(TERN) Terns Pharmaceuticals - Ratings and Ratios
Kinase Inhibitor, Thyroid Agonist, Receptor Agonist, Gipr Modulator
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 80.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 122% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.26 |
| Alpha | 583.10 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.704 |
| Beta | 1.096 |
| Beta Downside | 1.642 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 84.95% |
| Mean DD | 44.71% |
| Median DD | 49.17% |
Description: TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals December 29, 2025
Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TERN) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on small-molecule therapeutics for oncology and metabolic disease. Its lead oncology asset, TERN-701, is an allosteric BCR-ABL tyrosine-kinase inhibitor currently in a Phase 1 trial for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the metabolic space, TERN-501-a thyroid-hormone-receptor-β agonist with liver-targeted exposure-is in a Phase IIa study for metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The company also pursues oral obesity programs: TERN-601 (GLP-1 receptor agonist) and the TERN-800 series (GIPR modulators).
Financially, Terns reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $180 million at the end of Q2 2024, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates (~$20 million per quarter). The stock trades at a market-cap of about $210 million, implying a price-to-cash-burn multiple near 1.2×, which is modest compared with the biotech sector average of ~2.5×.
Sector drivers that could amplify Terns’ upside include: (1) the global obesity market, projected to exceed $200 billion by 2030, creating a sizable addressable pool for oral GLP-1 and GIPR agents; (2) the expanding MASH therapeutic landscape, where FDA guidance in 2023 signaled a willingness to approve non-invasive agents, potentially accelerating timelines for TERN-501; and (3) the continued need for next-generation CML therapies that can overcome resistance to first-generation TKIs, a niche where an allosteric mechanism may differentiate TERN-701.
Given the early-stage nature of its pipeline and the company’s limited cash cushion, investors should monitor upcoming data readouts (e.g., Phase I safety data for TERN-701 in Q1 2025 and Phase IIa efficacy signals for TERN-501 in Q3 2024) as primary catalysts for valuation shifts.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, you may find the ValueRay analyst platform worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| error: Net Income check cannot be calculated (needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.26 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.97pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| error: NWC/Revenue cannot be calculated (needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO -77.7m > Net Income -94.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 19.52 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (91.7m) change vs 12m ago 17.84% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| error: Gross Margin (current vs previous) cannot be calculated (needs Total Revenue and Cost Of Revenue) |
| Asset Turnover 0.0% (prev 0.35%; Δ -0.35pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -13.08 (EBITDA TTM -101.5m / Interest Expense TTM -7.80m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -30.66
| (A) 0.94 = (Total Current Assets 300.3m - Total Current Liabilities 15.4m) / Total Assets 301.7m |
| (B) -1.64 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -494.1m / Total Assets 301.7m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.64 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.30 = EBIT TTM -102.0m / Avg Total Assets 339.9m |
| (D) -28.09 = Book Value of Equity -494.0m / Total Liabilities 17.6m |
| Total Rating: -30.66 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 34.67
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.80% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.00 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.47 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -42.46)% |
| 7. RoE -29.95% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -25.04% |
| 9. EPS Trend 78.94% |
What is the price of TERN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.67%, over one month by +46.75%, over three months by +437.95% and over the past year by +629.24%.
Is TERN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TERN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 53.6 | 32.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 53.6 | 32.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.4 | 14.8% |
TERN Fundamental Data Overview December 27, 2025
P/S = 302.636
P/B = 16.2271
Beta = -0.241
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -102.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -101.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.03m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 459.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.03m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -149.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.31b USD (4.61b + Debt 1.03m - CCE 295.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -13.08 (Ebit TTM -102.0m / Interest Expense TTM -7.80m)
FCF Yield = -1.80% (FCF TTM -77.7m / Enterprise Value 4.31b)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 108.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 14.30 (Enterprise Value 4.31b / Total Assets 301.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 249.7% (Interest Expense 2.57m / Debt 1.03m)
Taxrate = -0.19% (negative due to tax credits) (46.0k / -24.6m)
NOPAT = -102.2m (EBIT -102.0m * (1 - -0.19%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 19.52 (Total Current Assets 300.3m / Total Current Liabilities 15.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.03m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 284.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.47 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -149.7m / EBITDA -101.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.93 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -149.7m / FCF TTM -77.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 315.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -31.31% (Net Income -94.4m / Total Assets 301.7m)
RoE = -29.95% (Net Income TTM -94.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 315.3m)
RoCE = -32.24% (EBIT -102.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 315.3m + L.T.Debt 1.03m))
RoIC = -32.41% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -102.2m / Invested Capital 315.3m)
WACC = 10.05% (E(4.61b)/V(4.61b) * Re(10.05%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.60%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -77.7m)
EPS Correlation: 78.94 | EPS CAGR: 122.2% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -25.04 | Revenue CAGR: -43.60% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.30 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.22 | Chg30d=+0.035 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-11.4% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for TERN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle