(SPSC) SPS Commerce - Ratings and Ratios
Cloud Platform, Fulfillment, Analytics, Assortment, Community
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 54.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.50% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.64 |
| Alpha | -71.49 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.571 |
| Beta | 1.022 |
| Beta Downside | 0.511 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.78% |
| Mean DD | 18.47% |
| Median DD | 11.85% |
Description: SPSC SPS Commerce November 07, 2025
SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) delivers a cloud-based supply-chain management platform that connects retailers, grocers, manufacturers, distributors and logistics providers, enabling them to automate order-to-cash processes, manage omnichannel fulfillment, and extract analytics from partner-provided sell-through data.
Key product pillars include Fulfillment (which automates order receipt, invoicing and revenue recovery), Analytics (which cleanses and normalizes partner data for reporting), an Assortment tool that translates item attributes across sales channels, and a Community solution that streamlines supplier onboarding, change-management and score-carding.
From a financial perspective, SPS Commerce reported FY 2023 revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, representing a ≈ 15 % year-over-year increase driven largely by higher subscription ARR and strong net-retention (> 120 %). The business benefits from macro trends such as accelerated e-commerce adoption, persistent labor shortages in logistics, and the broader push toward digitizing supply-chain networks-factors that historically boost SaaS demand in the Application-Software sub-industry.
Analysts should watch the company’s churn rate, the scalability of its partner ecosystem, and the impact of any macro-economic slowdown on discretionary retail spend, as these variables materially affect future cash-flow generation.
For a deeper, data-driven dive into SPS Commerce’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, consider exploring the detailed research hub on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (85.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 43.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.30pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 21.32% (prev 32.41%; Δ -11.10pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 173.5m > Net Income 85.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-124.1m) to EBITDA (165.1m) ratio: -0.75 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (38.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 68.45% (prev 64.31%; Δ 4.14pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 67.51% (prev 60.98%; Δ 6.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -42.05 (EBITDA TTM 165.1m / Interest Expense TTM -2.61m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.81
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 315.6m - Total Current Liabilities 160.0m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| (B) 0.35 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 403.6m / Total Assets 1.16b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 109.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.08b |
| (D) 2.02 = Book Value of Equity 402.7m / Total Liabilities 199.7m |
| Total Rating: 4.81 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 77.28
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.05% |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.33% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.75 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.40)% |
| 7. RoE 9.23% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 99.82% |
| 9. EPS Trend 98.39% |
What is the price of SPSC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.69%, over one month by +2.02%, over three months by -24.24% and over the past year by -57.30%.
Is SPSC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SPSC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 98 | 17.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 98 | 17.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 63.6 | -24% |
SPSC Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 36.0357
P/E Forward = 67.1141
P/S = 4.1932
P/B = 3.2765
P/EG = 4.7094
Beta = 0.593
Revenue TTM = 729.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 109.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 165.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.64m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.62m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.64m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -124.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.94b USD (3.06b + Debt 9.64m - CCE 133.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -42.05 (Ebit TTM 109.6m / Interest Expense TTM -2.61m)
FCF Yield = 5.05% (FCF TTM 148.4m / Enterprise Value 2.94b)
FCF Margin = 20.33% (FCF TTM 148.4m / Revenue TTM 729.8m)
Net Margin = 11.66% (Net Income TTM 85.1m / Revenue TTM 729.8m)
Gross Margin = 68.45% ((Revenue TTM 729.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 230.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.49% (prev 68.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.53 (Enterprise Value 2.94b / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.23% (Interest Expense 1.28m / Debt 9.64m)
Taxrate = 21.21% (6.88m / 32.5m)
NOPAT = 86.4m (EBIT 109.6m * (1 - 21.21%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 315.6m / Total Current Liabilities 160.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 9.64m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 958.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.75 (Net Debt -124.1m / EBITDA 165.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.84 (Net Debt -124.1m / FCF TTM 148.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 921.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.34% (Net Income 85.1m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 9.23% (Net Income TTM 85.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 921.1m)
RoCE = 11.78% (EBIT 109.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 921.1m + L.T.Debt 9.64m))
RoIC = 9.38% (NOPAT 86.4m / Invested Capital 921.1m)
WACC = 9.78% (E(3.06b)/V(3.07b) * Re(9.78%) + D(9.64m)/V(3.07b) * Rd(13.23%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.47%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.80% ; FCFE base≈141.6m ; Y1≈172.6m ; Y5≈286.3m
Fair Price DCF = 95.43 (DCF Value 3.60b / Shares Outstanding 37.7m; 5y FCF grow 23.37% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 98.39 | EPS CAGR: 26.36% | SUE: 3.12 | # QB: 16
Revenue Correlation: 99.82 | Revenue CAGR: 17.80% | SUE: -3.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-0.017 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=-0.059 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+9.7% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
Additional Sources for SPSC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle