(TERN) Terns Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: Kinase Inhibitor, Thyroid Agonist, Receptor Agonist, Gipr Modulator
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 86.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.36 |
| Alpha | 694.47 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.035 |
| Beta Downside | 1.564 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 84.95% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.67 |
Description: TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals December 29, 2025
Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TERN) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on small-molecule therapeutics for oncology and metabolic disease. Its lead oncology asset, TERN-701, is an allosteric BCR-ABL tyrosine-kinase inhibitor currently in a Phase 1 trial for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the metabolic space, TERN-501-a thyroid-hormone-receptor-β agonist with liver-targeted exposure-is in a Phase IIa study for metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The company also pursues oral obesity programs: TERN-601 (GLP-1 receptor agonist) and the TERN-800 series (GIPR modulators).
Financially, Terns reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $180 million at the end of Q2 2024, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates (~$20 million per quarter). The stock trades at a market-cap of about $210 million, implying a price-to-cash-burn multiple near 1.2×, which is modest compared with the biotech sector average of ~2.5×.
Sector drivers that could amplify Terns’ upside include: (1) the global obesity market, projected to exceed $200 billion by 2030, creating a sizable addressable pool for oral GLP-1 and GIPR agents; (2) the expanding MASH therapeutic landscape, where FDA guidance in 2023 signaled a willingness to approve non-invasive agents, potentially accelerating timelines for TERN-501; and (3) the continued need for next-generation CML therapies that can overcome resistance to first-generation TKIs, a niche where an allosteric mechanism may differentiate TERN-701.
Given the early-stage nature of its pipeline and the company’s limited cash cushion, investors should monitor upcoming data readouts (e.g., Phase I safety data for TERN-701 in Q1 2025 and Phase IIa efficacy signals for TERN-501 in Q3 2024) as primary catalysts for valuation shifts.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, you may find the ValueRay analyst platform worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: error (cannot be calculated; needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCF/TA: -0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 > 3% & CFO -77.7m > Net Income -94.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 19.52 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (91.7m) vs 12m ago 17.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.0% > 50% (prev 0.35%; Δ -0.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -13.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -101.5m / Interest Expense TTM -7.80m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.94 (Total Current Assets 300.3m - Total Current Liabilities 15.4m) / Total Assets 301.7m |
| B: -1.64 (Retained Earnings -494.1m / Total Assets 301.7m) |
| C: -0.30 (EBIT TTM -102.0m / Avg Total Assets 339.9m) |
| D: -28.09 (Book Value of Equity -494.0m / Total Liabilities 17.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -30.66 = D |
What is the price of TERN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.16%, over one month by -1.44%, over three months by +106.96% and over the past year by +710.52%.
Is TERN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TERN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 58.1 | 53.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 58.1 | 53.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39 | 3.1% |
TERN Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/B = 13.1256
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -102.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -101.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.03m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 459.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.03m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -149.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.43b USD (3.72b + Debt 1.03m - CCE 295.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -13.08 (Ebit TTM -102.0m / Interest Expense TTM -7.80m)
EV/FCF = -44.09x (Enterprise Value 3.43b / FCF TTM -77.7m)
FCF Yield = -2.27% (FCF TTM -77.7m / Enterprise Value 3.43b)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 108.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.35 (Enterprise Value 3.43b / Total Assets 301.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 249.7% (Interest Expense 2.57m / Debt 1.03m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -80.6m (EBIT -102.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 19.52 (Total Current Assets 300.3m / Total Current Liabilities 15.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.03m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 284.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.47 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -149.7m / EBITDA -101.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.93 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -149.7m / FCF TTM -77.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 315.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.78% (Net Income -94.4m / Total Assets 301.7m)
RoE = -29.95% (Net Income TTM -94.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 315.3m)
RoCE = -32.24% (EBIT -102.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 315.3m + L.T.Debt 1.03m))
RoIC = -25.55% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -80.6m / Invested Capital 315.3m)
WACC = 9.73% (E(3.72b)/V(3.72b) * Re(9.73%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.60%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -77.7m)
EPS Correlation: 78.94 | EPS CAGR: 122.2% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -25.04 | Revenue CAGR: -43.60% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.30 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.21 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-10.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%