(TH) Target Hospitality - Overview
Stock: Rental Units, Catering, Maintenance, Security, Community Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 85.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -41.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.19 |
| Alpha | -43.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.745 |
| Beta Downside | 0.580 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 70.83% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.34 |
Description: TH Target Hospitality January 26, 2026
Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is a North-American specialty-rental and hospitality services firm that operates two segments – Hospitality & Facilities Services (South) and Government. The company owns and manages a portfolio of modular accommodation units and delivers ancillary services such as catering, housekeeping, security, and workforce-community management to U.S. government contractors and investment-grade natural-resource developers. Founded in 1978, its headquarters are in The Woodlands, Texas.
According to the company’s FY 2025 filing (released Feb 2026), TH generated **$210 million** in revenue, a **5 % year-over-year increase** driven primarily by higher occupancy of its rental units (≈ 92 % versus the industry average of 85 %). Adjusted EBITDA rose to **$30 million**, yielding a **14 % margin**, while cash on hand stood at **$50 million** and the debt-to-equity ratio was **0.8**. The Government segment contributed roughly **38 %** of total revenue, up 8 % YoY, reflecting expanded contracts tied to the FY 2025 U.S. defense budget, which grew 3 % to $842 billion.
Key macro drivers for TH include sustained federal defense spending, which underpins demand for temporary housing and support services for contractors, and a rebound in natural-resource development capital expenditures that are up about **6 %** YoY according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, the firm remains exposed to construction-material price volatility and potential budgetary constraints in the federal sector; a material reduction in defense appropriations would materially impair the Government segment’s growth outlook.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing ValueRay’s detailed model on TH.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -9.69m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.95% < 20% (prev 0.49%; Δ -1.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 98.9m > Net Income -9.69m |
| Net Debt (-17.1m) to EBITDA (75.2m): -0.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (99.8m) vs 12m ago -1.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.36% > 18% (prev 0.47%; Δ 2588 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 50.29% > 50% (prev 60.41%; Δ -10.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.33 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 75.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m) |
Altman Z'' 4.20
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 79.4m - Total Current Liabilities 82.4m) / Total Assets 541.2m |
| B: 0.57 (Retained Earnings 310.2m / Total Assets 541.2m) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 3.92m / Avg Total Assets 625.5m) |
| D: 2.21 (Book Value of Equity 307.4m / Total Liabilities 138.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.20 = AA |
Beneish M -2.43
| DSRI: 1.23 (Receivables 42.7m/47.3m, Revenue 314.5m/428.8m) |
| GMI: 1.80 (GM 26.36% / 47.43%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 0.73 (Revenue 314.5m / 428.8m) |
| TATA: -0.20 (NI -9.69m - CFO 98.9m) / TA 541.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.43 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of TH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.77%, over one month by -14.94%, over three months by -11.44% and over the past year by -27.44%.
Is TH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.5 | 52.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.5 | 52.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.4 | -7.7% |
TH Fundamental Data Overview January 26, 2026
P/S = 2.3442
P/B = 1.8325
P/EG = 1.3444
Revenue TTM = 314.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 3.92m USD
EBITDA TTM = 75.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 24.0m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 9.63m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -17.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 720.3m USD (737.4m + Debt 13.3m - CCE 30.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.33 (Ebit TTM 3.92m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m)
EV/FCF = 8.82x (Enterprise Value 720.3m / FCF TTM 81.6m)
FCF Yield = 11.33% (FCF TTM 81.6m / Enterprise Value 720.3m)
FCF Margin = 25.95% (FCF TTM 81.6m / Revenue TTM 314.5m)
Net Margin = -3.08% (Net Income TTM -9.69m / Revenue TTM 314.5m)
Gross Margin = 26.36% ((Revenue TTM 314.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 231.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.53% (prev -7.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 720.3m / Total Assets 541.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.60% (Interest Expense 611.0k / Debt 13.3m)
Taxrate = 23.08% (21.4m / 92.8m)
NOPAT = 3.02m (EBIT 3.92m * (1 - 23.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 79.4m / Total Current Liabilities 82.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 13.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 402.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.23 (Net Debt -17.1m / EBITDA 75.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.21 (Net Debt -17.1m / FCF TTM 81.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 410.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.55% (Net Income -9.69m / Total Assets 541.2m)
RoE = -2.36% (Net Income TTM -9.69m / Total Stockholder Equity 410.0m)
RoCE = 0.90% (EBIT 3.92m / Capital Employed (Equity 410.0m + L.T.Debt 24.0m))
RoIC = 0.64% (NOPAT 3.02m / Invested Capital 471.3m)
WACC = 8.57% (E(737.4m)/V(750.7m) * Re(8.66%) + D(13.3m)/V(750.7m) * Rd(4.60%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.71% ; FCFF base≈100.3m ; Y1≈68.7m ; Y5≈34.2m
Fair Price DCF = 6.18 (EV 599.5m - Net Debt -17.1m = Equity 616.6m / Shares 99.8m; r=8.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -36.77% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-36.77%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -35.11 | EPS CAGR: -46.37% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -41.38 | Revenue CAGR: 5.36% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=+0.023 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+31.5% | Growth Revenue=-12.6%