STRL Stock Analysis: Sterling Infrastructure | NASDAQ

E-Infrastructure, Transportation, Concrete Foundations, Site Development

Total Rating 73

Safety 71

Buy Signal 0.77

Engineering & Construction
Industry Rotation: +6.5

Market Cap: 16.3B
Avg Turnover: 253M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility73.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl12.1%

VaR vs Median-0.43%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.82

Rel. Str. IBD76.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group83.3

Character TTM

Beta2.899

Beta Downside2.164

Hurst Exponent0.418

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD54.10%

CAGR/Max DD1.72

CAGR/Mean DD6.62

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 59.00%
EPS Trend: 98.0%

Last SUE: 1.43
Qual. Beats: 11

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 19.28%
Rev. Trend: 87.9%

Last SUE: 1.69
Qual. Beats: 5

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -1.6% 8

Feb +2.7% 30

Mar -4.3% 55

Apr +0.5% 5

May +3.9% 23

Jun +6.1% 6

Jul +0.9% 7

Aug -1.1% 8

Sep +5.2% 22

Oct +1.4% 0

Nov +3.6% 14

Dec -4.4% 15

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: STRL Sterling Infrastructure

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (NASDAQ: STRL) is a U.S.-based construction and engineering company operating through three segments: E-Infrastructure Solutions, Transportation Solutions, and Building Solutions. The E-Infrastructure segment provides site development services for blue-chip end users in e-commerce distribution, data centers, manufacturing, warehousing, and power generation. The Transportation segment focuses on infrastructure development and rehabilitation for highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, rail, and storm drainage systems, serving departments of transportation and related authorities. The Building Solutions segment delivers residential and commercial concrete foundations, as well as plumbing and survey services for developers, general contractors, and residential builds.

The company is classified within the Industrials sector under the Construction & Engineering sub-industry, reflecting its project-based business model that spans both public infrastructure contracts and private commercial development. Sterling operates primarily across the Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States, as well as the Pacific Islands. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the company was formerly known as Sterling Construction Company, Inc. before adopting its current name in June 2022.

Headlines to Watch Out For

E-Infrastructure revenue surges on data center buildout
IIJA federal funding expands Transportation Solutions backlog
Residential housing weakness pressures Building Solutions margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0

Net Income: 431.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.13 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 4.00% < 20% (prev 15.72%; Δ -11.72% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 596.3m > Net Income 431.5m
Net Debt (-74.7m) to EBITDA (719.8m): -0.10 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.11 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.1m) vs 12m ago 1.13% < -2%
Gross Margin: 23.59% > 18% (prev 22.19%; Δ 1.40% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 128.4% > 50% (prev 98.94%; Δ 29.48% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 37.63 > 6 (EBIT TTM 627.1m / Interest Expense TTM 16.7m)

Altman Z'' 3.79

A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 1.43b - Total Current Liabilities 1.29b) / Total Assets 3.19b
B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 3.19b)
C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 627.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.68b)
D: 0.75 (Book Value of Equity 1.36b / Total Liabilities 1.80b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.79 = AA

Beneish M -2.14

DSRI: 1.42 (Receivables 933.9m/409.9m, Revenue 3.44b/2.14b)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 22.19% / 23.59%)
AQI: 1.27 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.34)
SGI: 1.61 (Revenue 3.44b / 2.14b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 431.5m - CFO 596.3m) / TA 3.19b)
Beneish M = -2.14 (Cap -4..+1) = BB

What is the price of STRL shares?

As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 523.33 with a total of 510,225 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.01%, over one month by +4.21%, over three months by -27.02% and over the past year by +48.34%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 453.10 (which is 13.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is STRL a buy, sell or hold?

Sterling Infrastructure has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy STRL.

StrongBuy: 8
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the STRL price?

Analysts Target Price	845.4	61.5%

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 16.3b (16.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 39.4541
P/E Forward = 19.6464
P/S = 4.7453
P/B = 11.6414
P/EG = 0.6336
Revenue TTM = 3.44b USD
EBIT TTM = 627.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 719.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 268.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 29.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 389.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 52.9m
Net Debt = -74.7m USD (calculated: Debt 389.8m - CCE 464.5m)
Enterprise Value = 16.2b USD (16.3b + Debt 389.8m - CCE 464.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 37.63 (Ebit TTM 627.1m / Interest Expense TTM 16.7m)
EV/FCF = 33.80x (Enterprise Value 16.2b / FCF TTM 480.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.96% (FCF TTM 480.6m / Enterprise Value 16.2b)
FCF Margin = 13.98% (FCF TTM 480.6m / Revenue TTM 3.44b)
Net Margin = 12.55% (Net Income TTM 431.5m / Revenue TTM 3.44b)
Gross Margin = 23.59% ((Revenue TTM 3.44b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.18% (prev 23.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.08 (Enterprise Value 16.2b / Total Assets 3.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.28% (Interest Expense 16.7m / Debt 389.8m)
Taxrate = 23.48% (141.3m / 601.7m)
NOPAT = 479.9m (EBIT 627.1m * (1 - 23.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.11 (Total Current Assets 1.43b / Total Current Liabilities 1.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 389.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.10 (Net Debt -74.7m / EBITDA 719.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.16 (Net Debt -74.7m / FCF TTM 480.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.11% (Net Income 431.5m / Total Assets 3.19b)
RoE = 36.67% (Net Income TTM 431.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.18b)
RoCE = 43.39% (EBIT 627.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.18b + L.T.Debt 268.7m))
RoIC = 27.25% (NOPAT 479.9m / Invested Capital 1.76b)
WACC = 15.88% (E(16.3b)/V(16.7b) * Re(16.18%) + D(389.8m)/V(16.7b) * Rd(4.28%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 16.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -21.21 | Cagr: -0.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 55.51% ; FCFF base≈462.7m ; Y1≈504.0m ; Y5≈628.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 138.1 (EV 4.15b - Net Debt -74.7m = Equity 4.22b / Shares 30.6m; r=15.88% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.24% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.00 | EPS CAGR: 59.00% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 11
Revenue Correlation: 87.88 | Revenue CAGR: 19.28% | SUE: 1.69 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=6.07 | Chg30d=-0.70% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.03 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+84.1% | GrowthRev=+64.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=25.40 | Chg30d=+0.47% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+26.8% | GrowthRev=+19.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=5, down=0)