(STOK) Stoke Therapeutics - Overview
Stock: Dravet Syndrome, Optic Atrophy, ASO Therapy, Upregulation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 77.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.60 |
| Alpha | 140.76 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.889 |
| Beta Downside | 0.815 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.69 |
Description: STOK Stoke Therapeutics January 25, 2026
Stoke Therapeutics (NASDAQ: STOK) is an early-stage biotech that pursues a “Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output” (TANGO) platform to up-regulate deficient proteins using antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs). Its pipeline centers on STK-002 (pre-clinical for autosomal dominant optic atrophy) and Zorevunersen (STK-001), an ASO in a combined Phase I/II study for Dravet syndrome. The company also holds collaborations with Biogen (Dravet program) and Acadia Pharmaceuticals (RNA-based neurodevelopmental diseases).
According to the most recent Form 10-Q (Q4 2025), Stoke reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly **$45 million**, giving it an estimated cash runway of **~18 months** at current burn rates. In June 2025 the company released interim safety data from the STK-001 trial, showing **no treatment-related serious adverse events** in the first 30 enrolled patients-a modest but positive signal for an ASO in a severe epileptic disorder. Industry analysts estimate the global ASO market will grow at a **12 % CAGR** through 2034, driven by FDA approvals of similar modalities (e.g., Spinraza, Tegsedi), which could expand the commercial upside for Stoke’s platform if clinical milestones are met.
Key uncertainties remain: the TANGO approach has yet to demonstrate efficacy in humans, the Phase I/II trial is still early-stage with limited efficacy read-outs, and the company’s commercial future hinges on the continuation of its Biogen and Acadia partnerships-both of which contain milestone payments that are contingent on regulatory progress. A material delay or failure in any of these areas would materially impair Stoke’s valuation.
For a deeper quantitative view of how Stoke’s risk-adjusted upside compares to peers, you might explore the analyst-grade metrics on **ValueRay**.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 40.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 43.41 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 112.2% < 20% (prev 1217 %; Δ -1105 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 52.8m > Net Income 40.6m |
| Net Debt (-80.5m) to EBITDA (33.1m): -2.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.6m) vs 12m ago 4.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 62.92% > 50% (prev 5.71%; Δ 57.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.59 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 33.1m / Interest Expense TTM 2.90m) |
Altman Z'' -7.99
| A: 0.64 (Total Current Assets 272.4m - Total Current Liabilities 41.7m) / Total Assets 360.3m |
| B: -1.22 (Retained Earnings -439.8m / Total Assets 360.3m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 30.7m / Avg Total Assets 326.8m) |
| D: -8.42 (Book Value of Equity -439.3m / Total Liabilities 52.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -7.99 = D |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.28 (Receivables 10.8m/691.0k, Revenue 205.6m/16.7m) |
| GMI: 0.74 (GM 97.94% / 72.83%) |
| AQI: 2.17 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 12.28 (Revenue 205.6m / 16.7m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 40.6m - CFO 52.8m) / TA 360.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 5.72 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of STOK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.79%, over one month by -8.01%, over three months by +44.19% and over the past year by +154.32%.
Is STOK a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the STOK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39.6 | 22.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39.6 | 22.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 31 | -4.3% |
STOK Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 204.0816
P/S = 8.5468
P/B = 5.6245
Revenue TTM = 205.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 30.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 33.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.91m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.91m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.91m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -80.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.51b USD (1.76b + Debt 2.91m - CCE 248.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.59 (Ebit TTM 30.7m / Interest Expense TTM 2.90m)
EV/FCF = 28.88x (Enterprise Value 1.51b / FCF TTM 52.4m)
FCF Yield = 3.46% (FCF TTM 52.4m / Enterprise Value 1.51b)
FCF Margin = 25.47% (FCF TTM 52.4m / Revenue TTM 205.6m)
Net Margin = 19.73% (Net Income TTM 40.6m / Revenue TTM 205.6m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 205.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.23m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.20 (Enterprise Value 1.51b / Total Assets 360.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.10% (Interest Expense 3000 / Debt 2.91m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 24.2m (EBIT 30.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 6.53 (Total Current Assets 272.4m / Total Current Liabilities 41.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 2.91m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 308.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.43 (Net Debt -80.5m / EBITDA 33.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.54 (Net Debt -80.5m / FCF TTM 52.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 305.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.41% (Net Income 40.6m / Total Assets 360.3m)
RoE = 13.28% (Net Income TTM 40.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 305.5m)
RoCE = 9.94% (EBIT 30.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 305.5m + L.T.Debt 2.91m))
RoIC = 7.93% (NOPAT 24.2m / Invested Capital 305.5m)
WACC = 9.17% (E(1.76b)/V(1.76b) * Re(9.19%) + D(2.91m)/V(1.76b) * Rd(0.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.18%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.73% ; FCFF base≈52.4m ; Y1≈51.8m ; Y5≈53.8m
Fair Price DCF = 14.91 (EV 771.4m - Net Debt -80.5m = Equity 851.9m / Shares 57.1m; r=9.17% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -1.77% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 46.24 | EPS CAGR: 76.71% | SUE: 1.04 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 61.81 | Revenue CAGR: 51.27% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.76 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.14 | Chg30d=-0.054 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-5554.4% | Growth Revenue=-87.2%