(SPSC) SPS Commerce - Overview
Stock: Cloud Platform, Fulfillment, Analytics, Assortment, Supplier Management
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.38 |
| Alpha | -73.28 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.146 |
| Beta Downside | 0.515 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.32 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: SPSC SPS Commerce March 03, 2026
SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) delivers a cloud-based platform that links retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers and logistics providers, automating the end-to-end flow of orders, invoicing and analytics. Its core suite includes the SPS Commerce network, a Fulfillment solution that handles order-to-revenue processes, and an Analytics engine that cleanses and normalizes sell-through data. Complementary tools such as Assortment (for item-attribute translation) and Relationship Management (for supplier onboarding and score-carding) round out its offering, positioning the company as a one-stop hub for modern supply-chain digitization.
In its most recent fiscal year (2025), SPS Commerce generated $952 million in revenue, a 14% year-over-year increase driven by strong demand for B2B e-commerce integration. The firm reported an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run-rate of $1.28 billion and maintained a gross margin of 71%, underscoring the scalability of its SaaS model. Analyst consensus now projects FY 2026 revenue growth of 10-12% as enterprises accelerate supply-chain automation amid persistent freight-cost pressures and labor shortages.
Broader industry trends-such as the projected 12% CAGR growth in B2B e-commerce spend and rising investment in cloud-native supply-chain solutions-continue to fuel demand for platforms like SPS Commerce.
For a deeper, data-driven look at SPS Commerce’s valuation metrics, you might want to explore ValueRay’s latest analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 93.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.20% < 20% (prev 36.88%; Δ -21.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 178.8m > Net Income 93.3m |
| Net Debt (-141.3m) to EBITDA (179.1m): -0.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (37.8m) vs 12m ago -0.25% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 67.90% > 18% (prev 0.66%; Δ 6725 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.28% > 50% (prev 61.85%; Δ 6.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -40.56 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 179.1m / Interest Expense TTM -2.98m) |
Altman Z'' 4.87
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 268.6m - Total Current Liabilities 154.4m) / Total Assets 1.17b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 429.4m / Total Assets 1.17b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 120.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.10b) |
| D: 2.19 (Book Value of Equity 429.1m / Total Liabilities 196.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.87 = AA |
Beneish M -2.77
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 68.2m/52.0m, Revenue 751.5m/637.8m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 67.90% / 65.52%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.73 / AQ_t-1 0.59) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 751.5m / 637.8m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 93.3m - CFO 178.8m) / TA 1.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of SPSC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.88%, over one month by -18.92%, over three months by -23.48% and over the past year by -52.14%.
Is SPSC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SPSC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 82.1 | 28.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 82.1 | 28.2% |
SPSC Fundamental Data Overview March 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 67.1141
P/S = 3.0102
P/B = 2.2422
P/EG = 4.7094
Revenue TTM = 751.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 120.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 179.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.35m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -141.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.12b USD (2.26b + Debt 10.0m - CCE 151.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -40.56 (Ebit TTM 120.9m / Interest Expense TTM -2.98m)
EV/FCF = 13.93x (Enterprise Value 2.12b / FCF TTM 152.3m)
FCF Yield = 7.18% (FCF TTM 152.3m / Enterprise Value 2.12b)
FCF Margin = 20.26% (FCF TTM 152.3m / Revenue TTM 751.5m)
Net Margin = 12.42% (Net Income TTM 93.3m / Revenue TTM 751.5m)
Gross Margin = 67.90% ((Revenue TTM 751.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 241.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.46% (prev 69.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.81 (Enterprise Value 2.12b / Total Assets 1.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.72% (Interest Expense 1.28m / Debt 10.0m)
Taxrate = 28.18% (10.1m / 36.0m)
NOPAT = 86.8m (EBIT 120.9m * (1 - 28.18%))
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 268.6m / Total Current Liabilities 154.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 10.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 973.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.79 (Net Debt -141.3m / EBITDA 179.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.93 (Net Debt -141.3m / FCF TTM 152.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 950.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.48% (Net Income 93.3m / Total Assets 1.17b)
RoE = 9.82% (Net Income TTM 93.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 950.9m)
RoCE = 12.61% (EBIT 120.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 950.9m + L.T.Debt 7.19m))
RoIC = 9.13% (NOPAT 86.8m / Invested Capital 950.9m)
WACC = 10.14% (E(2.26b)/V(2.27b) * Re(10.14%) + D(10.0m)/V(2.27b) * Rd(12.72%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.16%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.43% ; FCFF base≈146.3m ; Y1≈178.3m ; Y5≈295.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 96.86 (EV 3.48b - Net Debt -141.3m = Equity 3.62b / Shares 37.4m; r=10.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.37% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 98.63 | EPS CAGR: 21.45% | SUE: 2.73 | # QB: 16
Revenue Correlation: 99.62 | Revenue CAGR: 17.51% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.10 | Chg7d=-0.011 | Chg30d=-0.011 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.49 | Chg7d=-0.032 | Chg30d=-0.032 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+5.2% | Growth Revenue=+6.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.08 | Chg7d=-0.076 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+13.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0.33 (4 Up / 2 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 6.0% (Discount Rate 10.1% - Earnings Yield 4.1%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = -0.1% (Analyst 5.9% - Implied 6.0%)