (Ebit TTM 133.3m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m)
FCF Yield = 11.61% (FCF TTM 134.9m / Enterprise Value 1.16b)
FCF Margin = 12.20% (FCF TTM 134.9m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = 5.25% (Net Income TTM 58.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 56.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 477.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.57% (prev 66.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 1.16b / Total Assets 1.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.14% (Interest Expense 46.9m / Debt 575.8m)
Taxrate = 28.35% (614.0k / 2.17m)
NOPAT = 95.5m (EBIT 133.3m * (1 - 28.35%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 284.8m / Total Current Liabilities 376.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.94 (Debt 575.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 610.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.00 (Net Debt 463.9m / EBITDA 231.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.44 (Net Debt 463.9m / FCF TTM 134.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 446.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.62% (Net Income 58.1m / Total Assets 1.60b)
RoE = 13.03% (Net Income TTM 58.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 446.1m)
RoCE = 19.82% (EBIT 133.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 446.1m + L.T.Debt 226.6m))
RoIC = 10.55% (NOPAT 95.5m / Invested Capital 904.9m)
WACC = 9.90% (E(762.4m)/V(1.34b) * Re(12.98%) + D(575.8m)/V(1.34b) * Rd(8.14%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 12.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 51.80% ; FCFE base≈119.2m ; Y1≈78.3m ; Y5≈35.8m
Fair Price DCF = 7.35 (DCF Value 387.4m / Shares Outstanding 52.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 15.09 | EPS CAGR: -9.07% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 65.93 | Revenue CAGR: 11.04% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=+0.009 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.61 | Chg30d=-0.047 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+48.5% | Growth Revenue=+8.5%
Additional Sources for SNCY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle