SPSC Stock Analysis: SPS Commerce | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.548m USD | 12M Return: -32.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 31.3M
EPS Trend: 99.9%
Qual. Beats: 16
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is a U.S.-based provider of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and founded in 1987 (formerly St. Paul Software, Inc., renamed in May 2001). The company operates a B2B SaaS model within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector, with a mid-cap market valuation.
Its core offering is the SPS Commerce platform, a cloud-based network that connects trading partners across the retail supply chain-retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers-automating the flow of order, invoice, and item data. The platforms value is driven by network effects: each new participant added to the network increases the utility of the service for existing customers, a defining characteristic of supply chain SaaS business models.
Beyond the core platform, SPS Commerce offers the Fulfillment solution (automating order-to-invoice workflows and revenue recovery), Analytics (data acquisition, cleansing, and normalization for sell-through insights), Assortment (standardizing item attributes across sales channels), and Relationship Management (supplier onboarding, change management, and scorecarding). Together, these solutions position the company as a full-service supply chain collaboration provider rather than a single-function software vendor.
- Recurring revenue growth drives subscription revenue beat
- Large enterprise retailer wins accelerate network expansion
- Operating margin guidance raised on operating leverage
| Net Income: 90.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.80% < 20% (prev 14.69%; Δ 8.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 194.4m > Net Income 90.9m |
| Net Debt (-147.7m) to EBITDA (181.5m): -0.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.12 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (37.4m) vs 12m ago -1.89% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.82% > 18% (prev 67.00%; Δ -0.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.14% > 50% (prev 60.39%; Δ 6.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 328.7m - Total Current Liabilities 154.9m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| B: 0.39 (Retained Earnings 449.2m / Total Assets 1.16b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 121.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.14b) |
| D: 4.83 (Book Value of Equity 962.2m / Total Liabilities 199.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.04 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 72.0m/63.4m, Revenue 762.1m/669.7m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 67.00% / 66.82%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 762.1m / 669.7m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 90.9m - CFO 194.4m) / TA 1.16b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 73.39 with a total of 1,402,471 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +20.00%, over one month by +28.37%, over three months by +30.77% and over the past year by -32.59%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 69.70 (which is 5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
SPS Commerce has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPSC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 67.5 | -8.1% |
P/E Trailing = 28.4426
P/E Forward = 68.0272
P/S = 3.3433
P/B = 2.6141
P/EG = 4.7094
Revenue TTM = 762.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 121.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 181.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.70m USD (estimated: total debt 6.62m - short term 1.92m)
Short Term Debt = 1.92m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.62m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 6.62m already included)
Net Debt = -147.7m USD (calculated: Debt 6.62m - CCE 154.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.40b USD (2.55b + Debt 6.62m - CCE 154.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 121.6m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 14.38x (Enterprise Value 2.40b / FCF TTM 166.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.95% (FCF TTM 166.9m / Enterprise Value 2.40b)
FCF Margin = 21.90% (FCF TTM 166.9m / Revenue TTM 762.1m)
Net Margin = 11.92% (Net Income TTM 90.9m / Revenue TTM 762.1m)
Gross Margin = 66.82% ((Revenue TTM 762.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 252.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.33% (prev 65.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.07 (Enterprise Value 2.40b / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 6.62m)
Taxrate = 25.29% (30.8m / 121.6m)
NOPAT = 90.9m (EBIT 121.6m * (1 - 25.29%))
Current Ratio = 2.12 (Total Current Assets 328.7m / Total Current Liabilities 154.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 6.62m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 962.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.81 (Net Debt -147.7m / EBITDA 181.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.88 (Net Debt -147.7m / FCF TTM 166.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 961.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.01% (Net Income 90.9m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 9.45% (Net Income TTM 90.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 961.2m)
RoCE = 12.59% (EBIT 121.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 961.2m + L.T.Debt 4.70m))
RoIC = 9.37% (NOPAT 90.9m / Invested Capital 970.1m)
WACC = 8.93% (E(2.55b)/V(2.55b) * Re(8.95%) + D(6.62m)/V(2.55b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 7.40 | Cagr: -0.23%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.12% ; FCFF base≈156.4m ; Y1≈179.3m ; Y5≈263.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 102.2 (EV 3.61b - Net Debt -147.7m = Equity 3.75b / Shares 36.7m; r=8.93% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.90 | EPS CAGR: 20.88% | SUE: 2.56 | # QB: 16
Revenue Correlation: 99.72 | Revenue CAGR: 18.19% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+1.02% | Revisions=-46% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.24 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=+79% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.74 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.20 | Chg30d=-0.39% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+9.9% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +53% (up=33, down=9)