SPSC Stock Analysis: SPS Commerce | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.904m USD | 12M Return: -26.6% | US78463M1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.6M
EPS Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 16
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is a U.S.-based provider of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and founded in 1987 (formerly St. Paul Software, Inc., renamed in May 2001). The company operates a B2B SaaS model within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector, with a mid-cap market valuation.
Its core offering is the SPS Commerce platform, a cloud-based network that connects trading partners across the retail supply chain-retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers-automating the flow of order, invoice, and item data. The platforms value is driven by network effects: each new participant added to the network increases the utility of the service for existing customers, a defining characteristic of supply chain SaaS business models.
Beyond the core platform, SPS Commerce offers the Fulfillment solution (automating order-to-invoice workflows and revenue recovery), Analytics (data acquisition, cleansing, and normalization for sell-through insights), Assortment (standardizing item attributes across sales channels), and Relationship Management (supplier onboarding, change management, and scorecarding). Together, these solutions position the company as a full-service supply chain collaboration provider rather than a single-function software vendor.
- Recurring revenue growth drives subscription revenue beat
- Large enterprise retailer wins accelerate network expansion
- Operating margin guidance raised on operating leverage
| Net Income: 78.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.84% < 20% (prev 17.26%; Δ 6.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 228.1m > Net Income 78.0m |
| Net Debt (-166.9m) to EBITDA (183.2m): -0.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (37.0m) vs 12m ago -2.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.82% > 18% (prev 68.17%; Δ 1.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.77% > 50% (prev 62.75%; Δ 6.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 330.4m - Total Current Liabilities 146.3m) / Total Assets 1.13b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 456.0m / Total Assets 1.13b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.12b) |
| D: 5.02 (Book Value of Equity 938.5m / Total Liabilities 186.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.40 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 63.7m/67.5m, Revenue 772.5m/703.5m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 68.17% / 69.82%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.72) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 772.5m / 703.5m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 78.0m - CFO 228.1m) / TA 1.13b) |
| Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.74 with a total of 1,050,294 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.56%, over one month by +3.05%, over three months by +50.08% and over the past year by -26.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 75.20 (which is 5.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
SPS Commerce has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SPSC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 75.5 | -5.4% |
P/E Trailing = 39.3561
P/E Forward = 68.0272
P/S = 3.7599
P/B = 3.1453
P/EG = 4.7094
Revenue TTM = 772.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 122.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 183.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.77m USD (estimated: total debt 6.31m - short term 1.54m)
Short Term Debt = 1.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.31m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 6.31m already included)
Net Debt = -166.9m USD (calculated: Debt 6.31m - CCE 173.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.74b USD (2.90b + Debt 6.31m - CCE 173.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.99 (Ebit TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m)
EV/FCF = 13.78x (Enterprise Value 2.74b / FCF TTM 198.7m)
FCF Yield = 7.26% (FCF TTM 198.7m / Enterprise Value 2.74b)
FCF Margin = 25.72% (FCF TTM 198.7m / Revenue TTM 772.5m)
Net Margin = 10.10% (Net Income TTM 78.0m / Revenue TTM 772.5m)
Gross Margin = 69.82% ((Revenue TTM 772.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 233.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.16% (prev 69.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.43 (Enterprise Value 2.74b / Total Assets 1.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 277.5% (Interest Expense 17.5m / Debt 6.31m)
Taxrate = 25.57% (26.8m / 104.8m)
NOPAT = 91.0m (EBIT 122.3m * (1 - 25.57%))
Current Ratio = 2.26 (Total Current Assets 330.4m / Total Current Liabilities 146.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 6.31m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 938.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.91 (Net Debt -166.9m / EBITDA 183.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.84 (Net Debt -166.9m / FCF TTM 198.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 958.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.94% (Net Income 78.0m / Total Assets 1.13b)
RoE = 8.14% (Net Income TTM 78.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 958.4m)
RoCE = 12.70% (EBIT 122.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 958.4m + L.T.Debt 4.77m))
RoIC = 9.66% (NOPAT 91.0m / Invested Capital 942.1m)
WACC = 8.96% (E(2.90b)/V(2.91b) * Re(8.98%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -45.44 | Cagr: -0.78%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.02% ; FCFF base≈176.0m ; Y1≈201.7m ; Y5≈296.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 116.7 (EV 4.03b - Net Debt -166.9m = Equity 4.20b / Shares 36.0m; r=8.96% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.96 | EPS CAGR: 19.30% | SUE: 3.20 | # QB: 16
Revenue Correlation: 99.21 | Revenue CAGR: 17.07% | SUE: 1.16 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.23 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.90 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+14.8% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.33 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +51% (up=25, down=7)