TARS Stock Analysis: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.984m USD | 12M Return: 52.9% | US87650L1035 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 52.4M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Qual. Beats: 7
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TARS) is a US-based, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Irvine, California, founded in 2016 and listed on NASDAQ since October 2020. The company focuses on developing and commercializing therapeutics for eye care, with its lead product XDEMVY, a lotilaner ophthalmic solution approved for the treatment of demodex blepharitis. The product is sold through specialty pharmacies, distributors, clinics, hospitals, and federal healthcare programs, reflecting a specialty pharma distribution model that targets a limited prescriber base of eye care professionals.
Beyond XDEMVY, Tarsus is advancing a pipeline based on the lotilaner active pharmaceutical ingredient, including TP-04 in Phase 2 trials for ocular rosacea and TP-05 in Phase 2 trials for Lyme disease prevention, with additional pre-clinical work in malaria reduction. The company has also entered a development and license agreement with Xi An Grand Chang An Pharmaceutical to commercialize TP-03 in China for demodex blepharitis and meibomian gland disease, illustrating the common biopharma strategy of using regional partners to access foreign markets without bearing full commercialization costs domestically.
- XDEMVY sales trajectory drives near-term revenue and margin expansion
- TP-05 Phase 2 results could unlock Lyme disease prevention market
- Elevated cash burn rate pressures balance sheet amid commercial scaling
| Net Income: -46.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 27.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 63.70% < 20% (prev 130.0%; Δ -66.30% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 79.7m > Net Income -46.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.4m) vs 12m ago 2.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.59% > 18% (prev 93.36%; Δ -2.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 109.6% > 50% (prev 59.70%; Δ 49.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM -37.6m / Interest Expense TTM 8.61m) |
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 562.0m - Total Current Liabilities 175.8m) / Total Assets 611.1m |
| B: -0.74 (Retained Earnings -452.1m / Total Assets 611.1m) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -37.6m / Avg Total Assets 553.1m) |
| D: 1.31 (Book Value of Equity 346.7m / Total Liabilities 264.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.65 = A |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 98.3m/60.2m, Revenue 606.3m/295.5m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 93.36% / 90.59%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 2.05 (Revenue 606.3m / 295.5m) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -46.5m - CFO 79.7m) / TA 611.1m) |
| Beneish M = -2.50 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.31 with a total of 490,775 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.68%, over one month by +14.18%, over three months by +26.67% and over the past year by +52.90%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 69.20 (which is 12.7% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.63. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TARS.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 94 | 18.5% |
P/E Forward = 82.6446
P/S = 6.5702
P/B = 10.5337
Revenue TTM = 606.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -37.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -35.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 72.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 88.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -361.0m USD (calculated: Debt 88.7m - CCE 449.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.62b USD (3.98b + Debt 88.7m - CCE 449.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.36 (Ebit TTM -37.6m / Interest Expense TTM 8.61m)
EV/FCF = 58.86x (Enterprise Value 3.62b / FCF TTM 61.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.70% (FCF TTM 61.5m / Enterprise Value 3.62b)
FCF Margin = 10.15% (FCF TTM 61.5m / Revenue TTM 606.3m)
Net Margin = -7.67% (Net Income TTM -46.5m / Revenue TTM 606.3m)
Gross Margin = 90.59% ((Revenue TTM 606.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 57.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.03% (prev 94.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.93 (Enterprise Value 3.62b / Total Assets 611.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.72% (Interest Expense 8.61m / Debt 88.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -29.7m (EBIT -37.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.20 (Total Current Assets 562.0m / Total Current Liabilities 175.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 88.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 346.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.25 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -361.0m / EBITDA -35.2m)
Debt / FCF = -5.87 (Net Debt -361.0m / FCF TTM 61.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 343.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.40% (Net Income -46.5m / Total Assets 611.1m)
RoE = -13.53% (Net Income TTM -46.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 343.5m)
RoCE = -9.02% (EBIT -37.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 343.5m + L.T.Debt 72.8m))
RoIC = -7.32% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -29.7m / Invested Capital 405.1m)
WACC = 6.31% (E(3.98b)/V(4.07b) * Re(6.28%) + D(88.7m)/V(4.07b) * Rd(9.72%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.28 | Cagr: 9.61%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈61.5m ; Y1≈61.8m ; Y5≈65.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 31.43 (EV 1.02b - Net Debt -361.0m = Equity 1.38b / Shares 43.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.17 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.43 | Revenue CAGR: 218.6% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 7
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.53 | Chg30d=+15.56% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.13 | Chg30d=+9.40% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-34.1% | GrowthRev=+58.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.33 | Chg30d=+40.06% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+209.1% | GrowthRev=+29.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)