SUPN Stock Analysis: Supernus Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ

ADHD Medication, Epilepsy Treatment, Parkinsons Therapy, Dystonia Therapy

Total Rating 57

Safety 54

Buy Signal -0.52

Pharmaceuticals
Sub-Industry Rotation: +4.4

Market Cap: 1.52B
Avg Turnover: 82.0M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility51.7%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.53%

VaR vs Median-9.25%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.64

Rel. Str. IBD58.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group34.4 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.516

Beta Downside-0.291

Hurst Exponent0.488

Choppyness47.3%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD67.57%

CAGR/Max DD0.43

CAGR/Mean DD1.20

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 3.60%
EPS Trend: 20.9%

Last SUE: 1.45
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 7.38%
Rev. Trend: 93.3%

Last SUE: 0.74
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026

Jan +0.3% 0

Feb +0.3% 4

Mar -4.0% 4

Apr +6.4% 47

May -0.5% 4

Jun +0.3% 4

Jul +3.9% 4

Aug +0.4% 0

Sep -12.6% 14

Oct -0.9% 0

Nov -0.7% 9

Dec +0.8% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.

Description: SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals

Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a U.S. biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes treatments for central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Its marketed portfolio includes Qelbree (ADHD), GOCOVRI and APOKYN (Parkinsons disease), Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR (epilepsy and migraine), XADAGO (Parkinsons), and MYOBLOC (cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea). The company distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors.

The companys pipeline features ONAPGO, which received FDA approval for motor fluctuations in advanced Parkinsons disease, along with earlier-stage candidates SPN-817 (Phase 2 epilepsy), SPN-820 (Phase 2 treatment-resistant depression, partnered with Navitor Inc.), and SPN-443 (Phase 1 ADHD). Supernus was incorporated in 2005, is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland, and trades on NASDAQ under the ticker SUPN.

As a mid-cap specialty pharmaceutical company, Supernus operates within the broader pharmaceuticals sub-industry, focusing narrowly on CNS therapeutics-a therapeutic area where specialized sales forces typically target neurologists, psychiatrists, and movement disorder specialists rather than primary care prescribers. Its reliance on extended-release and specialty formulations reflects a common strategy among neurology-focused pharma firms seeking differentiation through improved dosing convenience and adherence.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Qelbree ADHD prescriptions drive top-line growth
Trokendi XR generic competition pressures legacy revenue
ONAPGO launch expands Parkinsons treatment portfolio

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5

Net Income: 450.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.85 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -36.46% < 20% (prev -3.64%; Δ -32.82% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 96.0m > Net Income 450.0m
Net Debt (232.2m) to EBITDA (568.0m): 0.41 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.61 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (122.0m) vs 12m ago -5.43% < -2%
Gross Margin: 85.15% > 18% (prev 84.67%; Δ 0.48% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 100.00% > 50% (prev 83.40%; Δ 16.60% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 32.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 555.0m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m)

Altman Z'' -0.28

A: -0.38 (Total Current Assets 800.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.30b) / Total Assets 1.33b
B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -197.0m / Total Assets 1.33b)
C: 0.40 (EBIT TTM 555.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.37b)
D: -0.04 (Book Value of Equity -60.0m / Total Liabilities 1.39b)
Altman-Z'' = -0.28 = B

Beneish M -2.92

DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 286.0m/272.0m, Revenue 1.37b/1.18b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 84.67% / 85.15%)
AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.24)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.37b / 1.18b)
TATA: 0.27 (NI 450.0m - CFO 96.0m) / TA 1.33b)
Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of SUPN shares?

As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.45 with a total of 3,072,550 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.40%, over one month by +5.26%, over three months by -1.23% and over the past year by +22.16%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.40 (which is 7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is SUPN a buy, sell or hold?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SUPN.

StrongBuy: 3
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the SUPN price?

Analysts Target Price	55.3	87.9%

Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 09 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 1.52b (1.52b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 20.1613
P/S = 1.1088
P/B = 1.4344
P/EG = 1.47
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 555.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 568.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.00m USD (estimated: total debt 501.0m - short term 495.0m)
Short Term Debt = 495.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 537.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 36.2m
Net Debt = 232.2m USD (calculated: Debt 537.2m - CCE 305.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.76b USD (1.52b + Debt 537.2m - CCE 305.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 32.65 (Ebit TTM 555.0m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m)
EV/FCF = 56.63x (Enterprise Value 1.76b / FCF TTM 31.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.77% (FCF TTM 31.0m / Enterprise Value 1.76b)
FCF Margin = 2.26% (FCF TTM 31.0m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = 32.75% (Net Income TTM 450.0m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 85.15% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 204.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.67% (prev 85.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.32 (Enterprise Value 1.76b / Total Assets 1.33b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.16% (Interest Expense 17.0m / Debt 537.2m)
Taxrate = 16.36% (88.0m / 538.0m)
NOPAT = 464.2m (EBIT 555.0m * (1 - 16.36%))
Current Ratio = 0.61 (Total Current Assets 800.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.30b)
Debt / Equity = -8.95 (negative equity) (Debt 537.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -60.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.41 (Net Debt 232.2m / EBITDA 568.0m)
Debt / FCF = 7.49 (Net Debt 232.2m / FCF TTM 31.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -127.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 32.75% (Net Income 450.0m / Total Assets 1.33b)
RoE = -352.9% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 450.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -127.5m)
RoCE = -456.8% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 555.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -127.5m + L.T.Debt 6.00m))
RoIC = 101.5% (NOPAT 464.2m / Invested Capital 457.3m)
WACC = 6.15% (E(1.52b)/V(2.06b) * Re(7.38%) + D(537.2m)/V(2.06b) * Rd(3.16%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 7.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -57.70 | Cagr: -4.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈70.6m ; Y1≈61.9m ; Y5≈50.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.80 (EV 802.9m - Net Debt 232.2m = Equity 570.7m / Shares 58.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 20.88 | EPS CAGR: 3.60% | SUE: 1.45 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.29 | Revenue CAGR: 7.38% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-22.48% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.44 | Chg30d=-21.97% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+37.6% | GrowthRev=+35.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.95 | Chg30d=-19.20% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+14.7% | GrowthRev=+44.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)