TCBI Stock Analysis: Texas Capital Bancshares | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.540m USD | 12M Return: 22.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Treasury Management
Total Rating 36
Safety 50
Buy Signal -0.19
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 4.54B
Avg Turnover: 60.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility29.2%
VaR 5th Pctl4.91%
VaR vs Median2.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.71
Rel. Str. IBD52.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group21.3
Character TTM
Beta1.231
Beta Downside1.315
Hurst Exponent0.447
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD31.71%
CAGR/Max DD0.77
CAGR/Mean DD2.97
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TCBI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.31, "2021-09": 0.76, "2021-12": 1.19, "2022-03": 0.69, "2022-06": 0.59, "2022-09": 0.74, "2022-12": 0.87, "2023-03": 0.7, "2023-06": 1.33, "2023-09": 1.18, "2023-12": 0.65, "2024-03": 0.46, "2024-06": 0.8, "2024-09": -1.42, "2024-12": 1.43, "2025-03": 0.92, "2025-06": 1.63, "2025-09": 2.18, "2025-12": 2.08, "2026-03": 1.58,
EPS CAGR: 20.39%
EPS Trend: 21.6%
Last SUE: 0.18
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TCBI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 242.237, 2021-09: 238.972, 2021-12: 251.326, 2022-03: 228.812, 2022-06: 268.591, 2022-09: 347.404, 2022-12: 400.433, 2023-03: 422.569, 2023-06: 447.927, 2023-09: 472.641, 2023-12: 448.205, 2024-03: 458.697, 2024-06: 472.492, 2024-09: 337.762, 2024-12: 491.645, 2025-03: 471.733, 2025-06: 493.636, 2025-09: 529.198, 2025-12: 504.36, 2026-03: 488.36,
Rev. CAGR: 6.01%
Rev. Trend: 79.3%
Last SUE: 0.65
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.0% 2
Feb -0.5% 16
Mar -10.1% 58
Apr -1.0% 2
May -3.0% 25
Jun +2.6% 27
Jul +7.5% 28
Aug -1.1% 31
Sep -1.8% 23
Oct -1.2% 6
Nov +1.8% 6
Dec -0.3% 18

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) is the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, a full-service financial services firm serving businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals. Its offerings span commercial and consumer banking, investment banking (capital markets, M&A, syndicated finance), wealth management, treasury and payment solutions, and a wide range of lending products including commercial real estate, homebuilder finance, mortgage warehouse lending, and asset-based lending. The company operates primarily across major Texas metropolitan areas-Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio-with additional presence in California and New York, and has been headquartered in Dallas since its incorporation in 1996.

As a mid-cap regional bank within the Financials sector, TCBI follows the standard U.S. bank holding company structure, with the parent company regulated at the federal level and the subsidiary bank primarily exposed to Texas commercial banking markets. Regional banks like TCBI typically generate revenue from net interest income (loans and securities) supplemented by fee-based services such as treasury management, wealth advisory, and capital markets activities.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expansion as Fed rate hikes continue
  • Texas commercial real estate and homebuilder loan portfolio drives credit risk
  • Investment banking and capital markets revenue grows from financial sponsor coverage
  • Wealth management fee income scales as client AUM expands
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 357.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.56 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.27k% < 20% (prev -1.28k%; Δ 14.22% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 885.6m > Net Income 357.0m
Net Debt (-2.09b) to EBITDA (533.4m): -3.91 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.10 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.4m) vs 12m ago -2.51% < -2%
Gross Margin: 62.33% > 18% (prev 50.26%; Δ 12.07% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.21% > 50% (prev 5.65%; Δ 0.56% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 477.7m / Interest Expense TTM 716.3m)
Altman Z'' -4.50
A: -0.76 (Total Current Assets 2.96b - Total Current Liabilities 28.5b) / Total Assets 33.5b
B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 2.88b / Total Assets 33.5b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 477.7m / Avg Total Assets 32.4b)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 3.61b / Total Liabilities 29.9b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.50 = D
What is the price of TCBI shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 104.20 with a total of 470,036 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.44%, over one month by +3.58%, over three months by +7.00% and over the past year by +22.39%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 101.00 (which is 3.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TCBI a buy, sell or hold?

Texas Capital Bancshares has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.15. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TCBI.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the TCBI price?
Analysts Target Price 108.8 4.4%
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 4.54b (4.54b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.9906
P/E Forward = 13.6612
P/S = 3.6454
P/B = 1.381
P/EG = 1.4725
Revenue TTM = 2.02b USD
EBIT TTM = 477.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 533.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 878.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 330.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 878.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.09b USD (calculated: Debt 878.3m - CCE 2.96b)
Enterprise Value = 2.45b USD (4.54b + Debt 878.3m - CCE 2.96b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.67 (Ebit TTM 477.7m / Interest Expense TTM 716.3m)
EV/FCF = 2.78x (Enterprise Value 2.45b / FCF TTM 884.0m)
FCF Yield = 36.03% (FCF TTM 884.0m / Enterprise Value 2.45b)
FCF Margin = 43.86% (FCF TTM 884.0m / Revenue TTM 2.02b)
Net Margin = 17.71% (Net Income TTM 357.0m / Revenue TTM 2.02b)
Gross Margin = 62.33% ((Revenue TTM 2.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 759.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.07% (prev 64.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 2.45b / Total Assets 33.5b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 81.55% (Interest Expense 716.3m / Debt 878.3m)
 Taxrate = 23.50% (109.7m / 466.7m)
NOPAT = 365.4m (EBIT 477.7m * (1 - 23.50%))
Current Ratio = 0.10 (Total Current Assets 2.96b / Total Current Liabilities 28.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 878.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.91 (Net Debt -2.09b / EBITDA 533.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.36 (Net Debt -2.09b / FCF TTM 884.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.10% (Net Income 357.0m / Total Assets 33.5b)
RoE = 9.93% (Net Income TTM 357.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.60b)
RoCE = 10.68% (EBIT 477.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.60b + L.T.Debt 878.3m))
RoIC = 7.04% (NOPAT 365.4m / Invested Capital 5.19b)
WACC = 8.64% (E(4.54b)/V(5.42b) * Re(10.31%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.11 | Cagr: -2.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.04% ; FCFF base≈665.8m ; Y1≈763.2m ; Y5≈1.12b
[DCF] Fair Price = 416.1 (EV 16.1b - Net Debt -2.09b = Equity 18.2b / Shares 43.7m; r=8.64% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 21.59 | EPS CAGR: 20.39% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.30 | Revenue CAGR: 6.01% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.87 | Chg30d=-0.49% | Revisions=-21% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.07 | Chg30d=-0.68% | Revisions=-31% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.57 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=+46% | GrowthEPS=+11.3% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.33 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -2% (up=20, down=21)