TFSL Stock Analysis: TFS Financial | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.571m USD | 12M Return: 32.6% | US87240R1077 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.9M
EPS Trend: 91.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is a Cleveland, Ohio-based retail consumer banking company that has operated since 1938. It functions primarily as the holding company for Third Federal Savings and Loan Association, a thrift institution, and operates under a mutual holding company (MHC) structure-a regulatory framework historically common among U.S. savings and loan associations.
The companys core business is gathering retail deposits and originating residential mortgage loans. Its deposit offerings include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, along with certificates of deposit. On the lending side, it provides residential real estate mortgages, residential construction loans, purchase mortgages, home equity loans and lines of credit, and first mortgage refinance loans. It also offers escrow and settlement services to support its mortgage operations.
Classified within the Financials sector as a Regional Bank, TFSL is a mid-cap stock that has been listed on NASDAQ since its 2007 IPO.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Mortgage origination volume declines amid elevated rates and housing slowdown
- Home equity and construction loan credit quality deteriorates in softening housing market
- MHC mutual holding structure limits capital return and dividend growth flexibility
| Net Income: 102.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.21k% < 20% (prev -1.25k%; Δ 43.93% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 97.8m > Net Income 102.1m |
| Net Debt (7.03b) to EBITDA (150.6m): 46.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (280.2m) vs 12m ago 0.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.05% > 18% (prev 39.58%; Δ 1.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.62% > 50% (prev 4.49%; Δ 0.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 129.5m / Interest Expense TTM 482.2m) |
| A: -0.55 (Total Current Assets 92.3m - Total Current Liabilities 9.99b) / Total Assets 18.1b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 977.6m / Total Assets 18.1b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 129.5m / Avg Total Assets 17.7b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 16.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.24 = D |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 63.7m/60.4m, Revenue 818.1m/779.7m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 39.58% / 41.05%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 818.1m / 779.7m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 102.1m - CFO 97.8m) / TA 18.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.77 with a total of 628,965 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.95%, over one month by -1.77%, over three months by -4.41% and over the past year by +32.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.10 (which is 4% or 2 ATR below the current price).
TFS Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TFSL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | 13.3% |
P/E Trailing = 45.2778
P/E Forward = 76.9231
P/S = 13.1648
P/B = 2.364
P/EG = 72.6154
Revenue TTM = 818.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 129.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 150.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.86b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.20b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.06b USD (corrected: LT Debt 5.86b + ST Debt 1.20b)
Net Debt = 7.03b USD (calculated: Debt 7.06b - CCE 28.6m)
Enterprise Value = 11.6b USD (4.57b + Debt 7.06b - CCE 28.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.27 (Ebit TTM 129.5m / Interest Expense TTM 482.2m)
EV/FCF = 134.5x (Enterprise Value 11.6b / FCF TTM 86.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.74% (FCF TTM 86.3m / Enterprise Value 11.6b)
FCF Margin = 10.55% (FCF TTM 86.3m / Revenue TTM 818.1m)
Net Margin = 12.48% (Net Income TTM 102.1m / Revenue TTM 818.1m)
Gross Margin = 41.05% ((Revenue TTM 818.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 482.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.26% (prev 42.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 11.6b / Total Assets 18.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.83% (Interest Expense 482.2m / Debt 7.06b)
Taxrate = 21.16% (27.4m / 129.5m)
NOPAT = 102.1m (EBIT 129.5m * (1 - 21.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 92.3m / Total Current Liabilities 9.99b)
Debt / Equity = 3.61 (Debt 7.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 46.70 (Net Debt 7.03b / EBITDA 150.6m)
Debt / FCF = 81.49 (Net Debt 7.03b / FCF TTM 86.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.58% (Net Income 102.1m / Total Assets 18.1b)
RoE = 5.32% (Net Income TTM 102.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.92b)
RoCE = 1.67% (EBIT 129.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.92b + L.T.Debt 5.86b))
RoIC = 1.10% (NOPAT 102.1m / Invested Capital 9.25b)
WACC = 6.17% (E(4.57b)/V(11.6b) * Re(7.39%) + D(7.06b)/V(11.6b) * Rd(6.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 53.30 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈61.7m ; Y1≈70.7m ; Y5≈104.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.57b - Net Debt 7.03b = -5.46b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 91.94 | EPS CAGR: 10.88% | SUE: 3.27 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.31 | Revenue CAGR: 8.54% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+5.56% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+7.46% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+5.41% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+7.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)