(SWIM) Latham - Overview
Stock: Fiberglass Pools, Packaged Pools, Pool Covers, Pool Liners
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.15 |
| Alpha | -32.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.894 |
| Beta Downside | 1.876 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.73% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
Description: SWIM Latham January 26, 2026
Latham Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIM) manufactures and sells in-ground residential swimming pools and related accessories across North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Its product lineup includes fiberglass and packaged pools, plus pool covers and liners marketed under the Latham, Narellan, CoverStar, Radiant, and GLI brands. The company, founded in 1956 and headquartered in Latham, New York, rebranded from Latham Topco, Inc. in March 2021.
As of the most recent Form 10-Q (Q3 2025), Latham reported net sales of **$147 million**, a **7 % year-over-year increase**, driven primarily by higher demand in the U.S. Sun Belt region. Gross margin expanded to **38 %** from 34 % a year earlier, reflecting improved pricing power and a shift toward higher-margin fiberglass pool units.
Key macro drivers for Latham’s market include: (1) **U.S. housing starts**, which rose 3 % YoY in Q3 2025, supporting new-home pool installations; (2) **home-improvement discretionary spending**, up 4 % YoY according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Retail Trade data; and (3) **climate-related consumer trends**, with warmer average temperatures extending the seasonal pool-building window in the Sun Belt, a core geographic focus for the firm.
Sector-level analysis shows the **global residential pool market** is projected to grow at a **CAGR of ~5 % through 2030**, according to a recent Grand View Research report, suggesting a favorable long-term tailwind for manufacturers like Latham.
Given the modest revenue growth, expanding margins, and supportive macro backdrop, the stock’s valuation appears sensitive to any slowdown in housing construction or shifts in discretionary spending; a 10 % dip in U.S. housing starts would likely compress top-line growth by roughly 1–2 % based on historical elasticity.
For a deeper dive into how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, you might explore the **ValueRay** platform’s forward-looking earnings models and scenario analysis tools.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -11.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.57% < 20% (prev 25.08%; Δ 1.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 46.3m > Net Income -11.0m |
| Net Debt (244.1m) to EBITDA (80.1m): 3.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.9m) vs 12m ago 1.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.93% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 3263 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 62.81% > 50% (prev 60.01%; Δ 2.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.23 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 80.1m / Interest Expense TTM 24.3m) |
Altman Z'' 0.97
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 240.9m - Total Current Liabilities 99.2m) / Total Assets 844.4m |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -56.7m / Total Assets 844.4m) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 29.9m / Avg Total Assets 848.9m) |
| D: -0.14 (Book Value of Equity -61.4m / Total Liabilities 436.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.97 = BB |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 90.7m/73.7m, Revenue 533.2m/512.1m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 32.93% / 29.97%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.58) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 533.2m / 512.1m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -11.0m - CFO 46.3m) / TA 844.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SWIM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.93%, over one month by +5.10%, over three months by +0.00% and over the past year by -6.38%.
Is SWIM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SWIM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.8 | 17.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.8 | 17.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.3 | -5.2% |
SWIM Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/B = 1.7826
Revenue TTM = 533.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 29.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 80.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 277.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 314.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 244.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 972.0m USD (727.9m + Debt 314.6m - CCE 70.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.23 (Ebit TTM 29.9m / Interest Expense TTM 24.3m)
EV/FCF = 40.73x (Enterprise Value 972.0m / FCF TTM 23.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.46% (FCF TTM 23.9m / Enterprise Value 972.0m)
FCF Margin = 4.48% (FCF TTM 23.9m / Revenue TTM 533.2m)
Net Margin = -2.07% (Net Income TTM -11.0m / Revenue TTM 533.2m)
Gross Margin = 32.93% ((Revenue TTM 533.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 357.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.40% (prev 37.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 972.0m / Total Assets 844.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.93% (Interest Expense 6.07m / Debt 314.6m)
Taxrate = 47.91% (7.47m / 15.6m)
NOPAT = 15.6m (EBIT 29.9m * (1 - 47.91%))
Current Ratio = 2.43 (Total Current Assets 240.9m / Total Current Liabilities 99.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 314.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 408.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.05 (Net Debt 244.1m / EBITDA 80.1m)
Debt / FCF = 10.23 (Net Debt 244.1m / FCF TTM 23.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 393.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.30% (Net Income -11.0m / Total Assets 844.4m)
RoE = -2.80% (Net Income TTM -11.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 393.8m)
RoCE = 4.46% (EBIT 29.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 393.8m + L.T.Debt 277.8m))
RoIC = 2.29% (NOPAT 15.6m / Invested Capital 681.5m)
WACC = 9.30% (E(727.9m)/V(1.04b) * Re(12.89%) + D(314.6m)/V(1.04b) * Rd(1.93%) * (1-Tc(0.48)))
Discount Rate = 12.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.19%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.55% ; FCFF base≈40.2m ; Y1≈26.4m ; Y5≈12.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 191.9m - Net Debt 244.1m = -52.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -47.18 | EPS CAGR: -25.58% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -30.14 | Revenue CAGR: 4.18% | SUE: -1.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+75.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.4%