TFSL Stock Analysis: TFS Financial | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.983m USD | 12M Return: 44.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.8M
EPS Trend: 78.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TFS Financial Corporation is a Cleveland, Ohio-based retail consumer bank operating primarily through its subsidiary Third Federal Savings and Loan Association. Founded in 1938, the company provides a full suite of deposit products-including savings, checking, money market, IRA, and certificates of deposit-alongside a mortgage-focused lending portfolio covering residential purchase, construction, refinance, and home equity loans.
The company is structured as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC, reflecting the mutual holding company (MHC) structure historically used by U.S. thrifts to retain depositor ownership while accessing public capital markets (TFSL IPOd in 2007). Its narrow concentration in residential mortgage lending and traditional deposit gathering is characteristic of the savings and loan business model within the Regional Banks sub-industry.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts deposit pricing
- Residential mortgage origination volume declines with higher rates
- Home equity loan growth offset by credit quality concerns
| Net Income: 93.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.26k% < 20% (prev -1.27k%; Δ 8.98% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 92.0m > Net Income 93.0m |
| Net Debt (6.82b) to EBITDA (142.4m): 47.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (279.9m) vs 12m ago 0.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.13% > 18% (prev 39.37%; Δ 1.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.71% > 50% (prev 4.51%; Δ 0.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 118.1m / Interest Expense TTM 477.9m) |
| A: -0.59 (Total Current Assets 85.0m - Total Current Liabilities 10.4b) / Total Assets 17.5b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 962.2m / Total Assets 17.5b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 118.1m / Avg Total Assets 17.3b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.92b / Total Liabilities 15.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.51 = D |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 59.9m/58.0m, Revenue 814.4m/772.4m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 39.37% / 41.13%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 814.4m / 772.4m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 93.0m - CFO 92.0m) / TA 17.5b) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.78 with a total of 791,989 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.43%, over one month by +9.68%, over three months by +26.22% and over the past year by +44.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 17.30 (which is 2.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
TFS Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TFSL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.5 | -12.8% |
P/E Trailing = 53.8485
P/E Forward = 76.9231
P/S = 14.9342
P/B = 2.6023
P/EG = 72.6154
Revenue TTM = 814.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 118.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 142.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.67b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.85b USD (corrected: LT Debt 5.17b + ST Debt 1.67b)
Net Debt = 6.82b USD (calculated: Debt 6.85b - CCE 25.1m)
Enterprise Value = 11.8b USD (4.98b + Debt 6.85b - CCE 25.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.25 (Ebit TTM 118.1m / Interest Expense TTM 477.9m)
EV/FCF = 143.5x (Enterprise Value 11.8b / FCF TTM 82.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.70% (FCF TTM 82.3m / Enterprise Value 11.8b)
FCF Margin = 10.10% (FCF TTM 82.3m / Revenue TTM 814.4m)
Net Margin = 11.42% (Net Income TTM 93.0m / Revenue TTM 814.4m)
Gross Margin = 41.13% ((Revenue TTM 814.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 479.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.01% (prev 41.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 11.8b / Total Assets 17.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.98% (Interest Expense 477.9m / Debt 6.85b)
Taxrate = 21.25% (25.1m / 118.1m)
NOPAT = 93.0m (EBIT 118.1m * (1 - 21.25%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 85.0m / Total Current Liabilities 10.4b)
Debt / Equity = 3.56 (Debt 6.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 47.89 (Net Debt 6.82b / EBITDA 142.4m)
Debt / FCF = 82.92 (Net Debt 6.82b / FCF TTM 82.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.54% (Net Income 93.0m / Total Assets 17.5b)
RoE = 4.89% (Net Income TTM 93.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.90b)
RoCE = 1.67% (EBIT 118.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.90b + L.T.Debt 5.17b))
RoIC = 0.53% (NOPAT 93.0m / Invested Capital 17.5b)
WACC = 6.37% (E(4.98b)/V(11.8b) * Re(7.57%) + D(6.85b)/V(11.8b) * Rd(6.98%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 0.15%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.27% ; FCFF base≈87.6m ; Y1≈77.6m ; Y5≈63.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.02b - Net Debt 6.82b = -5.80b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 78.00 | EPS CAGR: 6.94% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.63 | Revenue CAGR: 11.16% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+1.52% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.7% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+4.23% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+10.4% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)