TARS Stock Analysis: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ

odex Blepharitis, Ocular Rosacea, Lyme Prevention, Malaria Reduction

Total Rating 42

Safety 27

Buy Signal -0.34

Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +11.4

Market Cap: 3.23B
Avg Turnover: 65.3M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility51.0%

VaR 5^th Pctl8.42%

VaR vs Median0.17%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.16

Rel. Str. IBD71.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group43.8 pctl

Character TTM

Beta-0.019

Beta Downside-0.318

Hurst Exponent0.506

Choppyness53.2%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD45.08%

CAGR/Max DD1.35

CAGR/Mean DD4.24

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 3.04
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 189.99%
Rev. Trend: 97.6%

Last SUE: 1.25
Qual. Beats: 8

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Pead

Seasonality 6.1 years of data, until 10/2026

Jan -5.4% 22

Feb -3.9% 0

Mar -9.0% 22

Apr -0.3% 5

May -7.0% 5

Jun -3.3% 0

Jul -5.2% 5

Aug +18.7% 5

Sep +3.7% 5

Oct +10.9% 5

Nov +11.6% 22

Dec +1.3% 5

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.

Description: TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

arsus Pharmaceuticals is a US-based, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapeutic candidates for eye care. Its lead product, XDEMVY, is a lotilaner ophthalmic solution approved for the treatment of Demodex blepharitis caused by Demodex mite infestation. The company sells its products to specialty pharmacies, distributors, and a range of healthcare channels including clinics, hospitals, retail pharmacies, and federal healthcare programs.

Beyond XDEMVY, Tarsuss pipeline includes TP-04, a lotilaner sterile aqueous gel formulation in Phase 2 trials for ocular rosacea, and TP-05, an oral lotilaner tablet in Phase 2 trials for Lyme disease prevention and pre-clinical studies for community malaria reduction. The company is also advancing the lotilaner active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) for broader applications in eye care and infectious disease prevention. Tarsus maintains a development and license agreement with Xi An Grand Chang An Pharmaceutical to commercialize TP-03 in China for Demodex blepharitis and meibomian gland disease.

The company operates within the specialty biopharmaceutical segment of the healthcare sector, targeting underserved ophthalmic indications with a single-asset-focused commercial model. XDEMVY was the first FDA-approved therapy specifically for Demodex blepharitis, addressing a previously unmet need in ocular surface disease. Incorporated in 2016 and headquartered in Irvine, California, Tarsus is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker TARS and reached mid-cap status following its 2020 IPO.

Headlines to Watch Out For

XDEMVY sales ramp drives commercial-stage growth in eye care
Pipeline advances: TP-04 and TP-05 Phase 2 readouts
Reimbursement coverage expansion boosts XDEMVY patient access

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5

Net Income: -702.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 19.21 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 32.00% < 20% (prev 105.1%; Δ -73.07% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 55.4m > Net Income -702.2m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.96 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (46.4m) vs 12m ago 8.95% < -2%
Gross Margin: 93.21% > 18% (prev 88.81%; Δ 4.40% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 131.2% > 50% (prev 68.49%; Δ 62.70% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -79.06 > 6 (EBIT TTM -686.5m / Interest Expense TTM 8.68m)

Altman Z'' -12.99

A: 0.43 (Total Current Assets 445.4m - Total Current Liabilities 227.1m) / Total Assets 505.5m
B: -2.22 (Retained Earnings -1.12b / Total Assets 505.5m)
C: -1.32 (EBIT TTM -686.5m / Avg Total Assets 520.0m)
D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 104.0m / Total Liabilities 401.5m)
Altman-Z'' = -12.99 = D

Beneish M -2.34

DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 102.1m/74.3m, Revenue 682.2m/366.1m)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 88.81% / 93.21%)
AQI: 1.82 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.03)
SGI: 1.86 (Revenue 682.2m / 366.1m)
TATA: -1.50 (NI -702.2m - CFO 55.4m) / TA 505.5m)
Beneish M = -2.34 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of TARS shares?

As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 73.83 with a total of 858,990 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.64%, over one month by -0.77%, over three months by +8.96% and over the past year by +1.43%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 69.20 (which is 6.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TARS a buy, sell or hold?

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TARS.

StrongBuy: 9
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TARS price?

Analysts Target Price	99.3	34.5%

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.23b (3.23b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 74.0741
P/S = 5.3303
P/B = 9.815
Revenue TTM = 682.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -686.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -683.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 72.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 88.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -220.9m USD (calculated: Debt 88.7m - CCE 309.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.01b USD (3.23b + Debt 88.7m - CCE 309.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -79.06 (Ebit TTM -686.5m / Interest Expense TTM 8.68m)
EV/FCF = 79.27x (Enterprise Value 3.01b / FCF TTM 38.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.26% (FCF TTM 38.0m / Enterprise Value 3.01b)
FCF Margin = 5.57% (FCF TTM 38.0m / Revenue TTM 682.2m)
Net Margin = -102.9% (Net Income TTM -702.2m / Revenue TTM 682.2m)
Gross Margin = 93.21% ((Revenue TTM 682.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 46.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 92.86% (prev 93.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.96 (Enterprise Value 3.01b / Total Assets 505.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.79% (Interest Expense 8.68m / Debt 88.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -542.3m (EBIT -686.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.96 (Total Current Assets 445.4m / Total Current Liabilities 227.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 88.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 104.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.32 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -220.9m / EBITDA -683.6m)
Debt / FCF = -5.82 (Net Debt -220.9m / FCF TTM 38.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 285.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -135.0% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -245.7% (Net Income TTM -702.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 285.8m)
RoCE = -191.6% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -686.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 285.8m + L.T.Debt 72.4m))
RoIC = -222.0% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -542.3m / Invested Capital 244.3m)
WACC = 5.65% (E(3.23b)/V(3.32b) * Re(5.59%) + D(88.7m)/V(3.32b) * Rd(9.79%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.37 | Cagr: 9.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈38.0m ; Y1≈38.1m ; Y5≈40.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.15 (EV 628.4m - Net Debt -220.9m = Equity 849.4m / Shares 46.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 3.04 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.63 | Revenue CAGR: 190.0% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 8
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=-0.56 | Chg30d=-846.67% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-5.79 | Chg30d=-0.40% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-264.4% | GrowthRev=+63.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.50 | Chg30d=-38.89% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+91.4% | GrowthRev=+24.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=0, down=1)