(TCOM) Trip.com - Ratings and Ratios
Travel, Hotel, Flight, Tour, Ticketing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 64.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.64% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.37 |
| Alpha | 3.92 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.468 |
| Beta | 0.775 |
| Beta Downside | 0.785 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.08% |
| Mean DD | 10.97% |
| Median DD | 10.58% |
Description: TCOM Trip.com September 29, 2025
Trip.com Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:TCOM) operates a diversified travel-services platform that spans accommodation booking, transportation ticketing (air, rail, bus, ferry), packaged tours, travel insurance, and ancillary services such as airport lounge access, online check-in, and real-time flight tracking. Through its portfolio of brands-including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner-the company serves both leisure and corporate travelers in China and globally, offering end-to-end solutions from visa processing to corporate travel-management systems and open-platform APIs for ecosystem partners.
Key performance indicators (KPIs) from the most recent fiscal year (FY2023) show a 12% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) to roughly US$30 billion, driven primarily by a rebound in outbound Chinese travel and strong domestic tourism demand as COVID-related restrictions eased. The company reported a net profit margin of 4.5%, up from 2.8% in FY2022, reflecting higher contribution from higher-margin corporate travel services and a 15% lift in average order value per user. Sector-wide, the travel-tech industry is sensitive to macro-economic drivers such as China’s GDP growth (projected 5%-6% in 2025), consumer confidence, and currency fluctuations that affect outbound travel spend; regulatory changes in data privacy and cross-border e-commerce also pose material risk factors.
If you want a deeper, data-driven assessment of Trip.com’s valuation and risk profile, ValueRay’s analytics platform provides granular financial models and scenario analyses that can help you form a more quantitative view.
TCOM Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 48,738m |
| Sub-Industry | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines |
| IPO / Inception | 2003-12-09 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -3.20% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.64 of 5 |
TCOM Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | % |
| Payout Consistency | 15.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 1.7% |
TCOM Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 39.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.28 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.62 |
| Current Volume | 3306.6k |
| Average Volume | 1395.8k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (18.05b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.44b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.55pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 50.73% (prev 60.36%; Δ -9.64pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 19.62b > Net Income 18.05b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-18.63b) to EBITDA (17.53b) ratio: -1.06 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.33 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (695.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.12% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 80.86% (prev 81.48%; Δ -0.62pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 22.90% (prev 19.67%; Δ 3.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 13.11 (EBITDA TTM 17.53b / Interest Expense TTM 1.27b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.34
| (A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 116.52b - Total Current Liabilities 87.45b) / Total Assets 252.44b |
| (B) 0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 47.95b / Total Assets 252.44b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 16.70b / Avg Total Assets 250.13b |
| (D) 1.44 = Book Value of Equity 148.44b / Total Liabilities 102.96b |
| Total Rating: 3.34 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 72.60
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.22% |
| 3. FCF Margin 33.22% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.06 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.55)% |
| 7. RoE 12.53% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 80.49% |
| 9. EPS Trend 2.72% |
What is the price of TCOM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.32%, over one month by -2.20%, over three months by +10.49% and over the past year by +8.27%.
Is TCOM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 24
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TCOM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 83.9 | 20.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 83.9 | 20.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 86.9 | 24.5% |
TCOM Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.7885
P/E Forward = 17.8253
P/S = 0.8507
P/B = 2.2562
P/EG = 2.3601
Beta = -0.133
Revenue TTM = 57.29b CNY
EBIT TTM = 16.70b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 17.53b CNY
Long Term Debt = 10.94b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 28.20b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.68b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -18.63b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 306.25b CNY (346.59b + Debt 39.68b - CCE 80.02b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.11 (Ebit TTM 16.70b / Interest Expense TTM 1.27b)
FCF Yield = 6.22% (FCF TTM 19.03b / Enterprise Value 306.25b)
FCF Margin = 33.22% (FCF TTM 19.03b / Revenue TTM 57.29b)
Net Margin = 31.50% (Net Income TTM 18.05b / Revenue TTM 57.29b)
Gross Margin = 80.86% ((Revenue TTM 57.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.01% (prev 80.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.21 (Enterprise Value 306.25b / Total Assets 252.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 265.0m / Debt 39.68b)
Taxrate = 16.98% (998.0m / 5.88b)
NOPAT = 13.86b (EBIT 16.70b * (1 - 16.98%))
Current Ratio = 1.33 (Total Current Assets 116.52b / Total Current Liabilities 87.45b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 39.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 148.44b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.06 (Net Debt -18.63b / EBITDA 17.53b)
Debt / FCF = -0.98 (Net Debt -18.63b / FCF TTM 19.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 144.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.15% (Net Income 18.05b / Total Assets 252.44b)
RoE = 12.53% (Net Income TTM 18.05b / Total Stockholder Equity 144.03b)
RoCE = 10.77% (EBIT 16.70b / Capital Employed (Equity 144.03b + L.T.Debt 10.94b))
RoIC = 7.46% (NOPAT 13.86b / Invested Capital 185.70b)
WACC = 8.02% (E(346.59b)/V(386.27b) * Re(8.87%) + D(39.68b)/V(386.27b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 2.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.40% ; FCFE base≈19.03b ; Y1≈19.13b ; Y5≈20.49b
Fair Price DCF = 477.1 (DCF Value 311.81b / Shares Outstanding 653.6m; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 2.72 | EPS CAGR: -26.97% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.49 | Revenue CAGR: 32.18% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TCOM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle