TARS Stock Analysis: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.815m USD | 12M Return: 76.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Ophthalmic Solutions, Blepharitis Treatment, Rosacea Therapy, Infectious Disease
Total Rating 41
Safety 70
Buy Signal -0.39
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +30.9
Market Cap: 2.82B
Avg Turnover: 46.5M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility56.3%
VaR 5th Pctl8.85%
VaR vs Median-4.56%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.39
Rel. Str. IBD57.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group48.8
Character TTM
Beta0.296
Beta Downside-0.077
Hurst Exponent0.587
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD47.28%
CAGR/Max DD1.27
CAGR/Mean DD3.57
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TARS over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.33, "2021-09": -0.76, "2021-12": -0.72, "2022-03": -0.98, "2022-06": -0.24, "2022-09": -0.84, "2022-12": -0.49, "2023-03": -0.88, "2023-06": -1.17, "2023-09": -1.28, "2023-12": -1.31, "2024-03": -1.01, "2024-06": -0.88, "2024-09": -0.61, "2024-12": -0.6, "2025-03": -0.64, "2025-06": -0.48, "2025-09": -0.3, "2025-12": -0.2, "2026-03": -0.16,
Last SUE: -0.85
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of TARS over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 22.017, 2021-09: 1.24, 2021-12: 0.338, 2022-03: 0.539, 2022-06: 15.277, 2022-09: 0, 2022-12: 10, 2023-03: 2.5, 2023-06: 15.277, 2023-09: 1.871, 2023-12: 13.076, 2024-03: 27.614, 2024-06: 40.813, 2024-09: 48.118, 2024-12: 66.408, 2025-03: 78.335, 2025-06: 102.66, 2025-09: 118.697, 2025-12: 151.668, 2026-03: 162.054,
Rev. CAGR: 230.81%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 6

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Extended 1w
Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 5.7 years of data

Jan -3.3% 10
Feb -1.4% 9
Mar -8.3% 11
Apr -4.0% 10
May -5.3% 26
Jun +2.6% 10
Jul -0.1% 0
Aug +7.6% 20
Sep +6.0% 23
Oct +14.3% 36
Nov +2.8% 26
Dec -2.7% 10

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TARS) is a US-based, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Irvine, California, founded in 2016 and listed on NASDAQ since October 2020. The company focuses on developing and commercializing therapeutics for eye care, with its lead product XDEMVY, a lotilaner ophthalmic solution approved for the treatment of demodex blepharitis. The product is sold through specialty pharmacies, distributors, clinics, hospitals, and federal healthcare programs, reflecting a specialty pharma distribution model that targets a limited prescriber base of eye care professionals.

Beyond XDEMVY, Tarsus is advancing a pipeline based on the lotilaner active pharmaceutical ingredient, including TP-04 in Phase 2 trials for ocular rosacea and TP-05 in Phase 2 trials for Lyme disease prevention, with additional pre-clinical work in malaria reduction. The company has also entered a development and license agreement with Xi An Grand Chang An Pharmaceutical to commercialize TP-03 in China for demodex blepharitis and meibomian gland disease, illustrating the common biopharma strategy of using regional partners to access foreign markets without bearing full commercialization costs domestically.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • XDEMVY sales trajectory drives near-term revenue and margin expansion
  • TP-05 Phase 2 results could unlock Lyme disease prevention market
  • Elevated cash burn rate pressures balance sheet amid commercial scaling
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -48.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.13 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 73.58% < 20% (prev 168.8%; Δ -95.23% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -16.5m > Net Income -48.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.74 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.0m) vs 12m ago 9.18% < -2%
Gross Margin: 90.44% > 18% (prev 92.99%; Δ -2.55% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 98.92% > 50% (prev 46.66%; Δ 52.25% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.91 > 6 (EBIT TTM -42.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.55m)
Altman Z'' 3.07
A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 537.2m - Total Current Liabilities 143.5m) / Total Assets 581.1m
B: -0.75 (Retained Earnings -433.6m / Total Assets 581.1m)
C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -42.0m / Avg Total Assets 540.9m)
D: 1.50 (Book Value of Equity 349.0m / Total Liabilities 232.2m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.07 = A
Beneish M -2.35
DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 117.2m/64.2m, Revenue 535.1m/233.7m)
GMI: 1.03 (GM 92.99% / 90.44%)
AQI: 0.83 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03)
SGI: 2.29 (Revenue 535.1m / 233.7m)
TATA: -0.05 (NI -48.3m - CFO -16.5m) / TA 581.1m)
Beneish M = -2.35 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of TARS shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 70.55 with a total of 1,347,522 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.16%, over one month by +18.29%, over three months by +2.60% and over the past year by +76.68%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 63.10 (which is 10.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).

Is TARS a buy, sell or hold?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.63. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TARS.

  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TARS price?
Analysts Target Price 94.1 33.4%
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.82b (2.82b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 106.383
P/S = 5.2618
P/B = 7.5074
Revenue TTM = 535.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -42.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -40.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 72.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 88.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -300.1m USD (calculated: Debt 88.7m - CCE 388.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.52b USD (2.82b + Debt 88.7m - CCE 388.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.91 (Ebit TTM -42.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.55m)
EV/FCF = -79.76x (Enterprise Value 2.52b / FCF TTM -31.5m)
FCF Yield = -1.25% (FCF TTM -31.5m / Enterprise Value 2.52b)
FCF Margin = -5.89% (FCF TTM -31.5m / Revenue TTM 535.1m)
Net Margin = -9.02% (Net Income TTM -48.3m / Revenue TTM 535.1m)
Gross Margin = 90.44% ((Revenue TTM 535.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 94.20% (prev 92.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.33 (Enterprise Value 2.52b / Total Assets 581.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.64% (Interest Expense 8.55m / Debt 88.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -33.2m (EBIT -42.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.74 (Total Current Assets 537.2m / Total Current Liabilities 143.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 88.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 349.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 7.47 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -300.1m / EBITDA -40.2m)
 Debt / FCF = 9.51 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -300.1m / FCF TTM -31.5m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 340.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.92% (Net Income -48.3m / Total Assets 581.1m)
RoE = -14.19% (Net Income TTM -48.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 340.0m)
RoCE = -10.17% (EBIT -42.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 340.0m + L.T.Debt 72.6m))
 RoIC = -8.07% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -33.2m / Invested Capital 410.9m)
 WACC = 7.04% (E(2.82b)/V(2.90b) * Re(7.02%) + D(88.7m)/V(2.90b) * Rd(9.64%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 14.07%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -31.5m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.85 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.91 | Revenue CAGR: 230.8% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 6
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=-36.63% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=-10.73% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.59 | Chg30d=+14.28% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+62.7% | GrowthRev=+54.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.87 | Chg30d=-2.82% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+583.5% | GrowthRev=+29.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -23% (up=7, down=12)