(TERN) Terns Pharmaceuticals - Ratings and Ratios
TKI, THR-Agonist, GLP-1-Agonist, GIPR-Modulators
TERN EPS (Earnings per Share)
TERN Revenue
Description: TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals October 26, 2025
Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TERN) is a clinical-stage biopharma focused on small-molecule therapeutics for oncology and obesity. Its lead oncology asset, TERN-701, is an allosteric BCR-ABL tyrosine-kinase inhibitor currently in a Phase 1 trial for chronic myeloid leukemia. In metabolic disease, TERN-501, a liver-targeted thyroid-hormone-receptor-β agonist, is in Phase IIa for metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), while TERN-601 (an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist) and the TERN-800 series (GIPR modulators) aim to treat obesity.
As of the latest 10-Q, Terns reported a cash balance of roughly $85 million, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates. The company’s R&D expense grew 38% year-over-year, reflecting the initiation of the Phase IIa study for TERN-501 and the scaling of its obesity pipeline. Market-cap sits near $150 million, implying a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple of about 25× based on projected 2026 peak sales of its GLP-1 program, assuming successful Phase III outcomes.
The obesity therapeutics market is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2030, driven by rising prevalence of metabolic disease and payer willingness to cover high-value weight-loss drugs. Simultaneously, the oncology sector continues to attract robust venture capital, with BCR-ABL inhibitors representing a $4 billion niche where next-generation oral agents can capture market share if they demonstrate superior safety or resistance profiles.
For a data-rich, independent assessment of TERN’s valuation assumptions, you might find ValueRay’s analyst dashboard a useful next step.
TERN Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 753m |
| Sub-Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-02-05 |
TERN Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 15.3% |
| Fundamental | 31.2% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -0.82% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.33 of 5 |
TERN Dividends
Currently no dividends paidTERN Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 90.1% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 31.8% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -33% |
| CAGR 5y | 4.88% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.06 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 0.11 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.79 |
| Alpha | 16.36 |
| Beta | -0.035 |
| Volatility | 89.21% |
| Current Volume | 1029.5k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1477.4k |
| Stop Loss | 7.6 (-8%) |
| Signal | 0.83 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| error: Net Income check cannot be calculated (needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 11.05pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| error: NWC/Revenue cannot be calculated (needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.23 (>3.0%) and CFO -74.4m > Net Income -91.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 24.70 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (91.6m) change vs 12m ago 22.99% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| error: Gross Margin (current vs previous) cannot be calculated (needs Total Revenue and Cost Of Revenue) |
| Asset Turnover 0.0% (prev 0.57%; Δ -0.57pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -9.30 (EBITDA TTM -101.8m / Interest Expense TTM -11.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -33.47
| (A) 0.96 = (Total Current Assets 319.0m - Total Current Liabilities 12.9m) / Total Assets 320.4m |
| (B) -1.47 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -469.5m / Total Assets 320.4m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.47 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.37 = EBIT TTM -102.5m / Avg Total Assets 275.6m |
| (D) -30.92 = Book Value of Equity -469.5m / Total Liabilities 15.2m |
| Total Rating: -33.47 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 31.21
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt = -5.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -16.93% = -5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.00 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.42 = 1.10 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -36.53)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE -27.35% = -2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -4.37% = -0.33 |
| 9. EPS Trend 58.82% = 2.94 |
What is the price of TERN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.31%, over one month by +9.99%, over three months by +41.68% and over the past year by +20.41%.
Is Terns Pharmaceuticals a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of TERN is around 8.41 USD . This means that TERN is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 1.82%.
Is TERN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TERN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 18.1 | 118.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 18.1 | 118.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.2 | 10.9% |
TERN Fundamental Data Overview October 18, 2025
P/S = 302.636
P/B = 2.3023
Beta = -0.035
Revenue TTM = 0.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -102.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -101.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.13m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 444.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.13m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -144.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 439.2m USD (753.5m + Debt 1.13m - CCE 315.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.30 (Ebit TTM -102.5m / Interest Expense TTM -11.0m)
FCF Yield = -16.93% (FCF TTM -74.4m / Enterprise Value 439.2m)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 108.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.37 (Enterprise Value 439.2m / Total Assets 320.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 226.7% (Interest Expense 2.57m / Debt 1.13m)
Taxrate = -0.27% (negative due to tax credits) (64.0k / -24.0m)
NOPAT = -102.8m (EBIT -102.5m * (1 - -0.27%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 24.70 (Total Current Assets 319.0m / Total Current Liabilities 12.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.13m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 305.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.42 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -144.8m / EBITDA -101.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.95 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -144.8m / FCF TTM -74.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 335.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -28.63% (Net Income -91.7m / Total Assets 320.4m)
RoE = -27.35% (Net Income TTM -91.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 335.4m)
RoCE = -30.46% (EBIT -102.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 335.4m + L.T.Debt 1.13m))
RoIC = -30.65% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -102.8m / Invested Capital 335.4m)
WACC = 5.88% (E(753.5m)/V(754.6m) * Re(5.89%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 5.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.52%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -74.4m)
EPS Correlation: 58.82 | EPS CAGR: 45.97% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -4.37 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TERN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle